Milan vs Inter prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Champions League semi-final first leg

While one side of the Champions League bracket has produced a semi-final pitting the defending champions against the competition favourites, the other end has also given fans a mouth-watering tie.

A delicious derby match-up sees hated Derby della Madonnina rivals AC Milan and Inter Milan square off across two legs at the San Siro, with the first scheduled for Wednesday.

Neither side is even guaranteed a place in next year's competition, with Inter barely clinging to a top four place and AC Milan two points back in fifth, but they each know that while winning this year's European title would be a massive accomplishment of its own, it would also see them automatically slotted into next year's Champions League.

An injury to Rafael Leao, leaving his status for this match in doubt, looms large over the game. Leao has been electric all season, one of the consistently bright spots for an otherwise inconsistent AC Milan attack.

MORE: AC Milan vs Inter live score, updates, highlights, lineups, and result from Champions League as Leao is ruled out, Lukaku benched

AC Milan vs Inter Milan odds

Inter Milan are considered favourites in this high-profile derby meeting, largely thanks to their much better recent league form. Inter have won each of their last four league matches and have reached the final of the Coppa Italia, advancing past Juventus in the semi-finals. In contrast, AC Milan have won just three of their last 10 league games, drawing five and losing two.

Goals are thought likely to be at a premium here, with memories of the February 5 league meeting that finished 1-0 still fresh in the minds of the betting market. Yet seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams dating back to the start of 2020 have gone over the 2.5 goal total.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan match facts

• Date: Wednesday, May 10
• Kickoff Time: 3:00 pm ET / 8:00 pm BST / 5:00 am AEST (Thu, Dec. 15)
• Location: San Siro (Milan, Italy)
• Official: Jesus Gil Manzano (SPA)
• Last meeting: Inter 1-0 AC Milan (Feb. 5, 2023 | Serie A)

AC Milan vs Inter Milan team news

The big injury everyone will be watching in the lead-up to this match is that of Rafael Leao, who was withdrawn in just the 11th minute of AC Milan's weekend victory over Lazio. The electric Portuguese winger seems to have suffered what sounds like a minor thigh injury, but given the short turnaround, he is surely a doubt for this match, and it sounds as if his status will be a true game-time decision. It's the only real injury worry for AC Milan, but it's a big one. Only Zlatan Ibrahimovic's season-ending calf injury also looms on the squad list, but he has hardly featured this season.

For Inter, there aren't many issues to worry about. Milan Skriniar has been mostly out since mid-February with a back injury, for which he had surgery three weeks ago, but appears to be nearing a return. It's unlikely he will play in this match, but could be in contention for the return leg. Otherwise, just slight injuries to Danilo D'Ambrosio and Robin Gosens are to keep in mind, and both could be in contention for a place in the squad for this match.

MORE: Updated Premier League table with title, Champions League, and relegation race breakdowns

AC Milan vs Inter Milan key stats

• AC Milan have never lost to Inter in the Champions League across four prior meetings. They were first drawn together in the 2002/03 UCL semi-finals, where legs ended in a draw, with AC Milan advancing thanks to an away goal. They met again in the 2004/05 quarterfinals, and AC Milan won both legs for a 5-0 aggregate.
• Rafael Leao has only missed two matches all season, both in league play due to yellow card suspension, and AC Milan lost both games. They were beaten at home by league champions Napoli back in September, and then again by Fiorentina on the road in early March. Both games resulted in 2-1 scorelines in favour of Milan's opponent.
• After scoring just two goals for Inter through the start of February, Romelu Lukaku has since bagged eight goals across all competitions, plus four assists.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan prediction

• Moneyline lean: Inter (+140)
• Score prediction: Milan 0-2 Inter

While they play in the same stadium, this is an AC Milan home match, so their fans will be blanketing the venue. Yet that has not deterred Inter, who have achieved 3-0 victories on two separate occasions as the "visiting" team over the last two years — once in the Italian Super Cup, and another in league play back in February of 2021.

In fact, as the "home" side, since a 1-0 Coppa Italia victory in 2017, Milan have only won this derby on one other occasion, a 3-2 victory in league play this past September, otherwise winless in the other seven games.

With Rafael Leao not 100 percent, this feels like an inevitable path for Inter to reach the final, and given neither of these teams are terribly reliable, the better team is the better play.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan best bet

• Pick: Both teams to score — NO
• Odds: -130 (BetMGM)

Four of the last five Derby della Maddonina match-ups have ended with at least one side keeping a clean sheet, with only Milan's 3-2 victory back in September bucking the trend. This feels a better play than the under, which has far less value.

Given Inter have the ability to run up the score themselves, it feels just as likely that the "visitors" win 3-0 and ruin the under as the match finishes in a 1-1 draw to scupper this selection. In fact, there's been two 3-0 wins for Inter just in the past two meetings, whereas these two sides have only drawn 1-1 once since the start of 2015.

Adding fuel to the fire, Inter have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five Serie A matches, and in two of those, a 6-0 win over Verona and a 3-0 victory over Empoli, they hit the over themselves. This is a far better play than the under, especially given the value.

If you need any more convincing, should Inter fall short in this match, in six of their last seven Serie A defeats, they were held off the scoresheet. In league play since the start of November, Inter have dropped points just two times in 15 matches when they've found a goal. Either way, it feels like one side will fail to find the net.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan prop bet

• Pick: Federico Dimarco to score or assist a goal
• Odds: +210 (FanDuel)

Few players have been more critical to Inter's recent success than left wing-back Federico Dimarco. He has two goals over his last four matches, and has chipped in eight chances created as well.

He provided two assists in the 3-3 draw with Benfica that saw him through to this stage, and with the 25-year-old slotted in on Lautaro Martinez's side of the attack, he's in great position to be the main creative force in this game.

Dimarco had a tough outing through 70 minutes against AC Milan back in early February as Hakan Calhanoglu took on the creative responsibilities, but with Denzel Dumfries struggling on the other flank, Dimarco has taken on the increased responsibility out wide and flourished.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan prop bet

• Pick: Ismael Bennacer to be booked
• Odds: +140 (FanDuel)
   
• Pick: Rade Krunic to be booked
• Odds: +165 (FanDuel)
   
• Pick: Olivier Giroud to be booked
• Odds: +290 (FanDuel)

With two rivals that attack each other physically matched up with a referee who loves to show yellow cards, the total cards bar is seemingly out of reach, with the number set at 5.5, which is exceedingly high.

Instead of the total, we'll look to individuals who should see a caution. All three of the above selections are great plays, especially Giroud who is tied for the lead in the Milan squad in fouls this season with Ismael Bennacer.

While there are plenty of players on Inter who are at risk as well (look to Lautaro Martinez who leads their side in fouls as well but somehow seems to constantly escape a booking), but given Milan are fourth in Serie A in bookings, while Inter are 19th, the "home" players are the ones to look to here.

AC Milan vs Inter Milan live stream, TV channel

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