The experts at TeamRankings are back with advice for your NFL pick 'em contests and confidence pools. Find out which underdogs and favorites have the most value as TeamRankings break down five NFL Week 5 picks that deserve a second look.
In order to get an edge in your pick 'em pool, you can't ignore win odds (i.e. how much risk is involved with each potential pick) and pick popularity (i.e. how much you'll gain if you pick a winner). The risk/reward of your picks has to be appropriate for your pool every week. For more, see our article on NFL pick 'em pool strategy.
For those unfamiliar with TeamRankings.com, their Football Pick 'em Picks product is the only customizable one on the market for weekly pick recommendations for your specific NFL pick 'em pool. Last season, 81 percent of TeamRankings subscribers reported taking home a prize in a football pick ’em contest. TeamRankings also offers data-driven NFL survivor pool picks and NFL betting picks.
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Football Pool Strategy: Lessons from last week
Last week was yet another solid week for our value-driven pick advice. First, we cautioned against using the Bills as a big upset pick. Though Buffalo had pulled off a stunning upset against the Vikings in Week 3, the Bills quickly regressed to their expected poor form this season in getting shut out 22-0 by Green Bay.
Both of our highlighted value favorites also won: Dallas over Detroit (last-second win by Dallas) and Chicago over Tampa Bay (easy win for Chicago). Finally, on the upset pick front, our highlighted value gambles yielded a winner in Houston over Indianapolis, while Arizona nearly pulled it off against Seattle.
Overall it was a 4-1 week. Because we're mostly focusing on teams that are less popular picks than they should be, hitting the majority of these games will have an outsized positive impact on your performance in NFL pick 'em contests and confidence pools.
Week 5 Fantasy Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker
Expert Week 5 NFL Picks Advice: Pick 'em pools
As usual, we've picked out five games that stand out based on the win odds and pick popularity of the teams playing. Deciding which way you want to go on these games should be top of mind when you make your NFL Week 5 picks.
Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make all of these picks. The best picks for your specific pool depend on a number of different strategy factors, such as the number of entries; whether your pool uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product figures out the best pick strategy for you.
Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data quoted below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.
Big Favorites At A Reasonable Price
Los Angeles Rams (at Seattle)
With Seattle coming off back-to-back wins and returning to a home field considered to be one of the toughest for opposing teams, the Seahawks might look like good upset gamble at first blush. However, the public is already giving Seattle more support (13-percent pick popularity) than is typical for a seven-point underdog, so it's best not to follow the crowd here. We wouldn't recommend it in most cases, but if you really want to gamble on a big underdog in Week 5, both the Raiders and Giants have a better chance to win than Seattle and are also less popular picks, giving them better risk/reward profiles as upset plays. In season prize pools, though, you'll be better off not picking a big upset this week and instead just considering our highlighted value gamble (keep reading).
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona)
The 49ers are 4.5-point home favorites this week against the Cardinals. While San Francisco's pick popularity (72 percent) is actually slightly higher than its win odds (in the mid-60-percent range according to Vegas and our models), this week's slate is largely devoid of underrated favorites. So, in weeks like these, you need to take more of a relative view of things. Out of the several Week 5 games in which one team is favored by between three and 6.5 points, San Francisco is the closest to being fairly valued. Again, a team like Oakland (against the Chargers) has a very similar chance to win as Arizona does this week -- slightly better, actually, according to our models -- and the Raiders will give you a bigger boost against your opponents if they pull it off.
Fairly Valued Favorite
Pittsburgh (vs. Atlanta)
The Steelers are a three-point favorite at home, and their win odds of around 60 percent are slightly higher than their pick popularity (56 percent). As a result, picking Pittsburgh lets you not only side with the more likely winner of this game, but it also provides a sliver of value as a bonus. With the Steelers coming off a 12-point loss to divisional rival Baltimore, the public is likely displaying some irrational bias against Pittsburgh here, although it's admittedly minimal. Still, there are several teams with much better upset pick profiles than Atlanta this week, so it's not even worth considering the Falcons as a potential upset play.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Intro to data-driven NFL picks
Unpopular Toss-up Pick
New York Jets (vs. Denver)
Denver is coming off a four-point Monday night defeat to an undefeated Chiefs team, and the public probably interpreted that loss as a great showing for Denver -- despite the fact that the Broncos were only 3.5-point underdogs going in. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off three straight losses, including being the first team to lose to the Cleveland Browns since 2016. Add it all up, and the Jets are only attracting a paltry 18 percent of the public's picks this week. But here's the rub: The Jets are actually slight favorites to win this game, according to both Vegas and our models. On a short week of rest for Denver, the value offered by New York is big and picking the Jets gives you at least a 50/50 shot to gain ground on 82 percent of your opponents. If your pool's picking trends reflect national averages, it’s a no-brainer to go with the Jets in nearly all types of pick ’em pools.
Value Gamble
Detroit Lions (vs. Green Bay)
Detroit has a similar profile as the Jets this week, with the exception that the Lions are a one-point underdog instead of a one-point favorite, which adds risk. After watching the underdog Lions smash the Patriots in Week 3, the public saw Detroit return to earth with a loss at Dallas last week, while the Packers shut out Buffalo 22-0. Unsurprisingly, Green Bay is a very popular pick this week, at 80-percent pick popularity -- a number that far overrates the chances of only a very slight Vegas favorite like the Packers. From a risk/reward standpoint, Detroit isn't quite as good a pick as the Jets, and it still may be too risky for most season prize pools. However, if you want to increase your odds to win a weekly prize, picking Detroit is almost certainly worth the risk.
Which Of These Five Picks Should You Make?
Maybe all, maybe just some. We're not dodging the question -- the reality is that it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer.
We built our Football Pool Picks to do all the number crunching for you and figure out when it makes the most sense for you to go with the favorite vs. the underdog. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it customizes weekly pick recommendations to give you the biggest edge.
Here's how it works. First, we use data from national pick 'em contests to estimate pick popularity for every team. Then, we compare a team's pick popularity to its win odds (or point-spread cover odds, if you're in a point-spread pool) to determine if it's being underrated or overrated by the public. Finally, we use algorithms to identify the exact set of picks each week that offers the best risk vs. reward profile for your pool's size and rules.
The result? In our postseason survey last year, 81 percent of our subscribers reported winning a weekly or a season prize in a football pick 'em contest. We invite you to give it a try for your Week 5 NFL picks.
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And don't forget about our NFL Survivor Picks and NFL Betting Picks, too.