Who will be AFCON 2024 top goal scorer? Prediction, odds, best bets for Golden Boot at 2023 Africa Cup of Nations

The Africa Cup of Nations once again sees the best African players from top clubs across the world convene for the continent's international championship.

Played every two years, the 2023 tournament has been shifted to early 2024 thanks to delays in the schedule dating back to the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, players at European clubs are in the midst of their league seasons, which could make for an interesting competition.

The Africa Cup of Nations is traditionally a low-scoring affair, with the 2021 tournament featuring just 100 goals in 52 matches, an average of less than two goals per game.

Thus, finding a top goal scorer is a difficult task, knowing that one big game could set a player up well to emerge with the tournament's Golden Boot award in the end.

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Africa Cup of Nations 2024 top goalscorer odds

Given the low-scoring nature of this tournament historically, it's anyone's guess from an individual perspective, and thus choosing from the list of potential top goal scorers in AFCON 2023 is fraught with danger. Everywhere you look there are players either in-form players in bad national team situations, or top national team sides sporting players in adverse club environments. There's no clear favourite — which makes this such a fun exercise.

Mohamed Salah of Liverpool tops the list, and understandably so as he has led the Reds to the top of the Premier League table with yet another prolific campaign. However, he plays for a national team that is defensive to a fault, famously scoring just four goals in their entire 2021 tournament as they went all the way to the final, playing out an outlandish three scoreless draws from four knockout games.

Salah's former teammate Sadio Mane started well at his new Saudi club Al Nassr, but he has slumped into horrific goal scoring form through the past three months. Add in that he managed just three goals in the 2021 competition despite securing the trophy, and he's another dangerous pick. Victor Osimhen has taken a major step back with Napoli this year, and Nigeria have struggled to score goals in recent months, now forced to press on without the injured Victor Boniface.

Moroccan striker Youssef En-Nesyri is in a relegation battle at Spanish side Sevilla, while Sebastian Haller has yet to score a Bundesliga goal this year at Borussia Dortmund. Hakim Ziyech was sent back to Chelsea after a miserable loan spell at Galatasaray, 2021 winner Vincent Aboubakar hasn't scored for club or country since early October. Ghana forward Inaki Williams has been one of La Liga's breakout players but he'll struggle for chances in his national team squad.

Algeria appear to be primed for a high-scoring group stage performance, but there's no clear option in front of net to lap up goals. Riyad Mahrez is in great club form with Al Ahly, but he plays a far more creative role with Algeria, providing service for ageing strike partners Islam Slimani and Baghdad Bounedjah who share the scoring duties up front.

AFCON 2024 top goal scorer prediction, best bet

Given that there are no great choices for the Africa Cup of Nations top scorer in 2024, we have to dig a bit deeper. Sometimes the host nation can make a run, as both Vincent Aboubakar and Karl Toko Ekambi did for Cameroon in 2021, but Ivory Coast striker Haller is struggling for fitness. His backup, 19-year-old Karim Konate, is a candidate for a breakout tournament, but he's too unproven to back and isn't an available selection regardless.

Algeria are in some of the best goal scoring form of anyone in the AFCON field this year, which matters a lot in a tournament that often lacks attacking flair. As the aging Islam Slimani slips to a second-choice role, Baghdad Bounedjah has stepped in to the main striker spot and is primed to score in bunches.

Riyad Mahrez always looms as Algeria's main star, but he often plays a creative role alongside his goal scoring presence, and he should provide Bounedjah with plenty of opportunities in front of net. The Al Sadd frontman has five goals in 10 matches to start the Qatari league season, and he scored just eight minutes into Algeria's 4-0 pre-tournament friendly win over Burundi.

Slimani and Mahrez both serve as a threat to snatch goals off Bounedjah, but there should be enough to go around — Algeria have scored 12 goals in their last four matches, and are afforded a soft group stage schedule with games against Angola and Mauritania that provide chances to run up the score.

Prediction: Baghdad Bounedjah (+1800 on FanDuel)

Africa Cup of Nations 2024 live stream, TV channel

The 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, played in early 2024, will be broadcast in the United States and Canada on beIN Sports, which is available to stream on both Fubo USA and Fubo Canada. 

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In the United Kingdom, Sky Sports has the broadcast rights to the CAF international championship, with streaming available on its internet platform Sky GO.