Unlike the opening week of the 2023 XFL season, Week 2 only featured one game that came down to the final two minutes. However, there was still excitement for bettors, as two underdogs (Battlehawks and Defenders) won outright, and two favorites covered the spread (Brahmas and Roughnecks). Through the first two weeks, the favorites have come through on the moneyline, going 5-3 straight up but only 3-5 against the spread.
Week 3 begins on Saturday night, with the Sea Dragons going on the road to play the Vipers at 7 p.m. ET (FX). Both teams are still looking for their first wins as they try to crawl out of the basement in the North division. Then on Sunday, we have a tripleheader starting at 1 p.m. ET between the Battlehawks and Defenders in our nation's capital (FX). St. Louis and D.C. are both undefeated to the start season (2-0), but the Defenders are tied with the Roughnecks as the betting favorites (+300) on BetMGM to win the XFL championship.
Below, we'll break down the best XFL Week 3 bets and give out our predictions on how things could play out across the league:
MORE WEEK 3 XFL: DraftKings lineup
XFL Week 3 picks, predictions
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
Seattle Sea Dragons at Vegas Vipers
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET, FX
- Spread: Sea Dragons -3
- Moneyline: Sea Dragons -160, Vipers +135
- Over/Under: 38
The Sea Dragons and Vipers enter Week 3 in search of their first wins this season after they suffered two tough losses last weekend. Seattle looked in control of its game against the Battlehawks, but costly turnovers were part of its demise. The Vipers finally made the quarterback switch, benching Luis Perez for Brett Hundley; however, it didn't make a big impact, as Vegas' offense only mustered six points on horrible field conditions and could not stop the rushing duo of Abram Smith and D'Eriq King.
Fast forward to this week, and it's hard to trust the Sea Dragons laying three points on the road. They have the playmakers on offense and defense to be one the best teams in the XFL, but QB Ben DiNucci has not done a great job protecting the ball (four turnovers) through two weeks. If Hundley can get into a groove with his receivers and the Vipers' defense plays as it did in Week 1, Vegas should be able to keep this close and cover the spread.
Pick: Sea Dragons 20, Vegas 18 (+3)
St. Louis Battlehawks at DC Defenders
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FX
- Spread: Defenders -2
- Moneyline: Battlehawks +110, Defenders -130
- Over/Under: 35.5
The Battlehawks are road underdogs for the second consecutive week as they look to improve their record to 3-0 on Sunday against the Defenders. St. Louis has yet to play a complete game, but it doesn't matter when you have A.J. McCarron, who has looked like prime Tom Brady in the fourth quarter. Do they have any more late-game magic heading into this week's contest? We will find out.
As for the Defenders, they continue to play their brand of football on both ends, which led to a decisive Week 2 win over the Vipers. D.C. employed the two-QB system again with Jordan Ta'amu and D'Eriq King, helping turn the game in their favor. Ta'amu, King, and RB Abram Smith made life tough for the Vipers' defense, as they ran for 229 yards and two touchdowns. On the defensive end, they held Vegas to 3.8 yards per play and sacked Hundley twice. Heading into Sunday afternoon's game, we should expect the Defenders to be successful against the Battlehawks' run defense, which has allowed 118 rushing yards per game. McCarron will be facing an aggressive D.C. defense, which could lend itself to a turnover or two. Take the Defenders on the spread and also think about the UNDER, too.
Pick: Defenders 18 (-2), Battlehawks 15
Orlando Guardians at Arlington Renegades
Sunday, 4:00 p.m. ET, FX
- Spread: Renegades -9.5
- Moneyline: Guardians +350, Renegades -450
- Over/Under: 37.5
Orlando has been the worst team in the XFL and has no identity on either side of the football. Their play through two weeks almost reminds you of the Pittsburgh Maulers, who were the worst team in the USFL last summer and struggled every week.
The Renegades should easily win this game, with their defense looking to rebound after losing to Houston last week. We don't know who will start at quarterback for the Guardians this week, as Paxton Lynch and Deondre Francois took snaps under center. Lynch completed nine-of-19 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown. He was also sacked twice in their 18-point loss to the Brahmas. Meanwhile, Francois completed six-of-13 passes for eight yards, a touchdown, and an interception. If Dallas' defense can cause a couple of turnovers, then QB Drew Plitt should not have to do much under center except manage the game. However, if Plitt struggles and can't get the offense moving, it wouldn't be surprising to see Kyle Sloter. Nevertheless, the Renegades cover this large spread at home with a couple of defensive touchdowns.
Pick: Renegades 24 (-9.5), Guardians 12
San Antonio Brahmas at Houston Roughnecks
Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
- Spread: Roughnecks -4.5
- Moneyline: Brahmas +165, Roughnecks -200
- Over/Under: 37.5
In the final game for Week 3, we have another in-state showdown, this time between the Brahmas and the Roughnecks. Houston was in trouble last week against the Renegades, as they had a few turnovers, giving Dallas a three-point halftime lead. However, the Roughnecks outscored the Renegades 12-0 in the second half to stay undefeated.
Houston will be tested again this weekend by the Brahmas, who come off a dominating win over Orlando. San Antonio could not get their ground attack going with Kalen Ballage and Jacques Patrick but was able to air it out, which is a good sign heading into Week 3. Jack Coan completed 16-of-24 passes for 165 yards and three touchdowns, but it might be difficult for him to duplicate this performance this week against a physical, aggressive Roughnecks' defense that's posted 12 sacks and five interceptions through the first two weeks. At 4.5 points, we feel comfortable laying this number with the Wade Phillips-led Roughnecks, who are a complete team and a contender to win it all.
Pick: Houston (-4.5) 24, San Antonio 17
