Need help with your Week 13 NFL picks? TeamRankings' experts are here for you with data-driven strategy tips that can help you win big in your pick 'em pools. Below, we'll break down five games worth a second look. For additional advice and a quick introduction on how our value-based method can help you win weekly and yearly prizes, check out our article on NFL pick ’em pool strategy.
TeamRankings.com remains the only site that customizes pick recommendations based on your specific pool. Last year, 81 percent of TR subscribers won a prize in football pick ’em contests. So far this season, TeamRankings subscribers have already reported winning over 1,200 weekly pool prizes. For pick recommendations for your pools, check out our NFL Pick 'em Pool Picks. TeamRankings also provides data-driven NFL survivor pool picks and NFL betting picks.
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Week 13 Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker
Expert Week 13 NFL Picks Advice: Pick 'em pools
Below, we'll go over five Week 13 games that stand out because of a team's pick popularity and win odds. Sometimes winning a week or even a season can come down to a handful of key games in any given week, and the games listed below could very well be difference-makers.
We're not saying you should definitely make all five of these picks. The ideal picks for your specific pool depend on several different variables, including the size of your pool; whether your pool uses confidence points; and whether there are season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product helps figure out the best strategy for you.
Reminder: The win odds and pick popularity data below is subject to change between now and kickoff. For the latest numbers, our pick 'em product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.
Favorites At A Reasonable Price
Kansas City Chiefs (at Oakland)
Kansas City is coming off a bye week after a Week 11 shootout loss to the Rams, and it's a 15.5-point road favorites at Oakland. At 9-2, the Chiefs have a narrow lead in the race for top seed in the AFC and home-field advantage for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Raiders are one of the weakest teams in football and are also tied with the 49ers and Cardinals for the worst record. The Vegas-implied win odds for the Chiefs are nearly 90 percent, so even with over 95 percent of the public picking the Chiefs, other underdogs offering a more favorable risk/reward profile than Oakland.
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. LA Chargers)
The Steelers are 3.5-point favorites at home against the Chargers this week. This contest features two teams in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC. Pittsburgh is coming off a Week 12 loss against Denver where it turned the ball over four times. That came after a narrow Week 11 win against Jacksonville in which Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger was intercepted three times. So, it’s not surprising that the public may be a bit wary of picking the Steelers against a good Chargers team. However, with the Vegas-implied win odds for the Steelers at 62 percent and their nationwide pick popularity around 65 percent, Pittsburgh looks fairly valued. If you're looking for an upset pick in this risk range, Carolina is a better target (keep reading).
Denver Broncos (at Cincinnati)
Denver is a 4.5-point favorite on the road against Cincinnati this week. Despite identical 5-6 records, these two teams have been headed in different directions after their respective bye weeks. The Bengals have dropped three in a row after their Week 9 bye, and last week’s loss to cross-state rival Cleveland was particularly ugly, as Cincinnati spotted Cleveland a 28-0 lead. The Broncos, on the other hand, have beaten two likely playoff teams in the past two weeks, the Chargers and Steelers. The betting markets have Denver’s win odds at 67 percent, and with nationwide pick popularity of only 72 percent, you would still gain ground on a decent percentage of your pool if Denver wins.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Intro to data-driven NFL picks
Unpopular Toss-up Pick
Baltimore Ravens (at Atlanta)
The Ravens are a one-point underdog on the road against the Falcons this week. Lamar Jackson is expected to be the Week 13 starter at quarterback for Baltimore, as the Ravens look to continue their winning streak. While the Ravens are considered a slight underdog by the betting markets, our models have them as a very slight favorite in the game. However, the majority of the public is favoring Atlanta in pick ’em pools nationwide, and Baltimore (at around 43-percent pick popularity) has value on its side. Our power rankings rate Baltimore as considerably stronger than the the typical 6-5 team, so especially in weekly prize pools, it looks like a good option.
Value Gamble
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs Carolina)
Later in the season, it can be tough to find highly underrated teams, and picking one often involves taking a significant risk. While the Buccaneers have lost seven of their last nine games, they are 3.5-point underdogs against Carolina, with Vegas-implied win odds of over 38 percent and nationwide pick popularity of 21 percent. Given that disparity, the Bucs could be an upset pick worth considering in pools with weekly prize payouts, which often reward more risk-taking when making your picks. However, the risk/reward for Tampa Bay as an upset pick this week isn’t as favorable as some other upset picks in previous weeks were, so the Panthers still look like the better pick in season prize pools,unless you're way behind in the standings and need to take some big gambles to try to catch up.
Which Of These Five Picks Should You Make in Week 13?
One, two, three, four, five...it's really up to you. We're not evading the question, but it takes a lot of math and data to get to the right answer.
We built our Football Pool Picks to handle the math and figure out the data for you based on your specific pool. Just answer some quick questions about your setup (type of pool, number of entrants, weekly vs. yearly prizes, etc.), and our picks product will customize Week 13 recommendations to give you the biggest advantage..
If you're in an NFL survivor pool or planning on betting NFL Week 13, check out our NFL survivor pool picks and NFL betting picks.