The 2022 Stanley Cup Final begins Wednesday night with the Colorado Avalanche (-200) hosting the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning (+147) inside Ball Arena. Ahead of Game 1, Colorado defenseman Cale Makar is the betting favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, leading his team with 22 total points through the first three rounds. Makar’s teammate, Nathan MacKinnon, is the other co-favorite for playoffs MVP, as he stands second on the team with 18 total points throughout the postseason.
Below, we’ll break down the top players and a couple of longer-odd sleepers who could potentially win the Conn Smythe Trophy. It’s important to note that the Conn Smythe is a playoff-long award, not just a Stanley Cup Final series award. These odds will likely alter as the series progresses between the Avalanche and Lightning.
Conn Smythe odds 2022: Favorites to win Stanley Cup playoffs MVP
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Cale Makar, D, Avalanche (+170)
With how dominant Makar has been during Colorado’s run to the Stanley Cup Final (22 points in nine games), the 23-year-old defenseman seems likely to win the Conn Smythe if the Avalanche take down the Lightning. It’s absurd to see a defenseman rack up this many points over a large enough sample size of games, signifying Makar’s utter dominance at such a young age.
With Colorado’s series price sitting at -200 (implied probability 66.67 percent) and Makar’s current price point to win the Conn Smythe at +170 (implied probability 37.04 percent), if you’re contemplating laying it with the Avs to win the cup, consider a wager on Makar to win the Conn Smythe. You can risk less taking Makar to win the Conn Smythe relative to just betting on Colorado to win the Cup.
Nathan MacKinnon, C, Avalanche (+203)
If it weren’t for Makar’s legendary playoff showing, MacKinnon would be the runaway favorite to win the Conn Smythe. MacKinnon’s been a key piece in Colorado’s Western Conference playoff dominance, scoring 11 goals and totaling 18 points over the Avs 14 postseason games.
There’s a chance MacKinnon wins the Conn Smythe with a big Stanley Cup Final, and at +203 (implied probability 33 percent), he’s worthy of a wager.
Conn Smythe odds 2022: Sleepers to win Stanley Cup playoffs MVP
Steven Stamkos, C, Lightning (+1320)
Stamkos enters the Stanley Cup Final after a productive Eastern Conference Final that saw the 32-year-old center score five goals in six games. Over the first three rounds, the Lightning’s all-time leader in points has racked up 15 points (nine goals, six assists), and at +1320 (implied probability 7.04 percent), he’s a realistic sleeper to win the Conn Smythe.
If Tampa Bay upsets Colorado to claim their third-straight Stanley Cup, Stamkos will likely make a compelling case.
Victor Hedman, D, Lightning (+1980)
Hedman, the 2020 Conn Smythe trophy winner, is another deep sleeper who could win his second playoff MVP trophy with a strong Stanley Cup Final performance.
The long-shot odds (implied probability 4.81 percent) suggest it’s likely not going to happen, but, similar to Stamkos, if the Lightning claim their third straight Stanley Cup, it’s fair to expect Hedman to put forth an efficient Stanley Cup Final performance. Hedman’s totaled 14 points through the first three rounds (two goals, 12 assists), and if he has a memorable moment or two, (maybe a game-winning OT goal?), he could find himself in MVP talks.
Full list of odds to win the 2022 Conn Smythe Trophy
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