Women's World Championship 2019: Canada vs. USA rivalry by the numbers

Mike Murphy

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Women's World Championship 2019: Canada vs. USA rivalry by the numbers image

It has been called the greatest rivalry in team sports and the next chapter begins Saturday at the 2019 IIHF Women's World Championship in Espoo, Finland.

Hockey Canada and USA Hockey are unquestionably the superpowers in the world of women’s hockey. Together, they have claimed gold and silver in the last three Winter Olympics and every Women’s World Championship tournament over the past two decades.

MORE: Women's World Championship 2019: Canada scores, schedule, how to live stream

What sets this rivalry apart from others is just how closely matched these national teams are. Players on both sides of the border regularly say that either team can win on any given night; however, it’s the U.S. who has been collecting all of the medals lately — and Canada knows it.

To help set the stage, Sporting News dove into the numbers from the last three seasons of this great rivalry, starting with the 2016 Four Nations Cup and carrying it through the 19 games since.

The Records

(W-L-OTL/SOL)

USA: 10-7-2
CAN: 8-9-2

The Americans have had a clear edge in the series over the past three seasons, which is highlighted by a 4-0-0 record in games where a gold medal or the Four Nations Cup were on the line.

After being beat-up by Canada in the six-game exhibition series leading up to the Pyeongchang Olympics, Team USA has won six of the last nine meetings; however, Canada did win two games in the three-game 2019 Rivalry Series. The momentum, at least for the moment, is on the Canadians' side.

Quick Hits 

In the last few years, 15 games between USA and Canada have been decided by two goals or less; four of those games have required overtime.

With these close games, the first goal is obviously critical. This is especially true when considering the team that has scored the first goal of the game has won 68.42 percent of the games. USA, in particular, has enjoyed a lot of success early in games. The Americans have outscored Canada  15-11 in the first period of games, although the majority of the goals (29) in the series have been scored in the third period.

So just how close are these two teams matched? There have been 84 goals scored in this series since the 2016 Four Nations tournament in Finland and USA has scored 44 of them — a four-goal margin.

Team USA’s big trio of Hilary Knight, Brianna Decker and Kendall Coyne Schofield have scored 25 of the team’s 44 goals.

MORE: Canada's Jamie Lee Rattray talks team chemistry, facing USA and Marie-Philip Poulin

Strengths

Team USA’s greatest strength in the last three years against its rival north of the border has been its ability to generate shots on goal. With 30.52 shots for per 60 minutes (SF60) it is a clear cut above Canada’s rate of 25.53 SF60. Shot totals are typically a good indication of possession, especially in larger sample sizes. So, if you’re looking to give an edge in possession to one team in this rivalry, it has to go to the U.S. 

Part of the Americans' edge in generating shots is likely due to their success in drawing penalties. They have had nine more power play opportunities than Canada in this window. If we exclude the 2019 Rivalry Series and the six-game friendly series before the 2018 Olympics, Team Canada is averaging 5.1 penalties per game against Team USA. 

Despite that, the edge in special teams goes to Canada. Its 13.92 percent success rate on the power play is only marginally better than the American's 13.48 percent, but it has a 92.50 percent penalty kill and a 21.05 percent PP since Pyeongchang. It looks like Canada did some major work on special teams after allowing six power-play goals to the U.S. at the 2017 Four Nations Cup. It’s also worth mentioning that Canada has scored on the power play in five of its eight wins over the last three years. 

Canada has also had better goaltending in the rivalry by a significant margin; the Canadians have had a .931 team save percentage against USA Hockey over the last three years. This has been buoyed by two veteran goaltenders — Shannon Szabados and Geneviève Lacasse — posting a save percentage above .940. 

There are many who believe that Team USA has at least three of the top five forwards in the women’s game. In spite of all of that firepower, Canada has held American skaters to a combined 7.85 shooting percentage and eight 1 or 0-goal games over the last three years. In and of itself, that is a remarkable achievement for Canada’s defense and goaltending.

If you’re looking for Canada’s greatest strength, look no further than the goal crease.

Top Performers 

Both teams have players who seem to take their already elite skills to another level when they face each other. Unsurprisingly, the top three players from both teams are among the biggest names in the world of women’s hockey. 

MORE: 10 players to watch at the 2019 Women's World Championship​

Hilary Knight

Knight has scored more goals and earned more primary points than any other player in the rivalry since the 2016 Four Nations Cup. The big forward, who was recently named the top female hockey player in the world by the NHLPA, has 10 goals and 15 primary points against Canada in that window.

 

As if those numbers weren’t enough evidence of how clutch Knight is, she’s also scored three game-winning goals in her last 19 games against Canada. That’s the highest total among the 55 skaters who have picked up a point in the matchup over the last three years. Knight is simply as good as it gets.

Brianna Decker

Decker is the player to watch on the power play when Canada and the U.S. cross sticks. She has picked up six points on the power play over the last three seasons, which is more than any other skater.

USA’s top center isn’t a slouch at even strength either. Decker and Knight lead all U.S. and Canadian skaters in scoring since the 2016 Four Nations tournament with 17 points each. Decker is one of just four players in that span to score seven or more goals.

Kendall Coyne Schofield

The fastest woman on the planet scored Team USA’s first goal in Finland against the host nation on Thursday. Coyne Schofield averaged 20:20 TOI/GP in Pyeongchang, which included an amazing 27:21 against Canada in the gold-medal game.

Her speed has helped her make a big impact against Canada at even strength and on the power play and she’s picked up 16 points — 13 of which are primary — in her last three seasons against Team Canada. Decker and Knight are the only players who have scored more than Team USA’s captain in the last 19 meetings.

Marie-Philip Poulin

One of the biggest storylines coming into this year’s tournament is whether or not Poulin will be able to play. She missed the entire 2019 Clarkson Cup Playoffs but took to the ice for warmups and the ceremonial face off in the Clarkson Cup Final on March 24. She also sat on the bench for Canada’s first game of the Worlds against Switzerland on Thursday morning.

MORE: No Marie-Philip Poulin, no problem for Canada in opening game of WWC

Poulin averaged 21:48 TOI/GP against the USA in Pyeongchang as Canada’s top line center. That’s a lot of ice time to fill for head coach Perry Pearn.

 

Over the last three seasons, she leads Canada in goals and points against the Americans with eight goals (seven at even strength). Canada is going to miss Poulin’s ability to finish and create golden scoring chances on the power play if she’s unable to play. It’s worth noting that Canada is already without another star forward in Meghan Agosta, who had her first child in December.

Shannon Szabados

Szabados has a 3-3-2 record against Team USA in the last three years, but don’t hold her record against her. The two-time Olympic gold medalist has a .944 save percentage against the U.S. since the fall of 2016. That’s dramatically better than Alex Rigsby’s .907, who has appeared in nine games for the U.S. in that same window; Maddie Rooney, who has started in seven games, including the gold medal game in Pyeongchang, has a .924 save percentage against Canada.

Interestingly enough, Szabados has been in net for all four of the games that have gone to overtime between USA and Canada in the last three years. It would be an understatement to say that she gives Canada a chance to win whenever she’s between the pipes. She started her 2019 Worlds with a six-save shutout against Team Switzerland Thursday morning.

MORE: Shannon Szabados, Canada 'We've got to focus on now'​

Prediction

Momentum may be on Canada’s side after the 2019 Rivalry Series, but USA’s 4-0-0 record when a gold medal or the Four Nations Cup title is on the line over the last three years feels far more significant. Both teams are missing key veterans from Pyeongchang with Meghan Duggan (USA) and Agosta (Canada) out of the picture, but the uncertainty surrounding Poulin’s injury puts the Canadians at a severe disadvantage. Even if she’s able to play, she won’t be at 100 percent and there’s just no replacing a player like Poulin.

If this rivalry has taught us anything it’s that anything can happen when Canada and the U.S. play each other. With that being said, the Americans are the team to beat and because of that, they’re the favorites at this year’s Worlds.

Mike Murphy