AC Milan vs Salernitana prediction, odds, best bets, TV channel, live stream for Serie A match

Both sides are fighting for their lives in various regards as AC Milan host fellow Italian side Salernitana in Serie A play on Monday.

Milan are clinging to a Champions League spot by the skin of their teeth, level with Roma on both points and goal differential but ahead on head-to-head results. In a perfect encapsulation of that mentality, the Italian club stayed alive in European play by hanging on for a 0-0 draw at Tottenham to advance to the Champions League quarterfinals midweek, but it wasn't exactly pretty. 

With every goal mattering in league play, Stefano Pioli will want a response against a relegation candidate at their home ground, looking ahead to the Champions League quarterfinal plus an early April league bout with leaders Napoli.

Salernitana, meanwhile, sit 16th in the Serie A table, six points above the drop but knowing any slip could mean trouble. They have secured four big points in their last two matches against bottom-half sides, and now face a trip to the San Siro with very little to lose.

MORE: When did AC Milan last win the Champions League?

AC Milan vs Salernitana match facts

• Date: Monday, March 13
• Kickoff Time: 3:45 pm ET / 7:45 pm GMT / 6:45 am AEDT (Tue, Mar. 14)
• Location: San Siro Stadium (Milan, Italy)
• Official: Federico La Penna
• Last meeting: Salernitana 1-2 AC Milan (Jan. 4, 2023 | Serie A)

AC Milan vs Salernitana prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: AC Milan (-375)
• Against the spread lean: Salernitana -1.5 (-105)
• Score prediction: AC Milan 1-0 Salernitana

Salernitana are not given a real chance to win this match, understandably so given their respective positions in the league table, but Milan haven't exactly been convincing in the attacking third of late and will be given a real go at the San Siro.

AC Milan vs Salernitana: best bet

• Pick: Salernitana +1.5 goal handicap
• Odds: -105 (BetMGM)

With the handicap pushed to 1.5 goals, Salernitana should be able to contest this match against Milan and keep it tight, even if they don't get a result.

Salernitana have never beaten Milan in five previous matchups, but they've only been defeated by multiple goals once. Consequently, in 11 matches since the 4-0 win over RB Leipzig in Champions League group stage on November 2, AC Milan have only beaten one team by multiple goals - a 2-0 victory over Atalanta who played a miserably bad game.

Rafael Leao hasn't been himself since the World Cup ended, with just a single goal contribution over his last nine matches, while Brahim Diaz didn't seem fully fit against Spurs and his backup Charles de Ketelaere is still finding his footing. Olivier Giroud hasn't scored in five straight games, and if Salernitana can find a way through for even one goal, it would make life very hard for Milan to win in runaway fashion.

AC Milan vs Salernitana prop bet

• Pick: Brahim Diaz to score or assist a goal
• Odds: -115 (FanDuel)

While Brahim Diaz failed to get on the scoresheet against Tottenham, he was a key contributor in the match both in the buildup and in front of goal himself, and continues to carry the attacking third weight as Olivier Giroud and Rafael Leao struggle.

He's due for a goal contribution as well, without one in his last five Seire A games despite 0.89 xG and 0.96 xA. Watch for lineups before placing this wager, as it's possible that Charles de Ketelaere gets the start as Stefano Pioli looks to rotate Diaz recently off an injury, but if he's in, he will be the main focal point of the AC Milan attack.

AC Milan vs Salernitana live stream, TV channel

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