Finding the most consistent wide receivers with our fantasy football rankings projections

Bob Lung

Finding the most consistent wide receivers with our fantasy football rankings projections image

When it comes to fantasy football, consistency is an extremely underrated component of building a winner. Still, few owners going into their drafts with any kind of rankings or measures on their cheat sheets to help them devise a draft strategy for finding the most consistent players.

Let's face it -- few things are as frustrating in fantasy than having a player score 30-some points one week and five points the next, especially if you lose  both weeks. Many chalk it up to “bad luck”, and while that's certainly part of it, there are ways to attempt to control certain factors that can go into the consistency of your team.

At BigGuyFantasySports.com, I've developed a "Clutch Report" that calculates a player's "Clutch Factor". The Clutch Factor (consistency level) is based on the number of teams in your league and the scoring method. For example, in a 12-team PPR format, a running back must earn over 11 fantasy points each week to earn a "Clutch Game." A highly consistent fantasy player will have a CF of more than 70 percent. The elite studs of the fantasy world will normally be around 80-90 percent.

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2017 fantasy football cheat sheet

Using this method, I have identified players who might not have been league leaders in total fantasy points last year but were very consistent and crucial to the success of their respective fantasy teams. In addition, I have also identified players based on their lack of consistency. Here's a preview of the top of my projected CR for wide receiver, as well as my pick for the most underrated and overrated WRs heading into the 2017 season.

Fantasy Football Consistency Rankings: Wide receivers

1. WR1A Antonio Brown, Steelers

2. WR1A Jordy Nelson, Packers

3. WR1A A.J. Green, Bengals

4. WR1A Odell Beckham Jr., Giants

5. WR1A Dez Bryant, Cowboys

6. WR1A Julio Jones, Falcons

7. WR1B Michael Thomas, Saints

8. WR1B Keenan Allen, Chargers

9. WR1B Mike Evans, Buccaneers

10. WR1B Amari Cooper, Raiders

11. WR1B Jarvis Landry, Dolphins

12. WR1B DeAndre Hopkins, Texans

13. WR2A Demaryius Thomas, Broncos

14. WR2A T.Y. Hilton, Colts

15. WR2A Michael Crabtree, Raiders

16. WR2A Golden Tate, Lions

17. WR2B Julian Edelman, Patriots

18. WR2B Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

19. WR2B Brandin Cooks, Patriots

20. WR2B Tyreek Hill, Chiefs

21. WR2B Doug Baldwin, Seahawks

22. WR2B Davante Adams, Packers

23. WR2B Jamison Crowder, Redskins

24. WR2B Willie Snead, Saints

25. WR3A Allen Robinson, Jaguars

26. WR3A Terrelle Pryor, Redskins

27. WR3A Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers

28. WR3B Alshon Jeffery, Eagles

29. WR3B Pierre Garcon, 49ers

30. WR3B Tyrell Williams, Chargers

31. WR3B Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos

32. WR3B Brandon Marshall, Giants

33. WR3B DeVante Parker, Dolphins

34. WR3B Randall Cobb, Packers

35. WR3B Sammy Watkins, Rams

36. WR3B Martavis Bryant, Steelers

2017 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200

A ranking of WR1A means I expect them to earn a Clutch Rate of 80 percent in 2017. I currently have six ranked at that level. The remaining six "WR1s" are all ranked as WR1B. This means I expect them to exceed 70 percent or higher. Obviously, the higher-ranked wide receivers like Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen are expected to earn much higher than 70 percent but probably won’t exceed 80 percent. The lower-ranked wide receivers certainly could exceed the 70-percent Clutch Rate, but the lower ranking means less probability.

The WR2A receivers have proven consistency from the past and should continue between 65-70 percent this season. The WR2B tier is a collection of wide receivers that have the potential to earn over a 60 percent ranking. Some folks are surprised to see Doug Baldwin this low, but he has never really been a consistent receiver ,as evident by his back-to-back seasons of only a 56-percent Clutch Rate.

The WR3 group of A’s & B’s consists of receivers that I expect to earn a 50-60-percent Clutch Rate. Some are young receivers moving up from last year like Terrelle Pryor, Tyrell Williams and DeVante Parker. Others consistent of veterans falling from their higher tier status of fantasy seasons past like Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Emmanuel Sanders.

Let’s look at a couple of these wide receivers and see which of them are undervalued or overvalued based on their current ADP’s.

Undervalued: Michael Crabtree, Raiders. 

What does this guy have to do to get any fantasy respect? He was ranked 12th in total points last season (11 more than Amari Cooper) and was ranked tied for 13th in consistency with a 69 percent Clutch Rate (higher than Cooper again)! Yet, his ADP is WR23 while Cooper’s is WR10. Crabtree’s sorrow is your gain! Pass on Cooper and grab Crabtree a round or two later!

Overvalued: Mike Evans, Buccaneers.

Every year, I tell fantasy owners not to draft Evans too high. Yet, every year, his ADP gets higher! He has been improving with his Clutch Rates, going from 60 percent to 64 to 69 lover the last three years, respectively. His early ADP is WR4 with an overall ADP of eighth! Are you kidding me? The Buccaneers added O.J. Howard and DeSean Jackson. If Evans couldn’t be consistent before, then how’s it going to get any better in 2017?

MORE: Consistency reports at Big Guy Fantasy Sports

Trying to find consistent players should be part of your fantasy draft preperation every season. While drafting players who score a lot of points always makes sense, if they don’t do it on a consistent basis, they might not be helping your team as much as they should. That could cost you games, which could cost you a chance at a championship.

Bob Lung

Bob Lung Photo

Bob Lung is a fantasy sports contributor for The Sporting News.