The 2023 Asian Cup gets underway as Australia, looking towards a possible knockout stage run, meets heavy underdogs India in group-stage action from Qatar on Saturday.
Australia will be hoping to prove itself as one of the title contenders in this tournament, but cannot look past its first group opponent.
India is in the early stages of a program build, and could potentially spring some upsets in this tournament based on recent results. Croatian manager Igor Stimac, in charge since 2019, oversaw promising results through the 2023 calendar year that could set them up well here.
India managed to beat 107th-ranked Lebanon 2-0 in a four-team tournament last summer, and they played to a friendly draw with 63rd-ranked Iraq in September. While those results don't necessarily prove they can test a true title hopeful in Australia, it does mean their football standards are on the rise, which could make things challenging if they bring their best to a more high-profile opponent.
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Australia vs India prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Draw (+1150)
- Score prediction: Australia 1-1 India
While there's likely little benefit in playing the moneyline in this match, at such longshot odds, there could be some value in taking India to spring an early group stage upset.
India has improved remarkably from a defensive perspective under their Croatian head coach and can score if given the chance. Australia, meanwhile, doesn't possess a barn-burning attack and is prone to the occasional defensive lapse against lesser opponents.
Australia is likely the winner, but at the odds given, it's reasonable to play for the draw in a match that has trap game written all over it for the Socceroos, who seem to play their best against more difficult opponents. An adverse result in this match won't doom Australia to a disappointing group stage exit, but it could make the difference for India in their quest for a knockout stage spot via the third-place table.
| Sports Interaction (Canada) | |
| Australia win | -3000 |
| Draw | +1150 |
| India win | +4000 |
| Both teams to score Y/N | +375 / -650 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | +105 / -145 |
| Australia -2.5 goals | -160 |
| India +2.5 goals | +115 |
Australia vs India match facts
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 13, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 2:30 p.m. local (6:30 a.m. ET / 3:30 a.m. PT)
- Location: Ahmad bin Ali Stadium (Al Rayyan, Qatar)
- Referee: Yoshimi Yamashita (JPN)s
- Last meeting: India 0-4 Australia (Jan. 10, 2011 | Asian Cup)
Australia vs India: best bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
- Odds: +165 (Sports Interaction)
Australia may come out guns blazing and stamp their title contentions on this tournament, but while we expect India to put up a fight, we might as well play the under as well, which is how the Blue Tigers will manage to keep close.
If this becomes a shootout, it means Australia is winning in a landslide, but for India to manage the game throughout, they will need to defend at their best. Their recent results show they are capable of doing that.
Australia, meanwhile, had a poor 2023, although many of their adverse results came against some of the world's top sides as they put together a difficult friendly schedule. They topped Ecuador 3-1 in a March friendly, but then fell 2-1 in a second meeting days later, plus defeats to Argentina and England as well as a 2-2 draw with Mexico.
In matches we can make more use of, Australia's 2022 proved even more that this could be a low-scoring affair. Australia's pair of World Cup victories against Tunisia and Denmark both came by 1-0 results, while they failed to score against Japan or Saudi Arabia in World Cup qualifying earlier in the year. You can play under 3.5 goals at -145 odds, but if you're backing this game to be three or fewer goals, you might as well go for two or fewer, as really the only benefit you gain from the lesser value is the possibility of a 2-1 result.
Australia vs India prop bet
- Pick: Mitchell Duke first goalscorer
- Odds: +280 (Sports Interaction)
While we don't usually recommend taking first or last goal scorer selections, as like assists they can be prone to excessive randomness. Yet in this match with such lopsided odds, it's one of the only ways to find true value.
As we've already backed Mitchell Duke as a dark horse candidate to win top goal scorer in the tournament, we expect him to serve as Australia's main threat in this tournament, and thereby in this match. Even if this becomes a low-scoring affair, expecting India to keep a clean sheet is probably too much to ask.
Duke had a great finish to his club season with Japanese side Machida Zelvia, and while he has developed into a starter for the Socceroos after starting his national team career as a super-sub, he is usually not a 90-minute player. He scored the 23rd-minute opener against Tunisia in the World Cup last time they played in Qatar, and he found the net against Bahrain in Australia's pre-Asian Cup friendly a few days ago.
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