Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Bundesliga Der Klassiker

Thomas Tuchel's first game in charge of Bayern Munich will be against his old club in Germany's biggest rivalry.

No pressure.

The former PSG and Chelsea manager is set to begin life as Bayern boss in Der Klassiker as the reigning German champions host leaders Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga action from Allianz Arena on Saturday. Tuchel took over from Julian Nagelsmann in a shocking move that was both unexpected and expensive.

Dortmund lead a fierce Bundesliga title race by a single point over second-place Bayern, as both clubs have been jockeying for position in recent weeks. Third-place Union Berlin and a host of clubs just below them are within shouting distance, but they'll need both frontrunners to slip up if they're to re-enter the title picture.

Der Klassiker is already one of football's wildest rivalry matchups, and now with the added managerial wrinkle, it will be a true spectacle this time around.

The Sporting News football betting expert Kyle Bonn shares his best bets, props, and high risk/high return fliers for some of the biggest matches in the sport each week. Since the start of 2023, his best bets have hit 53.7% of the time, while his overall selections have generated a profit of over 35 units thus far. He has also correctly predicted 39 of 66 match outcomes via his three-way moneyline leans to date.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund odds

Despite Borussia Dortmund's excellent league record in 2023 and Bayern's current managerial upheaval, the hosts are listed as huge favourites. This is likely due in part to Bayern's status as a consistent league champion, and their long unbeaten streak against Dortmund that stretches back nearly a full four years.

More notably, goals are expected to pour in, as the over 3.5 total goals is heavily juiced, and both teams are widely expected to find the back of the net.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: Three things to know

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund match facts

• Date: Saturday, April 1
• Kickoff Time: 12:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. BST / 2:30 am AEST (Thu, Dec. 15)
• Location: Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)
• Official: Marco Fritz
• Last meeting: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Bayern Munich (Oct. 8, 2022 | Bundesliga)

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund team news

Bayern Munich are missing goalkeeper Manuel Neuer and defender Lucas Hernandez to season-ending injuries, but the issue that could cause the most problems for the hosts in this match is the potential absence of Jamal Musiala. The young playmaker has a hamstring injury that kept him out of international duty, and his absence has been notable when out, but he's returned to training and could make a comeback this weekend. Leon Goretzka is also a doubt with an ankle injury.

The visitors at Allianz Arena have a slew of injuries to contend with, especially in the attack, but many are close to a return and could feature. In-form forward Karim Adeyemi reportedly suffered a setback in his recovery from a hamstring injury though the club denied that, while Julian Brandt, Youssoufa Moukoko, and Gregor Kobel are all expected to return from injury for the match. Jamie Bynoe-Gittens will be absent as he recovers from a shoulder injury, but Nico Schlotterbeck is expected to be available despite departing national team duty early.

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Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund key stats

• Borussia Dortmund are suffering through a nine-match winless streak against Bayern across all competitions, their longest in the Der Klassiker rivalry since a 10-match barren streak that stretched from 1998 to 2002. They ended an eight-match losing streak with the 2-2 draw last time out.
• Dortmund have not won at Allianz Arena since a 3-2 victory in the 2016/17 DFB-Pokal semifinals, a seven-match stretch of all defeats. In those seven games, BVB have conceded an average of 3.85 goals to Bayern.
• Since the World Cup break concluded, Borussia Dortmund have collected 28 points in Bundesliga play from a possible 30, the most in the German top flight. A 2-2 draw with Schalke in mid-March is the only blemish on their otherwise spotless domestic record in 2023.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prediction

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+400)
• Against the spread lean (handicap): Borussia Dortmund +1.5 (-150)
• Score prediction: Bayern Munich 2-2 Borussia Dortmund

This is one of the most difficult matches to predict from a betting perspective, largely due to the significant amount of injury questions on both sides, and the new manager situation at Bayern.

Given those, there's value on a Borussia Dortmund upset. While selecting Dortmund on the three-way moneyline might not be the best option, a double chance selection is probably the way to go here, at roughly +160 odds

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund best bet

• Pick: Over 3.5 bookings
• Odds: -138 (FanDuel)

While we'd love to back an absurd amount of goals to be scored, there's just no value. Taking the over 3.5 goals is always a high bar to clear, and unless you're getting plus odds, it's just not worth the risk no matter how attack-minded the two sides are. Especially given the question marks around Jamal Musiala's injury, it's just not an option here.

Instead, it's likely this match will get testy. It's a rivalry game, and the match also has some added spice. The two teams are in a bitter title fight, and they both feature fiery men in charge in Thomas Tuchel (a former Dortmund boss) and Marco Rose, who can both grow intense at times.

Four of the last six games between these two teams have gone over this yellow card total, and there will be too much venom in this match to keep from boiling over. The 3.5 bookings isn't exactly a high bar to clear for both teams combined.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prop bet

• Pick: Emre Can to be booked
• Odds: +220 (FanDuel)

See above. Add in that Can has a yellow card in each of the last three games against Bayern, and it just makes too much sense, especially if Jamal Musiala is healthy enough to play.

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prop bet

• Pick: Raphael Guerreiro to score or assist a goal
• Odds: +290 (FanDuel)

Few players have been more important to Borussia Dortmund's recent attacking explosion than wide man Raphael Guerreiro. He has an insane nine goal contributions in the club's last five matches, including seven of those as assists.

Last time out against Koln in a 6-1 romp, he contributed to half the output, scoring one and assisting two more. Guerreiro has developed a wonderful partnership on the left flank with Marco Reus, and with Donyell Malen on the other side not nearly proving as consistent a threat, Dortmund have leaned heavily on the left side of the field for attacking output.

Not only that, but Guerreiro loves playing Bayern Munich, scoring a goal and assisting four more in 10 career matches against the German giants. These are great odds for a player in serious form.

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