History is not on the side of the Ottawa Senators.
Never before have the Sens been in such dire straits this late in the season and still made the playoffs.
The Senators have only 30 points through 34 games. They are 12 points behind both the Rangers and Islanders for the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, with six teams between them and eighth place. They also trail the Bruins by 13 points for third place in the Atlantic Division.
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If there is a sliver of hope at all for Guy Boucher’s squad it is that the Senators own games in hand on every team in the East, except the Bruins whom they play coming out of the holiday break Wednesday at TD Garden and again Saturday in Ottawa. The Sens must take four points in those two games.
However, even if the team goes on an extended streak, odds are slim the Nation’s Capital will host any playoff games this spring. Per analytic site, Hockey Viz, the Senators’ postseason chances are a meager nine per cent. The club likely needs to win 33 of 48 remaining games to put some extra dollars in the coffers of recently-combative owner Eugene Melynk.
Historically, the Senators never competed in the postseason after a 32-point opening in 34 games, let alone their current 30-point total. This includes two improbable runs -- the first in the 2009-10 campaign, the second in 2014-15.
After being embarrassed by the Atlanta Thrashers 6-1 in January of 2010, Ottawa’s fifth consecutive defeat, Senators coach Cory Clouston decided to lighten the mood in the midst of a long road swing. On Jan. 13, Clouston booked his team for a skate in Central Park.
The rejuvenated Senators, with emergency callup Mike Brodeur in goal, then shut out the Rangers 2-0, spring-boarding them to an eleven-game win streak and eventual playoff berth. The Senators went 22-11-2 down the stretch. However, that squad garnered 38 points in their first 34 games, eight more than the current team.
Even the Sens squad that rode the record-breaking Hamburglar streak in February-March 2015, was at least .500 (14-14-6) at the 34-game mark. The Senators were a middling 22-22-10 when goaltender Andrew Hammond made his second NHL appearance Feb. 16 following a season-ending injury to starting goaltender Robin Lehner.
Hammond allowed two goals or less in his first 12 NHL starts, becoming the second goalie in league history to do so, joining Hall of Famer Frank Brimsek of the 1938-39 Bruins.
The Senators finished 2015 with an incredible 21-4-3 record down the stretch, becoming the first franchise to overcome a 14-point deficit so late in the season to qualify for the playoffs.
Does this current Senators team have what it takes to make such an improbable, historic run?
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They are after all largely the same group which pushed the Penguins to overtime in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Final only seven months ago.
However, this year’s edition won consecutive games only three times this season, with their longest winning streak totaling three games. Coming off Saturday’s 1-0 loss to the Panthers, the Sens are 3-12-3 in their last 18 games since Nov. 16.
The Sens can ill afford to wait any longer to make their run. It must begin Wednesday in Boston, and proceed from there.