As the 2018 NFL season rapidly approaches its halfway point, there are still a lot of teams dealing with identity crises. With big point totals being put up every week, everything has become wide open to the point where one or two plays decide most games.
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With that in mind, the only choice is to persevere with our pigskin prognostication and predictions.
Here is your fearless forecast for Week 7 — as usual, for entertainment purposes only. (Game lines courtesy of Bovada.)
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Week 7 NFL picks against the spread
(All times ET)
Game of the Midweek: Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Thursday 8:20 p.m., Fox
These are two of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so both teams would be smart to stay grounded for the most part. The Cardinals have not been able to get David Johnson totally rolling, but that will change against the Broncos. Denver will counter with plenty of Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay, but this game will come down to the QB who makes more mistakes. Surprisingly, that will be Case Keenum in a hostile road environment, not rookie Josh Rosen.
PICK: Cardinals win 20-17.
AFC Game of the Week: Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
Sunday 8:20 p.m., NBC
Patrick Mahomes has looked more human over the past two weeks, but he was not exactly humbled in New England. He will put up more big numbers without errors against the Bengals, who will have plenty of lapses in the back seven, something Kareem Hunt also will exploit in the running game. The Chiefs’ defense will overachieve as Andy Dalton faces too much prime-time hostility on the road.
PICK: Chiefs win 41-27 and cover the spread.
NFC Game of the Week: Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Panthers are 3-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. Cam Newton has been steady, but the defense seems to struggle away from Charlotte, especially against the run. Carolina also will have trouble covering the combination of Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery, as Carson Wentz is now looking like the 2017 version of himself. Both Philadelphia lines will win their battles, and the reining Super Bowl champs will keep rolling.
PICK: Eagles win 27-20 and cover the spread.
NFC-AFC Game of the Week: New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Sunday 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Saints tend to be a different team offensively when away from the Superdome. But in a battle of high-powered passing games played in the elements, New Orleans is better equipped to run the ball with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Ravens will get their share of big plays from Joe Flacco, but Drew Brees will make more of the little ones (including TD pass No. 500) in a more balanced attack.
PICK: Saints win 27-24.
Lock of the Week: Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) over Tennessee Titans in London
Sunday 9:30 a.m., CBS
The Chargers don't even get to play real home games in Los Angeles, so playing a game in London won’t faze them. It’s time to raise a pint to Melvin Gordon and Philip Rivers, the gin and tonic of their offense. The Titans, meanwhile, will be doing a lot more punting on the Thames. LA will rock the UK and remind everyone it’s an AFC title contender, and Tennessee will begin its fade.
PICK: Chargers win 31-20 and cover the spread.
Rest of the Week:
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts (TBD)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Bills probably will be without Josh Allen, the one player who makes their offense worth a peek. The Colts have fewer wins this season, but they are much better than their record indicates. Andrew Luck will let it rip against a tough Buffalo defense and get Indianapolis a home win for the first time in the Frank Reich era.
PICK: Colts win 23-13.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Buccaneers got a defensive wake-up call with the firing of coordinator Mike Smith, and they will be motivated to go after Baker Mayfield with more jobs on the line. Jameis Winston in his return last week picked up where he left off last season, and he will push the ball downfield against the Browns. Mayfield will duel the fellow Heisman winner, but the effort on the road won’t be good enough.
PICK: Buccaneers win 31-27 and cover the spread.
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (TBD)
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
Matt Patricia had to work on his run defense during the bye. Now look for him to apply what he learned in New England when it comes to beating Miami. He knows this is a tricky place to play and will keep in mind what happened to Chicago last week. Look for Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense to turn in a crisp, efficient performance as he out-duels (likely) Brock Osweiler and puts a quick end to "Brocktoberfest."
PICK: Lions win 26-20.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
The Jaguars play better at home, but without Leonard Fournette, they have become more dependent on Blake Bortles, and the pressure is getting to him. Likewise, though, Jacksonville will get after Deshaun Watson, who has been under siege this season behind the NFL's worst offensive line. There will be sacks and sloppiness galore in this game, but ultimately, the hosts will regain first place in the AFC South.
PICK: Jaguars win 30-20 and cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at New York Jets
Sunday 1 p.m., Fox
The Vikings’ offensive line will have its hands full against a tough Jets front, and Minnesota will revert to struggles in the running game. But Kirk Cousins will go to work with his quick passing game and have a much easier time than Sam Darnold will in a one-dimensional offense against a surging defense.
PICK: Vikings win 23-17 and cover the spread.
New England Patriots (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
Sunday 1 p.m., CBS
Tom Brady and the Patriots survived a shootout against the Chiefs last week, and they draw a similar, versatile Bears offense in Chicago. The Bears' defense will play better away from the Miami heat with Khalil Mack doing his best to keep the visitors in the cold. The difference will come late, when New England will be more committed to power running to ice the game after Brady puts them ahead in the fourth quarter.
PICK: Patriots win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1.5)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have found their groove together, as the offense is finally playing to the QB’s strengths. The Cowboys’ defense is starting to become nasty on every level and will get after the Redskins’ limited passing attack after slowing the run. Washington has played well at home, but Dallas is the better overall team. Prescott has never lost to his team's archrival, and he isn't about to start now.
PICK: Cowboys win 24-17.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (TBD)
Sunday 4:25 p.m., CBS
San Francisco turned in a solid defensive performance in Green Bay, but things will be different against a Rams team led by better offensive coaching. Todd Gurley will be slowed down a little as the 49ers' focus, but San Francisco's secondary can’t match up with LA’s versatile receivers.
PICK: Rams win 38-24.
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-6)
Monday 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Giants will stay in the game with plenty of Saquon Barkley, this time with more help from Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard. But Matt Ryan and the Falcons are extremely hard to beat in Atlanta. Of the reeling defenses, the home team's depleted unit will give the more inspired effort to make a few key stops. Get this: A rare Julio Jones TD late in the game will ruin the chance of a Giant upset.
PICK: Falcons win 35-26 and cover the spread.
Last week’s record straight up: 10-5
Last week’s record against the spread: 6-8
Season record straight up: 54-37
Season record against the spread: 37-52
