Fantasy Football 2017: Players who move down PPR rankings

Tony Fortier-Bensen

Fantasy Football 2017: Players who move down PPR rankings image

When you join a fantasy football PPR league, the first instinct is to immediately look for the players whose values improve from standard scoring leagues.  As important as that is, it's also important to mark your cheat sheets with potential busts who aren't as valuable and drop in PPR rankings.

As obvious as it sounds, the running backs that suffer the most are -- go figure -- the ones who don't catch passes and aren't really used heavily in the passing game. These type of running backs include big bruisers, goal-line carriers, and those who already have designated receiving backs on their teams. For WRs, it's the boom-or-bust types like Ted Ginn Jr. who spread out a defense but only catch a couple or so passes a game.

Similar to the PPR risers we pointed out, one point per reception can make a difference, but looking at the overall season, it doesn’t necessarily mean a player like LeGarrette Blount will drop tremendously in the rankings if he still scores the most touchdowns among RBs like last year. However, Blount's dependency on touchdowns does hurt him in PPR leagues since other RBs can stack up points from receptions quickly.  nstead of being in the top-15 range among RBs, he might drop closer to the top-20 or 25 range. In 0.5 point per reception leagues, the difference amounts to even less.

2017 RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight End 
D/ST | Kicker | Top 200

Even still, there are running backs, wide receivers and tight ends in PPR leagues whom you should note as possible "overdraft candidates" in your rankings.

2017 Fantasy Football: Fallers in PPR rankings

Biggest drop-offs

RBs: LeGarrette Blount, Eagles; Marshawn Lynch, Raiders; Jonathan Stewart, Panthers; Jeremy Hill, Bengals; Rob Kelley, Redskins

Throughout their careers, Blount and Lynch have never been the types of backs to catch passes. Blount's career high is 15 receptions, and Lynch's career average of 25 receptions a season showcase that. ... Of similar size and stature, Kelley is in the same boat. For all three players, their offenses are centered around handing the ball to them, not throwing to them. The Redskins rely heavily on Chris Thompson, the Eagles with Darren Sproles, and the Raiders, who don't throw to RBs for the most part in general, have Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington as pass-catching backs.

Rookies are expected to take over the passing game out of the backfield for the Bengals and Panthers. Stewart has collected only 24 receptions in the past two years, and Hill, only in his third year in the NFL, has always had Giovani Bernard to handle the receiving back duties while he trucked his way through the field. PPR-wise, Joe Mixon, who appears to be Bernard's successor for this year, and Christian McCaffrey, will be much more valuable for the Bengals and Panthers, respectively.

WRs: Taylor Gabriel, Falcons; Kenny Stills, Dolphins; Ted Ginn Jr, Saints

All three of these players fit the role as boom-or-bust, deep-threat, spread-out-the-defense guys. Gabriel and Stills both had fewer than 45 receptions and averaged 16-plus yards per catch, the definition of big-play machines. ... Ginn Jr, while the third-best WR on a prolific Saints offense, will still be used mostly as a deep threat. Drew Brees will turn to Michael Thomas and Willie Snead the most, and Ginn's history of dropped passes also doesn't help his cause.

TE: Cameron Brate, Buccaneers; Tyler Eifert, Bengals

Brate's success in fantasy last year hinged mostly on his eight touchdowns, tied for most among TEs. His receptions were middle of the pack, tied for 12th-most. With the new additions of DeSean Jackson and fellow TE O.J. Howard, he may see even fewer targets. ... Eifert, when he's on the field, is a big-play TE. In all four years of his career, he's averaged over 11 yards per catch. While he scores plenty of points for his big plays, his value decreases with the few receptions he does bring in. Even when he scored 13 TDs in 2015, he averaged just four receptions per game.

2017 SLEEPERS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Each team

Surprise drop-offs

RBs: Carlos Hyde, 49ers; Isaiah Crowell, Browns; Mike Gillislee, Patriots

These three running backs have the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, but it's their respective backups who might steal most of their receiving chances. It's been reported that Joe Williams may be a better fit than Hyde in new head coach Kyle Shanahan's system, where Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman shined for the Falcons as pass-catchers. ... Crowell had 30 more receptions in 2016 than he did in 2015, but it doesn't erase the fact that Duke Johnson still finished with the eighth-most receptions among RBs in 2016 and after a top-five finish in '15. ...Gillislee, while he looks the part of a receiving back, is battling with two stud pass-catchers in James White and Dion Lewis. Gillislee is merely filling the "LeGarrette Blount role" of last year.

On paper, these three backs don't really seem like they would lose value in a PPR league, but they easily could have more points if their backups weren't the main focus in the passing game out of the backfield.

WRs: Marvin Jones, Lions; Sterling Shepherd, Giants

With a gunslinger like Matthew Stafford and over 100 targets, you'd think Jones would be a perfect candidate for a PPR boost, but he somehow isn't. He finished last year with 55 receptions, outside the top 50 among WRs. The year before in Cincinnati, his numbers were similar. Rookie Kenny Golladay is gaining steam for a starting spot and  a major role in Detroit, and that could have an even larger effect on Jones. ... Shepherd was quietly a dependable target for Eli Manning last year, but the addition of Brandon Marshall hurts his chances this season. He's expected to fill the slot receiver role for the Giants, but his size and speed make him a candidate as a deep-ball threat, as well. Either way, his production will take a hit with Marshall opposite of Odell Beckham Jr.

TEs: Delanie Walker, Titans; Martellus Bennett, Packers

Walker is a type of tight end who will be there when you need him. He's had 60-plus receptions in each of the past four years, including a TE-best 94 in 2015. But at 33, he could be on the decline. Just last year, his receptions declined to 65.Marcus Mariota might begin to look at his WRs more often now that they added fifth overall pick Corey Davis and free agent signee Eric Decker. ... Bennett had a bounce-back year taking the place of oft-injured Rob Gronkowski, recording a career-high in touchdowns. His 55 receptions were middle of the pack, but it had more to do with only starting 12 games, including some with Gronkowski. It's easy to expect him to continue last year's revival with Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers' use of tight ends is limited. Rodgers' three main WR targets had a combined 262 receptions. His top tight end had 30. Bennett won't significantly change that.

DRAFT STRATEGY AND TIERS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST

Not as big of drop-offs as you might think

RBs: Jay Ajayi, Dolphins; C.J. Anderson, Broncos; Thomas Rawls/Eddie Lacy, Seahawks

In his first season as a starter last year, Ajayi wasn't used much in the passing game. He averaged about two receptions a game and went to the sidelines most of the time on third-down passing plays. This year, Miami coaches said Ajayi has improved "200 percent" in his pass-catching skills, leading us to believe he'll get more passing-game work.That doesn't mean he'll become a PPR monster, but he won't drop off as much as the numbers indicate. ... Anderson is an oddball when it comes to his receiving numbers. They just weren't there last year because of his injury, but in the two previous years, he was on pace to be around the top-10 in receptions if he didn't start only 12 games combined. Many things have majorly hurt Anderson's value since his top-five fantasy ranking in 2014, but his receiving skills aren't a total killer in his value. It doesn't hurt that his top two backups, Jamaal Charles (knee) and Devontae Booker (wrist), are banged up, while Denver's main receiving-back threat, De'Angelo Henderson, is just a rookie. All three will be slowly worked into action around Week 1. ... Rawls and Lacy are battling out for the starting spot, but either way, their points won't get big boosts because of receptions. C.J. Prosise is the expected third-down receiving back, but Rawls and Lacy have the hands to catch passes when Russell Wilson scrambles.

WRs: DeSean Jackson, Buccaneers; Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers; Tyreek Hill, Chiefs

Jackson has always been the stereotypical boom-or-bust fantasy WR, and deservedly so, averaging 17.6 yards per catch, most among WRs with 50-plus receptions. This year, his role may change a bit. Jackson is the No. 2 WR option after Mike Evans, and after Jackson, there's not much behind him. When his value usually takes a hit in PPR, the hit might not be as much as usual this particular year because of his potential for an expanded role. ... Benjamin, despite being the No. 1 WR for the Panthers, doesn't quite put up the number of receptions he should. He only had 63 receptions last year, outside the top 35 among WRs. He's still Cam Newton's No. 1 WR, so he should still get his 100-plus targets, but Newton's inaccuracy and Benjamin's history with drops (11 in 2014) makes him fall just a bit in PPR. ... The Chiefs are notorious for not throwing to their receivers much, and even if Hill picks up a chunk of Jeremy Maclin's 76 targets, he could finish second to the team to TE Travis Kelce in targets and receptions. However, his role as Kansas City's "WR1" means he should still hold his own in PPR leagues, even if he is somewhat-reliant on big plays.

TEs: Hunter Henry, Chargers

It's expected that Henry will slowly overtake Antonio Gates as the Chargers' season goes, but that doesn't mean Gates will just disappear. Gates, despite being 36, had a healthier amount of targets and receptions than the rookie Henry, who finished 27th in receptions among TEs last year. Henry's saving grace was tying Cameron Brate with eight touchdowns. With Gates still in the mix, Henry's receptions will take a hit, but at the same time, he should surpass last year's statistics.

Tony Fortier-Bensen