Finding tight end sleepers, busts with fantasy football consistency rankings

Bob Lung

Finding tight end sleepers, busts with fantasy football consistency rankings image

How do you incorporate consistency into your fantasy football draft strategy? Do you have a specific set of rankings on your cheat sheet or just ignore it and hope things work out during the season? 

Tight end, maybe more than any other position, is synonymous with inconsistency. Doesn't it always seem that you get a TE TD when you don't even "need" it, but when you're in a close matchup, your tight end has two catches for 18 yards? You can call it "bad luck" if you want, but fantasy owners deal with enough bad luck in the form of injuries or weather conditions. You don't need to roll the dice even further with inconsistent players.

Along with the team at BigGuyFantasySports.com, I've established a "Clutch Report" that calculates a player's "Clutch Factor", or consistency level. The Clutch Factor is based on the number of teams in your league and the scoring method. For example, in a 12-team PPR league, a running back must earn over 11 fantasy points each week to earn a "Clutch Game." A highly consistent fantasy player will have a CF of more than 70 percent. Fantasy's elite studs will normally be around 80-90 percent.

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2017 fantasy football cheat sheet

Even if a player had a lot of total fantasy points last year, he might not have been consistent. With that in mind, I have identified undervalued and overvalued players based on their relative consistencies. Here's a preview of the top of my Clutch Report projections for tight ends, as well as my picks for the most underrated and overrated TEs heading into the 2017 season.

Fantasy Football Consistency Rankings: Tight end

1. TE1A Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

2. TE1A Travis Kelce, Chiefs

3. TE1A Greg Olsen, Panthers

4. TE1B Jimmy Graham, Seahawks

5. TE1B Kyle Rudolph, Vikings

6. TE1B Martellus Bennett, Packers

7. TE1B Tyler Eifert, Bengals

8. TE1B Delanie Walker, Titans

9. TE1B Julius Thomas, Dolphins

10. TE1B Jordan Reed, Redskins

11. TE1B Hunter Henry, Chargers

12. TE1B Jack Doyle, Colts 

2017 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Top 200

A ranking of TE1A means I expect these players to earn a 70 percent or higher Clutch Rate in 2017. You will notice there are only three ranked tight ends at that level. The remaining nine "TE1s" are all ranked as TE1B, which means I expect them to earn a Clutch Rating between 55-70 percent. Obviously, the higher-ranked tight ends like Jimmy Graham and Kyle Rudolph are expected to earn much higher than 55 percent but probably won’t exceed 70 percent. The lower-ranked tight ends certainly could exceed the 55-percent Clutch Rating, but the lower they are ranked, the less likely they are to do so. 

Jordan Reed is the exception among the non-top-three TEs. He will probably earn over a 70-percent Clutch Rate, but he can never stay healthy enough to be worth a pick at TE1A. That's why he's listed below as my overvalued TE.

Undervalued: Kyle Rudolph, Vikings.

Quick question: Who was the most consistent tight end in 2016? Gronk? Kelce? Olsen? Nope, it was Rudolph. His 75-percent Clutch Rate was 12 points higher than second place among TEs than played more than 12 games. Rudolph wasn’t very consistent in the past, but the emergence of Sam Bradford at quarterback -- along with his lack of arm strength -- made Rudolph very important in the passing game. Bradford remains the Vikings' quarterback in 2017, which means Rudolph should be a consistent factor again. With his early ADP of TE8, he looks like a great value.

Overvalued: Jordan Reed, Redskins.

Reed tied for first last year with a 75-percent Clutch Rate, but he did it in only 12 games. Consistency in fantasy players is great...if they can stay healthy. All the consistency in the world isn’t going to help your fantasy team if a player isn't on the field. Reed’s ADP is currently at TE4. That’s just way too high for me and his injury risk. I’d rather take Jimmy Graham or Rudolph. 

MORE: Consistency reports at Big Guy Fantasy Sports

Fantasy draft preparation should always including looking for the most consistent players. Total points look great at the end of the year, but don't forget that to make the playoffs -- and win a championship -- you need a good number of points each week. 

Bob Lung

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Bob Lung is a fantasy sports contributor for The Sporting News.