Since the odds for Super Bowl 58 between the 49ers and Chiefs opened nearly two weeks ago, San Francisco has served as a slight favorite over the reigning champions. The Niners remain -2 favorites heading into Super Bowl weekend, even though it seems like everyone and their mom has backed Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Could the 49ers shock the world and actually win this game? Yes, of course! They went 12-5 in the regular season, winning the NFC, and they maintained the third-best scoring offense and defense along the way. Christian McCaffrey, a favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, led the NFL in rushing yards, total yards, and total touchdowns. Brock Purdy flirted with the league lead in multiple stat categories. San Francisco has a complete team from top to bottom.
This column will explore all the reasons why Kyle Shanahan's Niners can indeed win Super Bowl 58, and how bettors should approach the spread, total, and props market if they lean toward that outcome. We'll analyze statistics, dive into specific matchups, and assess the value of various odds, providing you with the game script we would expect if San Francisco pulls off what over 70 percent of bettors feel they cannot.
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada's most trusted sportsbook. Bet on the Super Bowl at SIA now!
Why 49ers will win Super Bowl 58: Prediction against spread vs. Chiefs
49ers balanced offense and defense
All season long, the 49ers have made a great case for their Super Bowl chances. They destroyed the high-flying Cowboys 42-10, dismantled the defending NFC-champion Eagles 42-19, and most recently got past red-hot Packers and Lions teams.
San Francisco has scored 30-plus points a whopping 10 times since Week 1, and only two of the Niners' five losses were by more than a handful of points. Kyle Shanahan's squad has consistently benefited from big-impact plays on both sides of the field, often appearing unstoppable on offense and immovable on defense.
PRINTABLE SUPER BOWL PROPS SHEET
It's rare in this day and age for a team to enjoy the balance San Francisco demonstrated this season. Brock Purdy and the 49ers passed for the second-most touchdowns in the NFL (33) while Steve Wilks' defense amassed the most interceptions (22).
San Fran had the third-most rushing yards and the third-fewest ground yards allowed. CMC and the Niners' backfield compiled a league-leading 27 rushing TDs while Fred Warner's D surrendered just 10 (fourth-fewest). No team had a better red-zone TD percentage (67.2%), or more net yards per pass (8.4), or a higher per-drive average in yards (37.8) or points (2.7).
Chiefs drops, turnovers and overall inconsistency
In contrast, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs had a very inconsistent regular season. Thanks to turnovers, drops, and general communication issues, they lost to the Lions, Eagles, and Packers, three teams that San Francisco defeated. Andy Reid's squad fell to the Bills and suffered uncharacteristic letdowns against the Broncos and Raiders. They have rattled off five straight victories since New Year's Eve, but it's important to look at those games in context.
Kansas City's home stretch of the season was easy-peasy, with QB matchups against the Raiders' Aidan O'Connell, the Bengals' Jake Browning, and the Chargers' Easton Stick. The first round of the playoffs saw a warm-weather Miami squad come into Arrowhead Stadium in sub-zero real-feel temperatures. Talk about a storybook path — things started feeling like destiny for Team Swift and the reigning-champion Chiefs.
From there, Mahomes and company beat perennial playoff choke artists Josh Allen and the Bills and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Despite their status as perennial MVP contender and two-time MVP, respectively, Allen and LJax now have a combined postseason record of 7-9. In comparison, Purdy's playoff record is now 4-1, his only loss coming against Philadelphia in the 2023 NFC Championship Game when he got hurt after throwing just four passes.
49ers trends in wins
The 49ers have lost the turnover battle just once in the 11 games since their Week 9 bye, the one game Purdy lost during that stretch (vs. Baltimore). Bettors seem to be selectively remembering that four-interception game by Purdy, and failing to acknowledge that he led the 49ers to a collective scoring advantage of 292-156 in the other eight games he has started during that stretch (an average score of 35.6 to 17.3).
Kyle Shanahan has now led the 49ers to two Super Bowl appearances in four years (San Fran lost to these Chiefs in Super Bowl 54 back in 2020), and he served as the offensive coordinator for the Falcons in their last Super Bowl run. Purdy is a massive upgrade over 2020 Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo, and McCaffrey is unlike any weapon Shanny's offenses have ever enjoyed in the past.
When healthy, CMC might be the most lethal and all-around talented offensive player of the past 10 years. Stacking the box can be perilous, too, as Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle might be the most deadly trio of pass-catchers in football. And if that's not enough of an embarrassment of riches, San Fran also has All-Pro linebacker Warner, Pro Bowl cornerback Charvarius Ward, and Pro Bowl pass-rushers Nick Bosa and Javon Hargrave. Have mercy.
The sportsbooks are rooting for the 49ers, as our friends at BetMGM informed us that 79 percent of moneyline bets and 70 percent of the ATS handle have gone the way of Kansas City. Could the Niners be the latest NFL squad to completely slaughter the majority of the NFL betting masses on Super Bowl Sunday? We wouldn't be surprised in the slightest.
Super Bowl best bets with 49ers win prediction
Betting advice: If you're backing the favorites, bet the 49ers -2 (-110) or go even safer and wager the Niners' moneyline with very little juice at -130. We would also recommend the UNDER on the projected total of 47.5, and not just because 63 percent of Super Bowl tickets are on the OVER. San Francisco has allowed an average of 16 points per game in victories, as Niners' wins are often paired with time of possession domination, a positive turnover ratio, and elite production from McCaffrey.
CMC has racked up 19 TDs across 14 wins since Week 1. Purdy's stats across those 14 wins: 30 TDs and three interceptions in 394 pass attempts. San Francisco has also turned opponents over 26 times in victories. For these reasons, those betting the 49ers to win might also want to consider wagering on McCaffrey to score multiple TDs (+225), Purdy UNDER 0.5 interceptions (+100), and Mahomes to throw OVER 0.5 interceptions (+100). It's a plus-odds wonderland!
