TeamRankings' team of number-crunching experts are here to help with your Week 11 NFL picks. Get an advantage in your pick 'em pools with our data-driven approach, which has helped TeamRankings subscribers dominate football football pools over the past several seasons. For more advice and a rundown on how our value-based method can help you take home weekly and yearly prizes, check out our article on NFL pick ’em pool strategy .
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Week 11 Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker
Expert Week 11 NFL Picks Advice: Pick 'em pools
This week, we'll break down five games that stand out based one team's pick popularity and win odds. Your decision on these games will be key when finalizing your NFL Week 11 picks.
Please note that we are not saying you should make every one of these picks. The best choices for your specific pool depend on multiple strategy factors, including the number of entries; whether it uses confidence points; and whether it offers season prizes, weekly prizes, or both. Our Football Pick 'em Picks product figures out the best pick strategy for you.
Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data quoted below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day with the latest information.
Value Favorites
Carolina Panthers (at Detroit)
The Panthers are 3.5-point favorites on the road against the Lions this week. After giving up 52 points in a blowout loss to Pittsburgh last week, it’s not surprising that the public is not too keen on picking Carolina. In both pick ’em and survivor pools, people often have a recency bias where they overreact to the most recent event. Despite their loss last week, Carolina (6-3) is still an above average team and Detroit (3-6) is a below-average team. With only 33 percent of the public's picks on Carolina, choosing the Panthers lets you both pick the favorite and get a lot of value from the nearly 36-percent difference between Carolina's win odds (69 percent) and their public popularity.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Jacksonville)
Coming off a big win last week, the Steelers are five-point favorites at the Jaguars in Week 11. With three other AFC teams (Chiefs, Chargers, and Patriots) all having more wins than the Steelers so far this season, the Steelers may be a little overlooked in the discussion about top AFC contenders. The Vegas line implies over 68-percent win odds for Pittsburgh, yet only 29 percent of the public is picking the Steelers. To look at this another way, Jacksonville isn't a great upset pick candidate this week because teams like Tennessee and Tampa Bay both have better win odds than Jacksonville and are being picked by a lower percentage of the public.
MORE TEAMRANKINGS: Intro to data-driven NFL picksHouston (at Washington)
The Texans, favored by 2.5 points over the Redskins, are another road favorite this week. Washington held Tampa Bay to three points last week, so recency bias may be boosting Washington’s pick popularity a bit this week. Both teams have 6-3 records, so a lot of pool players may just default to picking the home team if they don’t have a strong opinion about the game. But with Vegas-implied win odds of about 58 percent and a public pick percentage of only 25 percent, going with Houston allows you to pick both the favorite and the less popular team.
Chicago (vs. Minnesota)
Finally we get to a value favorite this week who is actually playing at home. The Bears, 2.5-point favorites against the Vikings, are another good choice this week. Chicago has scored over 30 points in three of its past four games, reminding us that this isn’t the same offensively challenged Chicago team that the public may be remembering from past years. Vegas has the Bears at 56-percent implied win odds, but only 47 percent of public picks are on the Bears. The public often displays some superstitions when it comes to divisional games, but objective data is what wins pools. Picking the Bears, lets you pick the team that’s more likely to win, while also getting some value from Chicago's plus-nine percent differential between win odds and pick popularity.
Value Gamble
Tennessee (at Indianapolis)
Tennessee is a two-point underdog on the road at Indianapolis, but it looks like a solid value gamble this week. It's surprising that the Titans’ pick popularity isn’t higher after their impressive victory over the Patriots last week, but who knows what the public could be thinking. Maybe they're discounting the win because Rob Gronkowski was out or because New England seems to have one or two games each season where they substantially underperform. Or maybe it was the “revenge factor” in play with Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler going against their former team Regardless, with Tennessee at over 45-percent win odds according to Vegas (and our models even slightly more optimistic on their winning chances), the Titans are worth strong consideration in weekly prize pools that reward more risk-taking. Only 22 percent of the public is picking Tennessee, so going with the Titans gives you a great potential opportunity to gain ground on your competitors if they pull off the upset.
Which Of These Five Picks Should You Make?
Maybe all, maybe three, maybe only one. We're not trying to avoid the question, but the truth is it takes a lot of math to get to the right answer.
We built our Football Pool Picks to do the number crunching for you and figure out when it makes the most sense to go with the favorite and when it makes sense to go with the underdog in your specific pool. Just answer a few quick questions about your setup (type of pool, number of people, weekly vs. yearly prizes, etc.), and our picks customize Week 11 recommendations to give you the biggest edge.
If you're in an NFL survivor pool or planning on betting NFL Week 11, check out our NFL survivor pool picks and NFL betting picks .