Drake Maye will start at quarterback for the New England Patriots sometime during his rookie season. It's only a matter of when the team needs to begin playing the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 draft and replace bridge QB Jacoby Brissett.
The Patriots are 1-1 after two games, upsetting the Bengals on the road but falling to the Seahawks at home. However, from Weeks 3-6, they likely will fall hard out of any kind of AFC playoff contention with consecutive matchups against the Jets, 49ers, Dolphins, and Texans.
Knowing Brissett has been one of the league's worst QBs so far, it would behoove the Patriots to get an early look at the future sooner rather than later. Here's breaking down when Maye should see his first regular-season action.
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Why the Patriots should not wait until 2025 to play Drake Maye
The Patriots started 2021 No. 15 overall pick Mac Jones right away as a rookie. Jones played well enough to get a Pro Bowl nod and had promise for 2022, only to fall apart without offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Jones was benched for Bailey Zappe last season and was traded to become the Jaguars' top backup to Trevor Lawrence this offseason.
Even though the Patriots have different coaching leadership in Jerod Mayo and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, it was natural for them to be more careful and calculated with their latest first-round QB. Jones was ready to play right away, while Maye, with his great combination of arm and athleticism, was deemed to need a little more development.
The Patriots, despite going 4-13 in the final season of Bill Belichick's coaching career in 2023 and having low win-total expectations this season, went into the season with the mindset that with their running game and defense, Brissett playing caretaker for a limited passing game was their best chance to win games early in the Mayo era.
For now, that seems like the right call, but Brissett has been even more inefficient than expected. His poor QB play after rating only 79.7 as a passer through Week 2 is bound to continue in upcoming tougher defensive matchups.
Another theory about the Patriots playing Brissett over Maye right away is having full awareness of their supporting offensive issues and not wanting Maye to take so many major lumps early. But after Brisssett gets beat up a bit without the QB play improving, the redshirt evaluation mode for Maye is set to be accelerated from early 2025 to mid-2024.
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When is the best time for the Patriots to start Drake Maye in 2024?
The Patriots will try to extend starting Brissett as long as possible. That will happen as long as they are able to win enough with Brissett using their conservative formula. However, once Brissett has borne the brunt of some tough defenses on the slate and the Patriots profile as a bad, sub.-500 team, turning the page to Maye will be the only thing that makes sense.
The Patriots make their only prime-time appearance in Week 2 vs. the Jets. Unfortunately, it's a road game. After the mini-bye, they travel to San Francisco to face the reigning NFC champions. Their actual bye doesn't come until Week 14, followed by facing the Cardinals on the road in Week 15.
After the Jets and 49ers, the Patriots are listed as having four consecutive road games. The first two, however, come against the pass defenses of Houston and Miami. The third is a neutral-site game vs. Jacksonville, but it would be difficult to see Maye making his debut in London. Then it's the Jets in New England before facing the relatively tough Titans' and Bears' pass defenses back-to-back on the road.
The Patriots can't keep avoiding turning to Maye because there's no perfect preparation situation to get him most comfortable on the field. Week 11 at home vs. the shaky Rams' defense, however, seems like the most ideal time for Maye's first rookie start. That would followed by a road rematch with the Dolphins before coming back to play the questionable Colts' defense at home.
By Week 10's Bears game, the Patriots should have a strong idea they won't be making the playoffs. By turning to Maye in Week 11, they would also get three games of him starting for better evaluation during their Week 14 bye.
Should Brissett be a bigger liability soon and Maye's development accelerates, then Maye could be in there before midseason. Also, if Brissett gets hurt, Maye would start ahead of schedule as the top backup over fellow rookie Joe Milton III.
Jones started all 17 games as a rookie in 2021. In 2024, Maye is looking at starting at least half of the season in the end.
