How Maple Leafs could make a John Tavares deal work next summer

Michael Augello

How Maple Leafs could make a John Tavares deal work next summer image

John Tavares could potentially be the biggest impact player to hit unrestricted free agency since Brad Richards in 2011, but while the superstar publicly is focused on re-signing with the Islanders, a number of NHL teams are preparing for the possibility that he hits the open market next July.

Could one of those teams be the Maple Leafs?

Tavares is a native of Mississauga, Ont., and it's an intriguing thought for the Leafs to bring him back home, as has been speculated about pretty much since the day the Islanders selected Tavares first overall in the 2009 draft. Certainly, pairing Tavares and Calder Trophy winner Auston Matthews as franchise cornerstones down the middle is an appealing idea. 

The prospect of having two superstar centers was something that intrigued team president Brendan Shanahan when Steven Stamkos was approaching UFA status 13 months ago before ultimately agreeing to stay with the Lightning. It would give Toronto that one-two punch up the middle that has been a successful formula for winning Stanley Cups in Edmonton (Gretzky/Messier), Detroit (Yzerman/Fedorov), Colorado (Sakic/Forsberg) and Pittsburgh (Crosby/Malkin).
 
The one downside is that it would put Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello in the similar spot as his Chicago counterpart Stan Bowman, having to make difficult roster decisions to accommodate the big contracts of Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane.

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The ripple effects of the eight-year, $100 million extension Connor McDavid signed last month is already having an impact on the negotiations for Jack Eichel’s extension with Buffalo, and will also affect the future Matthews contract and the price tag for Tavares.
 
If Matthews improves exponentially as McDavid did in his second year, he could conceivably get close to the Edmonton center’s $12.5 million AAV. The same could happen with Tavares if multiple teams bid for his services. 
 
With the expiring contracts of centers Tyler Bozak, Dominic Moore and Ben Smith, wingers Joffrey Lupul, Leo Komarov, James van Riemsdyk and Eric Fehr, and the buyouts of Jared Cowen and Tim Gleason coming off the books at the end of the season, the Leafs will have nearly $30 million in cap space. However, that amount does not include the overages incurred by the bonuses on the rookie contracts (which totaled $5.3 million for the 2017-18 season) or new deals for Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner.

Were the Leafs to sign Tavares, it would likely necessitate the trade of Nazem Kadri. The 26-year-old Kadri (selected six picks after Tavares in 2009) scored 30 goals for the first time last season and also established himself as a defensive center, but he is under contract for another five years at $4.5 million per season.
 
Pittsburgh, in its last two successful Cup runs, had the luxury of an effective third-line center in Nick Bonino (whose cap hit was less than $2 million) playing behind Crosby and Malkin. Toronto would have to clear out Kadri’s contract to allocate the cap space to address other areas of need, such as their blueline.
 
The addition of Tavares might also force the Leafs to make a choice between Nylander and Marner. Both wingers posted over 60 points in their rookie seasons and look to be on their way to a significant pay increase on their second contracts.

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Unless Lamoriello can work his magic and get Nylander and Marner on cost-effective bridge deals or long-term extensions at below market value, Toronto may have to move someone they don’t want to, as the Hawks were forced to do with Brandon Saad in 2015 and Artemi Panarin this summer.

Of course, as was the case with Stamkos and the Lightning, Tavares may very well re-sign with the Islanders, though there are some significant obstacles to clear before that happens.

The Islanders have an unstable arena situation, with the team likely to opt out of their current lease with the Barclays Center in Brooklyn before next season, even though there is no other suitable option for them to play currently in New York. Tavares is also concerned with the on-ice product, where the addition of Jordan Eberle may not be enough to ease the concerns of the Islanders' captain.

Yet, at his very core, Tavares remains extremely loyal to the Islanders.
 
"We’ve had great open communication. (New York) is obviously a great place to play and I’ve enjoyed my time being an Islander and I want that to continue.” Tavares said to TSN on Tuesday. “I just want to try and focus on being ready for the upcoming season and being at my best and being able to contribute.”  

That doesn't sound like someone itching to leave. But should that itch need a scratch, expect the Maple Leafs to be right there in line.

Michael Augello