It seems more likely than not that over the next month or so Erik Karlsson will have a new home in the NHL.
The All-Star defenseman, who just endured a drama-filled season in Ottawa, has one year remaining on his contract. The Senators will be able to negotiate and offer an extension with Karlsson beginning July 1, but based on the team's previous efforts to shed payroll — mixed in with the mega money Karlsson is due to make, mixed in with the very obvious tension created through public comments made by both parties this season — a trade seems like it's in the cards.
It's rare a player of Karlsson's caliber is included in a deal, but not unheard of. But it's obvious what the Senators will be looking for, a combination of high picks and top-end prospects, the type of package that will help them to begin to rebuild for the future.
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So while P.K Subban may be the most comparable player traded in recent memory, it doesn't seem logical for the Senators to seek a one-for-one type deal when moving Karlsson.
But there are some previous moves that have at least set precedent for the Senators in terms of what they can realistically seek, especially when it comes to "if this player was worth 'X' than Karlsson is worth 'X+2.'"
Because if Ottawa is unable to move Karlsson before the 2018-19 season starts, they run the risk of losing power at the negotiating table with another team, or even playing out the season with Karlsson on the roster, and then having him walk in the summer of 2019 for nothing. As it already stands, it's difficult to imagine the Senators getting onto any phone call holding the upper hand, with the writing on the wall that Karlsson won't re-sign with the club, and Ottawa already having unsuccessfully tried to move him prior to the 2018 deadline.
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February 26, 2018
The Rangers trade Ryan McDonagh and J.T. Miller to the Lightning for Libor Hajek, Brett Howden, Vladislav Namestnikov, a first-round pick and a conditional second-round pick
To gage specifically what McDonagh garnered in this trade, simply remove Miller and Namestnikov, leaving two top prospects, a first round pick, and a conditional second (that would have become another first had Tampa won the Cup).
That still leaves a pretty good bounty for a player who, contractually was a pretty similar boat as Karlsson. The Lightning got the remainder of the 2017-18 season with McDonagh, and will presumably get all of next year before his current contract expires.
General manager Steve Yzerman dipped his toes in the water to try to pry Karlsson out of Ottawa, but ended up landing on McDonagh. Does that Yzerman was unwilling to pay the asking price for Karlsson? If so, that would mean that Dorion is expecting more than two blue chip prospects, and two high draft picks (it wasn't like the condition was a throwaway on the second pick included for McDonagh, considering the Lightning were Cup favorites leading up to the trade deadline).
There's no doubt Karlsson is a better defenseman than McDonagh, and should, by the non-existent transitive property in sports, fetch more in a trade.
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November 5, 2017
The Avalanche trade Matt Duchene in a three-team deal, acquire Andrew Hammond, first-round pick, second-round pick, third-round pick, Samuel Girard, Shane Bowers, and Vladislav Kamenev
While there was a prevailing sentiment that Joe Sakic sat on his hands for way too long and was bound to get a watered-down return for Duchene, the Avalanche ended up getting a king's bounty. Considering Duchene's numbers were down, and Colorado had to trade someone, and simply how long Duchene had been on the trade block, the Avalanche really did come away with a small fortune.
The picks are the picks, and though the Predators second-round selection is going to be late in the second round, they still got a first and a second, which is nothing to scoff at. Samuel Girard seems like a legitimate top-four defenseman, and Shane Bowers was taken in the first round, and still stewing at Boston University.
That the Nashville Predators were also involved in this deal (they acquired Kyle Turris from Ottawa) helped Sakic recoup more total assets, but considering Dorion was directly involved in this trade, it should give him a pretty good sense of what he has to gain. It's not apples-to-apples because Duchene plays a different position, but is essentially the same age as Karlsson (eight months his junior), and, again, Karlsson is unquestionably a better player.
June 26, 2015
The Bruins trade Dougie Hamilton to the Flames for a first- and two second-round picks
Hamilton had just turned 21 when this trade was made, and had three years of NHL experience under his belt. He certainly was at a different phase of his career than Karlsson currently is, but the former first-round pick had a bright future ahead of him. And since making the move to Calgary, Hamilton has certainly fulfilled on that promise.
It seems like an inevitability that any trade involving Karlsson will see a first-round pick going back to the Senators, likely with another draft selection in the first three rounds. If Karlsson is dealt this offseason, it could make a lot of sense for Ottawa to look for a conditional second that could become a first if the new team is able to sign Karlsson to an extension (that team will also likely want to speak with Karlsson to gage his interest in a possible extension).
Four days after being acquired by the Flames, Hamilton signed a six-year, $34.5 million contract that pays him an annual average value of $5.75 million. It's hard to envision Karlsson immediately signing if he's traded in June or July, but Calgary obviously had a pretty good sense they could agree to terms with Hamilton, who wasn't signed for the 2015-16 season when they acquired him.
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Karlsson very well may land on a new team and play out the entire season without an extension, which could further complicate how much a rival team is willing to give Ottawa, knowing it could be a one-year rental.
July 23, 2012
The Blue Jackets trade Rick Nash to the Rangers for Brandon Dubinsky, Artem Anisimov, Tim Erixon, and a first- and third-round pick
Like Karlsson, the trade of Nash came as no surprise; for months, Blue Jackets general manager Scott Howson had talked about and explored moving the franchise player. When Nash was finally dealt, the return was pretty steep: Dubinsky (26) and Anisimov (24) were considered two younger forwards with some good years ahead of them, while Howson was also able to get back a first and another pick.
The biggest difference in this scenario was team-control: Nash was set to begin the third of an eight-year contract when he was shipped to New York. The Rangers had the assurance of six seasons with Nash (which turned into five-plus) certainly a bigger bargaining chip for the Blue Jackets.
When Nash was moved, he was seven months younger than Karlsson currently is. He also had scored at least 30 goals in seven of his prior eight seasons, including two 40-goal campaigns. While he never consistently scored at that same level in New York, he was a pretty sure fire commodity prior to the trade (that's the risk you run acquiring a player heading into his age-27 season, though).
The Senators will surely look for younger players in a package, not two in their mid-20's. The basic framework could be a pretty good roadmap for Dorion though: Two or three players, with two picks.
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The reality is, none of these are perfect comparables. Duchene really fetched a fortune and, even with the term remaining on his deal when moved (pretty much two full seasons) it's hard to argue Karlsson isn't worth more. But with that being said, it's also hard not to discount the footing Ottawa has lost in how the last eight or so months have played out.
Which leaves us where the Senators currently are. Dorion has said he won't trade Karlsson during the NHL Draft, and the Senators already own the fourth pick. They also ran a major risk in keeping that selection, electing to instead send their 2019 first to Colorado as part of that Duchene trade (Ottawa had the option of choosing the year).
it seems hard to imagine Karlsson not getting traded in the next three weeks, but to where, and for what, very much remain to be seen.