Aaron Judge's second-half collapse has been historically ugly

John Edwards

Aaron Judge's second-half collapse has been historically ugly image

The verdict is in, and it’s not pretty.

To say rookie phenom Aaron Judge has crashed back down to earth is like saying that the Dodgers are a good team — it’s a serious understatement. After emerging as a star poised to capture the AL Rookie of the Year and MVP awards, Judge has been in total freefall, setting the MLB record for most consecutive games with a strikeout and hitting only .181/.342/.349 since the All-Star game.

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For a Yankees team still in the playoff hunt, the loss of their best bat is crushing. Judge’s decline is almost without precedent. And yet, at the same time, it was inevitable.

Judge's historical fall

It’s tough to find a historical equivalent for Judge’s fall from grace. Since 2002, we have seen only 40 seasons in which hitters posted a wRC+ above 175 in the first half (minimum 130 PA), including Judge. In the second half of each of those seasons, no one has seen a bigger drop in wRC+ than Judge, and Judge’s was the biggest fall by 20 points, beating out Matt Kemp’s 2008 season (not including hitters who missed the second half).

In addition, every player who posted a wRC+ above 175 in the first half posted a wRC+ above 100 for the second half — except for Judge, whose second half wRC+ sits at a lowly 85. Judge was in a league of his own in the first half, but now he’s hitting like Logan Forsythe and Jon Jay. Simply put, Judge’s collapse is like nothing we’ve seen this century.

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Warning signs

And yet, his collapse seemed bound to happen.

Looking at his first half production, it’s hard not to fall in love with Judge’s .329/.448/.691 slashline, or his MLB leading 30 home runs, or his 5.5 fWAR in only 84 games. Judge provided as much value in 84 games this season as Daniel Murphy did in 142 last season. But his peripherals betray how lucky Judge was in terms of his production during the first half.

Judge ran a .426 BABIP during the first half — a figure which would be the highest ever had it been over a full season. BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play, tells us how good a player’s contact is and how lucky they’ve been based on which batted balls fall in and which ones don't. As anyone within earshot of his batting practice could tell you, Judge is exceptional at making good contact, but his .426 figure still had a good bit of luck factored into it. And luck usually doesn’t last from week to week. Hence, while Judge was still making good contact, his luck was enhancing his production, but not in a sustainable way.

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There were other warning signs, too. Judge posted an insane 41.7 percent home run/fly ball rate in his first half, which means that for every 10 fly balls Judge hit, four of them went yard. HR/FB percentage is a stat that, much like BABIP, is dependent on contact and luck. Judge makes terrific contact, but even the best hard hitters in baseball — such as Giancarlo Stanton and Nelson Cruz — usually hover around 20-25 percent in terms of sustainable figures.

Judge’s 41.7 percent number in the first half indicated that his production with the long ball was a bit flukey. Indeed, since the All-Star break, Judge has hit only seven home runs, for a 17.5 percent HR/FB rate.

The bright side

There is plenty for the Yankees to worry about with Judge: Will he ever reproduce his first half? What if he doesn’t? What will we do with these wigs? But there are some promising signs that give hope that he’ll break out of his second-half slump eventually.

For starters, Judge has learned how to take his walks, something that was a large concern when he was called up in 2016. Despite the drop-off in production, Judge is walking in roughly 20 percent of plate appearances in the second half — almost double the rate from his debut in 2016. Judge's issues at the plate can also be attributed to the fact that he is chasing pitches more frequently. Judge is swinging at pitches out of the zone 4 percent more in the second half than he did in the first, as pitchers are giving him nothing over the strike zone.

Mostly, pitchers have adjusted to Judge by pitching him down and away, where he chases breaking balls, or going up and in, where he can't barrel the ball. If Judge cuts down on the chasing, eventually pitchers will have to give him something to hit.

Judge is also being unlucky in the same places where he was lucky in the first half. He's posting only a .263 BABIP in the second half, which is well below what Judge would be expected to hit, especially given his power. In addition, xwOBA, a stat that looks at how much a player could expect to produce based on the type of contact he's making, says that Judge is dramatically underperforming. His second-half xwOBA is .365, but his actual wOBA is .306, indicating that Judge has had an unlucky second half, something that isn't likely to continue. 

The Yankees can also take solace in that Judge’s prowess for hitting baseballs at inhuman speeds hasn’t completely vanished either. Judge is still fifth in the majors in average exit velocity. As Stanton proves every season, hit the ball hard and results will follow eventually. Judge can take solace in that he profiles as a very similar hitter to Stanton.

Judge’s first half was crazy good — and crazy unsustainable. While he’s slumping quite a bit in the second half, there’s no reason for the Yankees to think that he has flamed out. Rather, he’s regressing toward his true talent levels.

When all is said and done, Judge will have still have had a stellar season, and while he might not be able to replicate his first half ever again, he still looks to be every bit the cornerstone player that the Yankees need him to be.

John Edwards