The experts at TeamRankings are back with five NFL Week 3 picks that you need to think twice about if you're hoping to take down your NFL pick ’em contest or confidence pool.
Remember: To get the biggest edge in your NFL pick 'em pool, you must evaluate win odds (i.e. how risky each possible pick is), as well as pick popularity (i.e. how much you'll gain if you pick a winner). Then, you need to make sure the risk profile of your weekly picks is appropriate for your pool. For a quick primer, see our post on NFL pick 'em pool strategy.
This analysis is provided by TeamRankings.com, whose Football Pick 'em Picks is the only product on the market that customizes weekly pick recommendations for your NFL pick 'em pool. Last season, 81 percent of TeamRankings subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick ’em contest. They also offer data-driven NFL survivor pool picks and NFL betting picks.
For a limited time, Sporting News readers can get a free 3-Day All-Access subscription to TeamRankings. The free trial includes all NFL game predictions and picks, plus customized picks for your NFL pick 'em contests and survivor pools.
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Football Pool Strategy: Lessons from last week
Overall, it was another strong week for our value pick advice for NFL pools. If you've been following the tips in our articles for Week 1 and Week 2, you've likely gotten a nice early jump on your opponents in your pool standings. We've already received emails from subscribers who won weekly prizes in their NFL pick 'em contests after Chicago beat Seattle on Monday night.
Here's a quick recap of pick advice we said you should consider last week:
- Don't be tempted to pick Arizona as an upset. Sure, the Rams were technically "overvalued" as such huge favorites, but other big upset pick options offered less risk for a better potential reward.
- Pittsburgh over Kansas City. The only value pick that missed last week, thanks in part to an all-world game from Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (6 TDs, 0 INTs).
- Chicago over Seattle. The public was underestimating the Bears, especially after their overperformance in Green Bay in Week 1.
- Cincinnati over Baltimore. This game was very close to a 50/50 proposition, but the public was all over the Ravens after their huge Week 1 win over hapless Buffalo.
- Best riskier upset pick: Tampa Bay over Philadelphia. While too risky of a pick for most season prize pools, the Bucs were a fantastic value play for weekly prize pools.
Week 3 Fantasy Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker
Expert Week 3 NFL Picks Advice: Pick 'em pools
This week's analysis of win odds and pick popularity yields five picks of particular interest for NFL picks contests and confidence pools. Deciding which way you want to go on the five games below should be top of mind when you make your NFL Week 3 picks.
Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make every single one of these picks. The best picks for your specific pool depend on a number of different strategy factors, such as the number of entries in your pool; whether it uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both.
Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product updates multiple times daily with the latest information.
Big Favorite At A Reasonable Price
Minnesota (vs. Buffalo)
Huge upsets can and do happen, and who knows, maybe the Bills will have the game of their season and pull this one off. However, as a pick 'em player, any consideration of making a big upset pick has to be weighed against the probability that it will actually happen. The Vikings are 17-point favorites in this game, an incredibly rare case in the NFL, which objectively gives Buffalo about a one-in-10 chance to pull off a stunner. That's definitely a better chance than the public is giving the Bills, with 98 percent of pick 'em entries currently on Minnesota. Still, it's not worth the risk compared to several other options on the board this week (see Value Gambles below).
Fairly Valued Favorite
Miami (vs. Oakland)
After the Dolphins opened the season with two upset victories, one would think that more of the public would be jumping on the Miami bandwagon. So far, that doesn't seem to be the case. After opening as 3.5-point favorites against the Raiders, the Fins have slipped to -3, crossing a "key" number, so it's definitely worth watching how the betting line moves for this game as your weekly pick deadline gets closer. Still, as field-goal favorites, Miami would have around 60-percent win odds, and less than 60 percent of the public is picking them in the early going. With a profile like that, picking Oakland as an upset gambit doesn't make sense compared to other options.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Week 3 Survivor Pool picks | Intro to data-driven NFL picks
Less Popular Toss-Up Pick
Pittsburgh (at Tampa Bay)
It's sounds tough to side with a winless team...with some drama going on...on the road...on Monday night...against the surprise 2-0 team of the 2018 season, and after opening as field-goal favorites, the Steelers have slid down to being just one-point favorites in this game. Still, there's a decent amount of circumstantial evidence that the public is at least slightly overrating the Bucs. Pittsburgh, a team expected to be very good this year, was victimized by an unlikely six turnovers in Week 1 and then an unlikely six TDs from Patrick Mahomes in Week 2. Tampa Bay, a team not expected to be very good, has beaten a Saints team that looks shakier than expected and a banged-up Eagles squad. Don't forget that the Bucs were only three-point underdogs against Philly. This game looks like it's close to a coin flip, but the public likes Tampa Bay. That's almost always a good opportunity to go the other way.
Value Gambles
Washington (vs. Green Bay)
As three-point home underdogs, the Redskins are indeed a risky play with around 40-percent win odds. However, nearly 90 percent of the public is on the Packers in this game, a popularity rate that is more typical for six- or seven-point favorites. It's certainly worth watching the news on QB Aaron Rodgers' health as your pick deadline approaches (or just watch the betting line, which should reflect any relevant public information). But if these numbers hold, Washington at the very least looks like a great value play for weekly prize pools, and if you're dead set on making a big upset pick this week, this one is appears to be your smartest bet from a risk/reward standpoint.
San Francisco (at Kansas City)
Red-hot Kansas City and their looking-like-a-stud QB are probably going to win this game. They are 6.5-point favorites, having about 70-percent win odds. However, the Chiefs are being significantly overrated by the public on the heels of their impressive start. Nearly 95 percent of pick 'em players have the Chiefs in this one, which means KC is only slightly less popular of a pick than Minnesota, which is a 17-point favorite. Furthermore, fading the 2-0 team whose QB just tossed six touchdowns is exactly what being contrarian is all about. This pick is definitely not advised for most pools that only offer end-of-season prizes, but if you want to maximize your odds to win a weekly prize, San Francisco would give you a huge boost if it pulls off the upset.
Which Of These Five Picks Should You Make?
Maybe all of them, maybe most of them. We're not dodging the question -- the reality is, it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer.
We built our Football Pick 'em Contest Picks to do all this number crunching for you. You answer a few quick questions about your pool, and it customizes weekly pick recommendations to give you the biggest edge. We use data from national pick 'em contests to estimate pick popularity for every team. We compare a team's pick popularity to its win odds (or point spread cover odds, if you're in a point spread pool) to determine if it's being underrated or overrated by the public. Finally, we use algorithms to identify the exact set of picks each week that offers the best risk vs. reward profile for your pool.
The result? In our postseason survey last year, 81 percent of our subscribers reported winning a weekly or a season prize in a football pick 'em contest. We invite you to give it a try for free during Week 3.
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And don't forget about our Survivor Pool Picks and NFL Betting Picks, too.