NFL Week 3 was bounce-back time for several teams that started the season slow. Now back in the win column, these teams are looking to restore postseason expectations entering Week 4.
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Facing the desperate prospect of an 0-3 start, multiple teams, including the New Orleans Saints, reacted with much-needed wins to salvage their season — for now anyway. Meanwhile, teams like the Texans, Bengals and Giants fell just short of victory and now face a rocky road to the playoffs, bordering on impassable.
WEEK 4 NFL PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Each week, AccuScore will update its 2017 NFL postseason forecast by simulating the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to Super Bowl 52. Let’s look at how the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NFL playoffs have changed entering Week 4.
AccuScore's odds to make NFL playoffs
Probability vs. weekly % change
| New England Patriots | 0.99 | 0% |
| Green Bay Packers | 0.96 | 0% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.89 | 11% |
| Denver Broncos | 0.88 | -1% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.88 | 0% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.84 | 2% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.82 | 21% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.71 | -11% |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.66 | 1% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.64 | -4% |
| Tampa Bay Bucs | 0.5 | -16% |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.48 | -8% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.45 | 13% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.37 | 15% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.34 | -7% |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.27 | 5% |
| Detroit Lions | 0.21 | -2% |
| Washington Redskins | 0.19 | 10% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.18 | -3% |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.17 | -8% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.16 | 5% |
| New York Giants | 0.14 | -23% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.09 | -2% |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.09 | 6% |
| L.A. Rams | 0.06 | 2% |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.02 | -2% |
| Chicago Bears | 0.02 | 2% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0.01 | -1% |
| L.A. Chargers | 0.01 | 0% |
| Houston Texans | 0.01 | 1% |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 0% |
| New York Jets | 0 | 0% |
NFL playoff odds changes
Biggest improvements to playoff chances entering Week 4:
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Atlanta Falcons (+21%): The Falcons have shown no signs of the dreaded Super Bowl hangover as they are one of only two 3-0 teams. With Tampa Bay’s loss to Minnesota, the Falcons jumped up in the division projections from the wild-card holder to the most likely NFC South winner. Given how the season has started for Atlanta, a 5-0 record before Week 7’s Super Bowl 51 rematch against the Patriots wouldn’t be a big surprise.
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Jacksonville Jaguars (+15%): The trip to London was as successful as the two previous jumps across the pond for the Jaguars. Their performance level has been fluctuating quite a bit, though, and the lack of consistency makes it tough to see the Jaguars legitimately challenging the Titans for the AFC South title.
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Minnesota Vikings (+13%): Earlier, the Vikings' playoff probabilities were dependent on Sam Bradford’s knee. The stellar performance of Case Keenum in Week 3 against Tampa Bay, though, impacted the season simulations positively. It doesn’t matter so much who starts at QB in Minnesota, as either quarterback is projected to carry the team to a wild-card spot.
Biggest drops in playoff chances entering Week 4:
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New York Giants (-23%): The Giants’ free fall continues despite a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. The 0-3 start leaves New York buried waist high, and the next three weeks may see the Giants fully underground after trips to Tampa Bay and Denver. Even though the Giants are just two games behind in the NFC East, Eli Manning needs to carry his team to a winning streak quickly for the Giants to have any real shot at the playoffs.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-16%): An unexpected Week 1 bye has generated abnormally large fluctuations in the Buccaneers’ season simulations. Atlanta has clearly taken over the top spot in the NFC South, and the Bucs' home game against the Giants this week will determine their playoff chances in a big way. Atlanta might be difficult to catch, but the projected NFC wild-card spot still belongs to Tampa Bay for now.
-
Pittsburgh Steelers (-11%): The Steelers are still projected to win the AFC North despite a terrible loss at Chicago. Based on the simulations, two AFC North teams still look like strong candidates to make the postseason. Two wins in Pittsburgh's next three games would keep the Steelers on track for another playoff berth.
AccuScore's NFL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.