Finding fantasy football sleepers, busts with running back consistency rankings

Bob Lung

Finding fantasy football sleepers, busts with running back consistency rankings image

Running back is the most important position in fantasy football, which is why you can never have enough tools at your disposal during your draft. From rankings to tiers to sleepers to handcuffs, the RB section of your cheat sheet will be stuffed. Well, here's one more thing to add -- consistency ratings. 

Inconsistency is really the bane of fantasy football's owners' existences. A running back blows up one week, then gets stuffed the next. Sometimes it's because of matchup; other times it's because of a loss goal-line touches or targets or something of that nature. Sometimes it's an injury or Mother Nature. Whatever it is, there are players who tend to be more trustworthy than others, and those players have more value than you might realize, even if they don't have the "monster games" other guys might have.

Over at BigGuyFantasySports.com, I've developed a "Clutch Report" that calculates a player's "Clutch Factor" (consistency level). The Clutch Factor is based on how big your league is and what scoring method you use. So, in a 12-team PPR format, a running back will need over 11 fantasy points each week to earn a "Clutch Game." A highly consistent fantasy player will have a CF of more than 70 percent. The best guys will normally be around 80-90 percent.

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2017 fantasy football cheat sheet

Based on my numbers, I've found several players who weren't necessarily the top guys in total fantasy points last year but were notably consistent and important to their respective fantasy teams. Conversely, I've found players who are being overvalued in drafts simply based on their lack of consistency.

Here's a snapshot of the top of my Clutch Report for running backs, plus my picks for the most underrated and overrated RBs heading into the 2017 drafts.

Fantasy Football Consistency Rankings: Running backs

1. RB1A David Johnson, Cardinals

2. RB1A Le'Veon Bell, Steelers

3. RB1A LeSean McCoy, Bills

4. RB1A Melvin Gordon, Chargers

5. RB1B DeMarco Murray, Titans

6. RB1B Devonta Freeman, Falcons

7. RB1B Jordan Howard, Bears

8. RB1B Todd Gurley, Rams

9. RB1B Jay Ajayi, Dolphins

10. RB1B Isaiah Crowell, Browns

11. RB1B Lamar Miller, Texans

12. RB1B C.J. Anderson, Broncos

13. RB2A Spencer Ware, Chiefs

14. RB2A Tevin Coleman, Falcons

15. RB2B Christian McCaffrey, Panthers

16. RB2B Leonard Fournette, Jaguars

17. RB2B Mike Gillislee, Patriots

18. RB2B Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys

19. RB2B Frank Gore, Colts

20. RB2B Mark Ingram, Saints

21. RB2B Danny Woodhead, Ravens

22. RB2B Carlos Hyde, 49ers

23. RB2B Marshawn Lynch, Raiders

24. RB2B Ty Montgomery, Packers

2017 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200

A ranking of RB1A means, according to my projections, that a player is expected to post an 80 percent or higher Clutch Rate in 2017. Only David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy and Melvin Gordon are ranked at that level. The remaining eight "RB1s" are all ranked as RB1B. This means I expect them to post a CR of 70 percent or higher. Obviously, the higher-ranked backs in that tier like DeMarco Murray and Devonta Freeman are expected to earn much higher than 70 percent but probably won’t exceed 80 percent. The lower-ranked RBs in that tier could exceed a 70 percent Clutch Rate, but the lower ranking means less probability.

The RB2A backs are currently only Spencer Ware and Tevin Coleman. Both have proven consistency from the past and should continue between 65-70 percent this season. The RB2B tier is a collection of running backs that have the potential to earn over a 60 percent CR.

The “elephant” in the tier is Ezekiel Elliott. His six-game suspension is the reason he's ranked much lower. His consistency should still be way over 60 percent. I’d pick him as my RB2 if I drafted Johnson or Bell in Round 1. Let’s look at a couple of other running backs and see which of them are undervalued or overvalued based on their current ADPs.

Undervalued: Frank Gore, Colts.

Yes, I know he’s like 50, but he’s not dead yet. Let’s be honest -- if the Colts were worried about Gore, wouldn’t they have drafted a running back before the fourth round to replace him? Truth is, Gore ended 2016 with a 70-percent Clutch Rate, tying him with Devonta Freeman of the Falcons. His early ADP in '17 drafts is RB33! I’d be surprised if it stayed that high, but many fantasy owners don’t like old guys. However, I don’t care about age. Consistency is consistency. Gore will be on my teams!

Overvalued: Jay Ajayi, Dolphins.

Ajayi rushed for a combined 735 yards across four separate games last year, but only 537 yards over the other 12. That, my friends, is inconsistent! Ajayi ended the year ranked 28th in consistency with a 47-percent Clutch Rate even though he ranked 11th in total points. His current ADP is RB8! Little has changed in Miami to believe the consistency is going to improve. I’d pass on him at his high price.

MORE: Consistency reports at Big Guy Fantasy Sports

Getting players who score a lot of points is the main objective of fantasy football, but if they don’t do it on a consistent basis, you might wind up as that really high-scoring team that doesn't make the playoffs. No one wants to be that team, so make a point to find guys who get the job done every week.

Bob Lung

Bob Lung Photo

Bob Lung is a fantasy sports contributor for The Sporting News.