To the analysts who said Julian Edelman’s season-ending knee injury was not a big deal, and that the Patriots would easily adjust, I repeat what I said at the time: not so fast.
For proof, I give you New England's season-opening loss to Kansas City.
Tom Brady entered the 2017 season with a 63.7 percent career completion rate, but without his top wide receiver Thursday, he and the Patriots offense struggled, especially late in the game. He completed 16 of 36 passes (44 percent) with no touchdowns on a night in which the Pats were outscored 21-0 in the fourth quarter. New England converted only five of 15 third downs, situations in which Edelman has been a favorite target for Brady.
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Edelman brings so much to the Patriots with his quickness, clutch play, versatility, leadership and veteran savvy along with his great rapport with Brady. People don’t necessarily appreciate his impact and how the loss of him for the year dramatically affects even a championship team. Whether it's making a sensational catch (like the one he made in Super Bowl LI), running a jet sweep or being the team’s leading punt returner, Edelman contributes in so many ways.
But it also is his toughness, his ability to shake off big hits in those tight windows out of the slot, that makes him a fan and team favorite.
Edelman caught 98 passes for 1,106 yards last season, and his 356 catches over the past four seasons lead the Patriots. He has caught another 80 passes in the playoffs over that same period, which includes two Super Bowl wins.
After the loss to the Chiefs, Brady admitted it’s a major challenge to replace Edelman: “Yeah, I think we will feel that all year. He's just one of those types of players. It is always about consistency, dependability. That's the challenge of a football season."
At first blush, many observers thought the Patriots' offense would be fine with premier tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receivers such as Brandin Cooks, Danny Amendola, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell picking up the slack. Coach Bill Belichick is highly regarded as a master of adjusting when key players are lost, and he traded for former Colts No. 1 pick Phillip Dorsett.
But the problems at receiver intensified first when Mitchell went on injured reserve with a knee injury (he can return in eight weeks if healthy), and then when Amendola left the Chiefs game with a concussion.
Both Amendola and Gronkowski have had difficult times staying healthy. Without Edelman, Mitchell and Amendola if he’s out for a few weeks, Brady must work with a receiving corps that includes two guys, Cooks and Dorsett, in their first years in the Patriots’ system, plus Hogan in his second year. Even a 12-time Pro Bowler and five-time Super Bowl champ needs time to develop chemistry with new receivers.
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As a former GM, I understand how injuries to star players can derail a team. In Minnesota, we lost top running back Robert Smith to season-ending knee injuries in 1993 and 1995. Scottie Graham filled in effectively, but he was not the big-play threat Smith was. We were a playoff team but not a Super Bowl threat in '93, and we and missed the playoffs for the first time in several years in '95.
I also know how tough it can be to overcome injuries to several players at the same position, as is the case for the Patriots at wide receiver. In 2001, our Titans were coming off a 13-3 season when our secondary was ravaged by a succession of injuries to starters. The result was a disappointing 7-9 season.
The good news for the Patriots is it's early in the season. Gronkowski will be a bigger force in the weeks ahead than he was in a two-catch, 33 yard performance in his first game since the back surgery that cost him the last six games of the 2016 regular season and playoffs.
The Patriots have the league's best coaching staff, and Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will lean on their new receiving threat in Cooks and Super Bowl hero James White coming out of the backfield. But will Gronk and Amendola hold up? Will the offensive line play better than it did late in the Chiefs game when Brady was under siege? A strong running game led by White and Mike Gillislie certainly will help the cause, and the Patriots ran reasonably well in the opener with 124 yards rushing and three touchdowns on the ground.
Even after the Edelman injury and the other problems, nobody is dismissing New England as a Super Bowl contender. It would be a shock if the Patriots don't cruise to their ninth straight AFC East title, which would be their 15th in the last 16 years.
So New England will return to the playoffs as a division champ, but will it be able to gain home-field advantage over strong AFC teams in Pittsburgh, Oakland and Kansas City? And can the Patriots beat these teams with a return trip to the Super Bowl on the line, especially if they're on the road?
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The Edelman injury narrows the gap between the Patriots and their pursuers, and New England’s margin for error has lessened. I would never say a Patriots team with Belichick and Brady can't get it done. After all, they just won the Super Bowl without Gronkowski and rallied from a 28-3 deficit.
I'm just saying it will be a tougher task than many think after the loss of Edelman. Don't underestimate the impact of his injury.
Jeff Diamond is the former president of the Titans and the former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
