One of football's most iconic rivalries resumes as Real Madrid and Barcelona meet for the first time this season, set to clash on Saturday in La Liga play.
As is so often the case, El Clasico will have enormous title implications in the Spanish top flight, with Real Madrid sitting atop the table and Barcelona just a point behind in third. The winner of this emotional meeting could finish the day at the summit of the standings, although surprise contender Girona could see this as an opportunity to snatch first place themselves.
Barcelona are at their temporary home, Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys, as construction at Camp Nou continues. They are stricken by injury as a number of key players, including Robert Lewandowski, are struggling for fitness. That has pressed young academy products into action, with teenagers Fermin Lopez, Lamine Yamal, and Marc Guiu being brought along.
Los Blancos, meanwhile, are riding the Jude Bellingham tidal wave, as the young English star has shone brilliantly this season, leading La Liga with eight goals through the first 10 games.
MORE: Will Jude Bellingham be fit to start El Clasico?
Barcelona vs Real Madrid odds
This match is considered as even as they come, with Barcelona and Real Madrid sporting nearly identical moneyline odds.
However, one thing is clear: the betting market has a strong belief that goals will be scored by both sides. The over is heavily favored, while both teams to score is believed to be a strong possibility. This is despite the fact that Real Madrid and Barcelona have combined to concede just 17 goals in 20 league matches, boasting the first- and third-best defensive records in the Spanish top flight.
| Barcelona win | Draw | Madrid win | Both teams to score Y / N | Over / Under 2.5 goals | FCB -0.5 | RMA +0.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM (USA) | +150 | +260 | +160 | -210 / +140 | -175 / +125 | +138 | -200 |
Barcelona vs Real Madrid match facts
- Date: Saturday, October 28, 2023
- Kickoff Time: 4:15 p.m. local (10:15 a.m. ET / 7:15 a.m. PT)
- Location: Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys (Barcelona, Spain)
- Official: Jesus Gil Manzano
- Last meeting: Barcelona 0-4 Real Madrid (Apr. 5, 2023 | Copa del Rey semifinal)
Barcelona vs Real Madrid key stats
- Barcelona have won all seven home matches this season across all competitions by a 19-3 combined score. The last time Barcelona failed to win at home was back in May when they fell to Real Sociedad 2-1 at Camp Nou.
- Jude Bellingham has been the best finisher in La Liga this season. He has scored eight goals on just 4.05 xG (expected goals), the best differential in the Spanish top flight, while also logging the best shot placement by turning his 4.05 xG into 6.66 post-shot xGOT (expected goals on target).
- There has been a winner in the past 11 Clasico matchups across all competitions, the longest stretch of games in this rivalry without a draw since they went 17 meetings with a winner through the 1960s.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid team news
Xavi will be having headaches about his injury-stricken squad for such a critical match. Missing from this game are stars like Raphinha, Pedri, Frenkie de Jong, and Jules Kounde. Talisman striker Robert Lewandowski has missed the past few weeks with an ankle issue, and while there's very little chance of him starting this match, reports claim he's pushing to make an appearance off the bench. They will also be sweating the fitness of Joao Felix who came off injured midweek but insists he will be fit to play a part here.
Real Madrid had their own injury issues earlier this year, but they seem to have largely recovered. The only players absent for Los Blancos on this trip are Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militao who have both been out all season thanks to torn ACLs. Otherwise, Carlo Ancelotti has his full complement of players at his disposal, as Jude Bellingham is believed to have avoided a spell on the sidelines despite coming off midweek with an adductor issue.
MORE: Updated Premier League table with title, Champions League, and relegation race breakdowns
Barcelona vs Real Madrid prediction
- Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (+160)
- Score prediction: Barcelona 0-2 Real Madrid
The better team doesn't always win this rivalry match, but when predicting how these games will go, there's no denying that Barcelona are vulnerable right now. Without Robert Lewandowski, Pedri, and Frenkie de Jong, their buildup has been quite clearly stunted.
The Blaugrana have been able to create chances against lesser domestic opponents in recent weeks, such as Granada, Sevilla, and Mallorca, but they were unable to put a defensively porous Shakhtar Donetsk away in their latest Champions League tussle, leading to a nervy finish. That game showed weaknesses that Madrid should be able to exploit.
While Barcelona possess one of the league's best defenses, they were unlocked by Shakhtar's chaotic buildup a few days ago, indicating the likes of Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Jr could take advantage.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid best bet
- Pick: Barcelona under 1.5 goals
- Odds: -135 (BetMGM)
While these two sides often produce thrilling, goal-filled matches that live up to the exceptional hype, there's simply too much value on the under, as many reasons exist for why this match could buck the trend.
Barcelona's defensive structure in league play under Xavi has garnered much praise, but it is in fact Real Madrid who sport the best concession record in the Spanish top flight, having allowed just seven goals this season through 10 matches. Despite an early injury to Thibaut Courtois, loan acquisition Kepa Arrizabalaga has been exceptional, saving nearly three full goals compared to the 9.97 xGOT he's faced in league play.
Given Barca's injury issues up top, with Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha absent, plus a less-than-fit Joao Felix starting alongside a young, inexperienced crop of academy products, it's hard to imagine the hosts finding too many chances against Real Madrid's stout defensive unit.
If you want to be bold and play the game's under 2.5 goals mark at +125, which presents exceptional value, that's also a good move, but we'll stick with Barcelona here who are unlikely to breach Madrid on multiple occasions.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid prop bet
- Pick: Jude Bellingham to score or assist a goal
- Odds: +145 (FanDuel)
Jude Bellingham not only cannot stop scoring, but he continues to crop up at the most critical of moments. Of his 11 goals for Real Madrid this season across La Liga and Champions League play, an incredible eight of them have either tied a match, given Madrid a lead, or stood as the eventual game-winning goal.
Not only is there no more in-form player in Spain than the young English midfielder, but there's no more clutch player in the world right now. In the season's biggest game to date, these are sensational odds on which to back Bellingham.
You can get Bellingham to score anytime at +188, or even to score last at +550 — Bellingham has been last goal scorer in five of the nine matches in which he's found the net — but this is by far the safest play that still presents considerable value.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid flier bet
- Pick: Dani Carvajal, Eduardo Camavinga, Gavi all to be carded
- Odds: +980 (FanDuel)
While neither of these sides pick up bookings on a regular basis, when they get together the cards tend to fly. Parlaying three players together to be cautioned is a great way to get solid longshot odds. Thirty-two yellow cards have been shown in their past four matchups, including a massive 11 in their last meeting.
Dani Carvajal has 10 bookings in 25 career Clasico matches and could be up against the young, pacey Fermin Lopez on the wing. Gavi has three yellow cards in eight career games against Real Madrid, and has struggled with discipline this season. Eduardo Camavinga has also been chaotic, booked three times in his previous six matches including each of his last two.
As always, wait until lineups are out to lock in these plays, as they are very reliant on the players being deployed from the off, but if they are indeed selected, they are some of the most likely candidates. Add in that referee Jesus Gil Manzano averages 4.8 yellow cards per match this season, and booked four Barcelona players last time he officiated a match of theirs, and this could be prime for another card fest.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid longshot bet
- Pick: Federico Valverde to score from outside the box
- Odds: +1000 (FanDuel)
How about a longshot bet about long shots? Federico Valverde is Real Madrid's long-range specialist and could be a difference-maker in this match. He's got three goals in 15 career games against Barcelona, with one of them coming from distance.
Across last season plus the start of the current campaign, Valverde has taken an incredible 52 shots from outside the penalty area, scoring five goals on just 1.32 xG. His lone La Liga goal this season came from beyond the 18-yard line, a 46th-minute equalizer against Real Sociedad to spark Madrid's turnaround. He also forced an own goal off goalkeeper Alex Meret after his thunderous shot came back off the post in Madrid's Champions League win at Napoli.
The Uruguayan is a sharpshooter, and he knows it.
Barcelona vs Real Madrid live stream, TV channel
MORE: Watch Premier League matches live with Fubo in USA
| TV channel | Streaming | |
|---|---|---|
| USA | ESPN Deportes | Fubo, ESPN+, WatchESPN |
| Canada | — | TSN+ |
