The NHL regular season is nearing the end. Practically six teams from each conference are set for the postseason, but the wild card race is raging.
Mathematically, only Tampa Bay, Boston and Nashville have clinched the playoff spots , but the other locks are so close to 100 percent there’s no chance they’d fall out of the picture.
Each week, AccuScore will update its 2018 Stanley Cup playoffs forecast by simulating the remainder of the NHL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to the Stanley Cup. Below are the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NHL playoffs and how they have changed.
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AccuScore's odds to make NHL playoffs
Probability vs. weekly % change
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 100.00 | 0 |
| Boston Bruins | 100.00 | 0 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 100.00 | 0 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 100.00 | 0 |
| Nashville Predators | 100.00 | 0 |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 100.00 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 100.00 | 0 |
| Washington Capitals | 100.00 | 0 |
| San Jose Sharks | 99.00 | +6.0 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 99.00 | +11.0 |
| Minnesota Wild | 97.00 | +3.0 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 96.00 | +8.0 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 93.00 | +25.0 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 90.00 | +22.0 |
| New Jersey Devils | 78.00 | +2.0 |
| St. Louis Blues | 58.00 | +24.0 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 56.00 | -5.0 |
| Florida Panthers | 28.00 | -16.0 |
| Dallas Stars | 7.00 | -56.0 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 0.003 | -3.0 |
| Calgary Flames | 0.001 | -19.0 |
Eliminated from playoff contention (0.00%): Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, Detroit Red Wings, New York Islanders, New York Rangers
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Eastern Conference playoff picture
In the East, the top three teams in each division are all but set. Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto are likely to take the Atlantic, while Washington, Pittsburgh and Columbus are more than 99 percent probable in the Metropolitan division.
The Philadelphia Flyers, Florida Panthers and New Jersey Devils are still in the mix for the wild-ard spots. The Flyers have the advantage with four points to New Jersey and seven points to Florida. However, the Panthers have three games in hand compared to the Flyers and two to the Devils. While Florida can still leapfrog the Devils, the wild-card spots are the Flyers and Devils' to lose.
Philadelphia's probability to keep a playoff berth is 96 percent, up 8 percent from last week. The Devils are at 78 percent while the Panthers have fallen 16 percent.
The New York teams are effectively out of the contest, with their already dwindling numbers down to 0 percent from last update. The Carolina Hurricanes can start their summer preparations as well, with just a 0.003 percent chance for the playoffs.
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Western Conference playoff picture
The West is pretty much wide open. The locks are the Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets and Vegas Golden Knights , with the San Jose Sharks and Minnesota Wild all but certain as well.
Down the line it gets a lot hairier, with the Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks, Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues still very much in the mix. The Dallas Stars are hanging in there, as well, but their current form isn’t exactly encouraging.
The Kings and Ducks are battling not only for the wild card spot, but the third place in the Pacific Division. The Kings hold the edge with a better ROW number. Their playoff chances are up more than 20 percent since the last update. With the Stars falling fast with a measly 7 percent probability to make it to playoffs, the Blues are taking advantage and climbing from 24 percent to 58 percent probability.
What looked like a lost season at around the deadline has turned into a battle for another playoff berth, and the Blues have won five straight.
The head-to-head battle for the final wild card spot seems to be between the surging Avalanche and the Blues. Boasting almost similar numbers as the Blues, the Avalanche have a slim lead. They’re 55.9 percent probability to make it. The Calgary Flames are the latest team hanging by a mathematical thread. Their chances dropped 19 percent from last week to a non-existent at 0.001 percent.
AccuScore's NHL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.