WINNIPEG -- Connor Hellebuyck’s play thus far this season is a well-timed revelation.
The 24-year-old Michigan product has been nothing short of spectacular manning the crease for the Jets, who own a respectable 6-3-2 record through 11 games. Hellebuyck has a sterling 1.91 goals-against average and .940 save percentage – numbers that have him flirting with the league's best netminders.
Indeed, dig a little deeper into the numbers, and Hellebuyck’s early analytical assessment shows just how valuable he has become after an offseason where the Jets went out and signed Steve Mason as their No. 1 goaltending choice.
With the Jets sitting close to the basement of the NHL in terms of shot share (possession) and expected goals for (represented as xG, which is a metric that evaluates a shot’s probability of hitting the back of the net based shot angle and distance, among other variables), Hellebuyck has played a big role in Winnipeg stealing wins in games — statistically speaking — they had a good chance of losing.
Winnipeg’s initial plan for this season was to have Mason, the man they signed for two years and $8.2 million in July, assume the reins and run with them as the team’s de facto No. 1 netminder.
That plan revealed itself throughout training camp and into the first week of the regular season. Mason, the Calder Trophy winner as the league's rookie of the year during the 2008-09 season, began his 10th season in the NHL with the Jets, starting the club’s first two games.
Those plans took a temporary shift after Mason stumbled out of the gate, allowing 11 goals over both starts.
Hellebuyck's role this season was thought to be that of an understudy, but instead the former college standout from UMass Lowell was thrust into action for the Jets third game and he's played seven of their past nine games since.
There’s little chance Jets coach Paul Maurice figured Hellebuyck would start seven of his team’s first 11 games after a rocky 2016-17 campaign, but Hellebuyck wrestled the No.1 spot back for the time being with a solid 6-0-1 record.
So what do the analytics say about Hellebuyck and the Jets? First, Let’s start with a quick disclaimer.
Winnipeg has only played 11 games this season and Hellebuyck has only made seven starts. He’s been very good in those seven starts, mind you, but it’s a small sample size and things could still go pear-shaped for him.
He’s also likely to regress as his numbers, with the way the Jets are playing around him at the moment, and generally speaking, aren’t sustainable over the course of a season.
With that said, early trends and small sample sizes look favourable for Hellebuyck.
Through his seven starts and one relief appearance this season, Hellebuyck ranks ninth in adjusted save percentage at 1.34 (minimum 300 minutes played). Adjusted save percentage (represented as dSv% on websites such as Corsica.Hockey) takes into consideration shot location and doesn’t punish or reward a goalie for making saves closer or further from the net.
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In the world of analytics, dSv% is considered a more accurate metric for save percentage than its traditional counterpart.
Taking this one step further, Hellebuyck’s save percentage thus far on low-danger shots (LDSv%) is a perfect 1.000, meaning he hasn’t surrendered what would be thought of as a weak or bad goal to date. Think of low danger shots as shots mostly from the perimeter areas that surround Hellebuyck.
With 28 saves and a save percentage of .966, Connor Hellebuyck is our @DEKALB_Canada #FinishStrong Performer of the Game! pic.twitter.com/XCIQQhc0Df
— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) November 1, 2017
Essentially, he’s making many of the saves he should be making thus far, stops that weren’t always made last season.
Additionally, Hellebuyck ranks 10th in Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) at 2.11 (minimum 300 minutes played). GSAA, in layman’s terms, boils down to how many goals Hellebuyck has kept out of the back of his net given his save percentage and shots faced compared to the league average of both statistics.
Both GSAA and dSv% are measured in five-on-five situations and do not factor in power play or penalty kill time a goalie sees during a game.
Hellebuyck's improvements, then, are as significant to the Jets as they are impressive individually. It wasn't long ago that he was searching for his wandering confidence after his struggles last season.
He spent the summer working at the NET360 program with goaltending trainer Adam Francilia in Kelowna, B.C., which Hellebuyck credited with changing how he plays the game – biomechanics, as Hellebuyck explained. He’s much more positionally sound this season, for instance, and he appears to be quicker in the crease.
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What remains to be seen is if the team produces more offensively to counteract Hellebuyck's expected statistical regression (as opposed to regression in his play), which will likely creep into his game, as it does to nearly all goalies who save 94 percent of the shots they face.
Hellebuyck’s performances masked some of Winnipeg’s deficiencies in front of him, although some areas witnessed improvement since the Jets first two games, including better puck management and limiting odd-man rushes.
Still, 11 games into the season, the Jets are the 30th-ranked shot share (possession) team at 45.67 per cent and they are 23rdth in expected goals-for percentage (47.94).
With Hellebuyck’s improved play, the question mark now shifts to whether the Jets can even out their play in front of him.