NHL playoffs 2019: Predictions, odds for Bruins vs. Blue Jackets second-round series

The first-round matchup between the Columbus Blue Jackets and Tampa Bay Lightning was supposed to be a walkover. The Lightning, runaway winner of the Presidents' Trophy with 128 points versus an eighth-seeded Columbus team who gained a playoff berth in the final few days of the season — a 30-point differential between the two teams.

When the Lightning jumped to a 3-0 lead in the first period of the series lid-lifter, jokes of “Tampa in one” appeared on Twitter. But to their credit, the Blue Jackets never wavered. John Tortorella’s club continued to chip away until finally taking a 4-3 lead late in the game on a Seth Jones blast.

The Lightning never got their mojo back from that moment on. Employing a heavy forecheck and playing the trap to a tee, Columbus appeared to shut down the league’s top team with surprisingly relative ease — culminating in a four-game sweep over the Stanley Cup favorite — something no one could’ve predicted nor has ever been seen before.

SN STAFF PREDICTIONS:
Eastern Conference | Western Conference | Stanley Cup  

After eight days off, the league’s hottest team with wins in 11 of the last 12 games, face the Boston Bruins in a familiar position as an underdog. Boston, the NHL’s third-best team during the regular season, is coming off a hard-fought seven-game series win over the Toronto Maple Leafs with only one day of rest. 

The Bruins ability to shut down the Maple Leafs top scorers, with the exception of Auston Matthews, was clearly the difference as John Tavares and Mitch Marner were limited two goals apiece.

Boston Bruins (-170) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (+145): Schedule, breakdown, prediction

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Season series

Interestingly, the clubs did not face each other until the final three weeks of the season; therefore the Bruins are quite familiar with the Blue Jackets post-trade deadline lineup that includes newcomers Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel.

Boston and Columbus traded lopsided wins, while Brad Marchand netted two goals including the OT winner in the Bruins 2-1 victory on March 16. Columbus' April 2 loss was its only defeat in the squads final eight games down the stretch of the regular season.

Offense

Columbus: Having appeared in only eight previous postseason games, Duchene was chomping at the bit when the playoffs opened up. The former Ottawa Senator led the Blue Jackets in goals (three) and points (seven) in the opening round and helped lead a balanced attack that saw Columbus average 4.75 goals-per-game against the Lightning.

In their first-round matchup,12 different players scored in the four-game sweep for the Blue Jackets. A 41-goal scorer during the regular season, Cam Atkinson posted a pair as did Oliver Bjorkstrand, d-man Seth Jones, Artemi Panarin and Alexandre Texier. The Frenchman, Texier, has been a surprise for the Blue Jackets as he played in just two NHL games prior to the playoffs, scoring his first career tally in the season finale versus the Senators.

Boston: A 100-point producer in the regular season, Marchand led the Bruins in all offensive categories versus the Maple Leafs (four goals, five assists). Similar to the Blue Jackets, all four of the Bruins lines are capable of chipping in and 17 different players compiled at least one point in the seven-game tilt.

Head coach Bruce Cassidy’s subtle move of dropping a slumping David Pastrnak to the second line paid off in spades. The ability to ice a pair of lines containing Marchand-Patrice Bergeron and Pastrnak-Krejci will keep the Blue Jackets on their toes.

Edge: Even. Each team also possesses offense from the defense as Columbus' Jones and Zach Werenski and Boston's Torey Krug and Charlie McAvoy are all excellent puck-moving blueliners.

Defense

Columbus: Led by the pairing of Jones and Werenski, the Blue Jackets ice one of the better defensive duos in the NHL. But they also have a strong core. Considered one of the most under-the-radar defensemen in the NHL, David Savard scored eight goals during the regular season and had a plus-19 rating — tops among Blue Jackets d-men. Markus Nutivaara is hopeful to return for Game 1 from his injury suffered at the hands of the Lightning Nikita Kucherov who received a suspension for driving the unsuspected Finn into the boards.

Boston: While Krug and McAvoy performed as expected, Brandon Carlo’s ability to be used as a shutdown defender during the first round was one of the keys to the Bruins’ series victory. The six-foot-5 Carlo utilized his size down low and stepped up at the blueline to stop many a Maple Leafs rush.

And any club that can send six-foot-nine, 42-year-old Zdeno Chara over the boards at 21 minutes and 34 seconds per game certainly holds the advantage. Chara leads all NHL blueliners in plus-minus (plus-6) during the postseason.

Edge: Bruins hold an edge defensively.  

Goaltending

Columbus: Sergei Bobrovsky had bouts of inconsistency during the season and was suspended by the team following a disagreement when he was being pulled from a game in January. However, the pending unrestricted free agent found his game at the right time as Tortorella’s go-to starter, leading the Blue Jackets to a playoff berth.

The Blue Jackets can credit “Bob” for their Game 1 victory over the Lightning and propelling them to the series win. Bobrovsky allowed a pair of questionable first-period goals but locked it down over the final forty minutes and the remainder of the series. His 2.01 goals-against-average and .932 save percentage rank fourth among playoff netminders.

Joonas Korpisalo had a middling year as the backup. His 2.95 GAA and .897 save percentage were well below league average, so the Blue Jackets run is fully dependent on Bobrovsky.

Boston: Led by the tandem of Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak, the Bruins ranked third in the NHL with a team 2.59 GAA during the regular season.

Rask performed admirably against the Maple Leafs highly-touted offense in the first round. The netminder ranked fifth in GAA (2.31) and save percentage (.928), slightly behind his Blue Jackets counterpart Bobrovsky.

Having a veteran of 28 playoff starts such as Halak on the bench lends the Bruins  The Slovak had a solid regular season posting a 2.34 GAA and .922 save percentage.

Edge: Blue Jackets — While the Bruins combination is superior, the postseason play of Bobrovsky trumps all.

Special teams

Columbus: Running at only 15.4 percent, the Blue Jackets held the fourth-worst power play during the regular season; however, the arrival of Duchene did add consistency to the unit. Columbus scored on five of 10 opportunities versus the Lightning and its 50 percent effectiveness is tops among all playoff teams.

First Line PP unit

Artemi Panarin — Matt Duchene — Nick Foligno

Zach Werenski — Cam Atkinson

Conversely, the Blue Jackets 85 percent effective penalty kill tied with the Lightning for the league’s best during the regular season.

Boston:  The Bruins held the NHL’s third-best PP during the regular season, running at 25.93 percent effectiveness. They’ve done even better, albeit in a small sample size during the playoffs, second only to the Blue Jackets at 43.8 percent.

First line PP unit  

Brad Marchand — Patrice Bergeron — Marcus Johansson

David Pastrnak — Torey Krug

If the Bruins have any weakness, it’s on the penalty kill. The team iced a 16th-ranked regular season PK (78.9 percent), while the unit has been slightly better during the playoffs (81.3 percent).

Edge: Blue Jackets 

Key players to watch

Oliver Bjorkstrand (CBJ) — Right wing Oliver Bjorkstrand may have been the most unknown 20-plus goal scorer in the NHL this season as he netted a career-high 23. The Dane’s play in the first round earned him a promotion to the top line featuring Panarin and centre Pierre-Luc Dubois. Averaging 16:17 of ice time, Bjorkstrand is currently on a point-per-game pace during the postseason (two goals, two assists in four games).

Jake DeBrusk (BOS) — Jake DeBrusk was a thorn in the Maple Leafs’ side, notably to Nazem Kadri who took out his frustration on the pesky forward earning him a series-ending suspension.

DeBrusk is a heady two-way player who combines physicality with offensive prowess. Although he was limited to one goal in the opening round, the 22-year-old scored 27 goals in 68 regular season games during his sophomore NHL campaign.

Bruins vs. Blue Jackets playoff history

This is the first time in NHL history these two teams will meet in the playoffs.

Last five playoff appearances

Boston Bruins

Columbus Blue Jackets

Bruins vs. Blue Jackets prediction

Since it’s the year of the upset — Blue Jackets in seven games.