The 2019 NFL season is only a week away. That means it’s time to trade all those fake preseason results for games that matter.
Thank you for joining us again on this emotional, 21-week journey of 267 games through Super Bowl 54. We promise we will laugh, cry and try our best to win along the way.
2019 NFL PREDICTIONS:
Standings, playoff projections, Super Bowl pick
As that last line might have indicated, these spread picks should be used for responsible entertainment purposes only.
Let’s begin the fun of not losing too much money by picking every outcome in Week 1 and, as always, look for line and pick tweaks as we get closer to kickoff.
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Week 1 NFL picks against the spread
- Game of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6, o/u 51)
Sunday, Aug. 8, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
The Patriots will get their latest rings against their AFC rivals at home, which will inspire them to avoid any sort of hangover. The Steelers finally won this matchup in an ugly, low-scoring game (17-10) in December. With each team losing a familiar go-to receiver (Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski), the defenses should remain a little ahead of the offenses coming out of the gate. The Patriots will steal it from the Steelers on a late field goal as Tom Brady answers Ben Roethlisberger in the fourth quarter.
Patriots win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
- NFC Game of the Week: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7, o/u 45)
Sunday, Aug. 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The Cowboys still don’t know if they will have Ezekiel Elliott for the opener, so under that cloud of uncertainty and because these teams tend to play close games regardless of expectations, expect the Giants to make the hosts sweat a little. Dak Prescott will try to help his team pull away, but Saquon Barkley and New York’s other high-level offensive skill players will produce to keep it interesting around their QB play. Dallas will hold on late to win with some cushion, but not not by enough to cover.
Cowboys win 27-22 but fail to cover the spread.
- Upset of the Week: Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears (-3, o/u 46)
Thursday, Sept. 5, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC
The Packers started last season with their comeback win over their rivals only to miss the playoffs and see the Bears run away with the NFC North. Now Matt LaFleur will try to pull a Matt Nagy in his rookie season. Chicago’s defense remains strong, but Green Bay upgraded nicely on that side of the ball. Rodgers in a new scheme provides more confidence than Mitchell Trubisky in his second year of his. The Packers will set the tone for the division race in 2019.
Packers win 23-17.
- Lock of the Week: Kansas City Chiefs (-4, o/u 52) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Former Chief Nick Foles gives the Jaguars new credibility at QB, and there have been some positive vibes about their offense as a whole. That will need to convert into a lot of yards and points in a hurry, however, because the Chiefs will pick up where they left off with Patrick Mahomes in a comfortable road environment. The Chiefs’ new-look defense is underrated, and the Jaguars’ old-school defense is overrated.
Chiefs win 31-20 and cover the spread.
- Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4, o/u 47.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins will have renewed energy, as both offenses have upgraded their lines and have good running games to set up better downfield passing. This game comes down to which defense will be positioned to make the game-changing sacks or big plays off takeaways. Trust Minnesota’s star-studded, older group at home vs. Atlanta’s healthier-but-younger one on the road.
Vikings win 26-23 but fail to cover the spread.
- Baltimore Ravens (-5, o/u 37) at Miami Dolphins
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens aren’t favored by much because it’s hard to play in the Miami heat early in the season, and their vaunted defense will need to overcome some major personnel obstacles. But they are built to run all over the Dolphins’ front, and new safety Earl Thomas will be eager to victimize either Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Rosen. It’s also a homecoming of sorts for Lamar Jackson, who grew up not too far north of Hard Rock Stadium.
Ravens win 27-17 and cover the spread.
- Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3, o/u 39.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bills and Jets are in a close race to determine which team will be best positioned to be consistently second-best to the Patriots until Tom Brady retires. Josh Allen and Sam Darnold are close friends, but there’s a little separation for Darnold as the more polished QB product. As much as Buffalo upgraded for Allen, New York did more for Darnold by hiring Adam Gase and signing Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder and line help. As two aggressive defenses try to force passing mistakes, the host Jets will do better to avoid them.
Jets win 22-17 and cover the spread.
- Los Angeles Rams (-3, o/u 50.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Now that Cam Newton is playing in this game, the Panthers will hope to be full systems go with their speedy offense. Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel are nice, but the visitors bring Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks to do more than counter. This might seem like a trap game that could set up the Rams for struggles, but coach Sean McVay will have his road-tested team prepared to exploit many good matchups, and defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will bring the heat to Newton.
Rams win 34-24 and cover the spread.
- Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5, o/u 45.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The offseason vibes for these teams are going in opposite directions, especially offensively. Marcus Mariota seems to be on his last legs as the Titans’ franchise QB, while Baker Mayfield is just getting warmed up as the Browns’ long-awaited answer. Odell Beckham Jr. will have his new teammates ready to start living up to the hype, but Myles Garrett will steal the show by getting through the Taylor Lewan-less line.
Browns win 24-13 and cover the spread.
- Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, o/u 45.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Redskins are rolling with Case Keenum over rookie Dwayne Haskins, and this is a tough early assignment for the veteran. Washington will do its best to run with Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson to take pressure off Keenum, but the Eagles’ pass rush will get to him once it’s done stuffing the rushing attack. He will be forced to drop back into trouble, and a healthy Carson Wentz will light up the scoreboard behind a healthy line and with remixed weapons.
Eagles win 27-10 and cover the spread.
- Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, o/u 43.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Zac Taylor era will get off to a rough start on a long road trip that no rebuilding team wants to start a season. The Bengals don’t have enough to throw off the Seahawks’ run-heavy, ball control-oriented game plan, which also will have room for shot plays from Russell Wilson to Tyler Lockett. The pumped-up crowd will inflate Seattle’s depleted defense, at least for one week.
Seahawks win 30-17 and cover the spread.
- Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, o/u 44)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts where underdogs with Andrew Luck’s status up in the air, and now that he’s retired, it’s justifiable to make the host Chargers comfortable favorites in a battle of the two 2018 AFC wild-card teams. Although LA is fine without Melvin Gordon, overcoming Derwin James’ loss for the defense will be a lot more difficult. It’s easier to trust Philip Rivers over Jacoby Brissett in this all-N.C. State QB duel, but the latter has plenty of weapons to support him. Rivers will require a last-gasp drive to save the day.
Chargers win 24-23 but fail to cover the spread.
- Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, o/u 47.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX
The Lions are trying to shake the memory of their 48-17 loss to the Jets in Matt Patricia’s first game last year. The Cardinals are trying to shake up the league with their fast and furious, pass-oriented offense under Kilff Kingsbury. The Lions’ defense doesn't know what it’s about to face against the dynamic Kyler Murray. The Cardinals will give up some big pass plays, too, but Detroit coming out a little lost and conservative on the road will cost the team.
Cardinals win 26-23 and cover the spread.
- San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, o/u 49.5)
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Jimmy Garoppolo and Jameis Winston are facing different kinds of career crossroads. While the 49ers have given a healthy Jimmy G everything he needs to break out and earn his big-money deal under Kyle Shananan, the Bucs have done the same for Winston, hoping he’ll finally be worthy of the next big QB contract under Bruce Arians. It’s a long Bay-to-Bay trip for the Niners, but they have both the more balanced offense and the more improved defense to make it a happy flight back home.
49ers win 27-24.
- Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7, o/u 53)
Monday, Sept. 9, 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Saints struggled at home to open last season, and their Super Bowl run ended at the Superdome on a controversial note. They have managed to become a more complete team to start the process all over again. Their fans will be loud, and their pass rush will be itching to tee off on Deshaun Watson behind a still-shaky line with less traditional running support. Drew Brees will stay upright and maximize his skill players all over the field, all game long. Watson can’t keep up.
Saints win 30-20 and cover the spread.
- Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-1, o/u 43)
Monday, Sept. 9, 10:20 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Raiders have had a lot of positive and negative attention come their way, tied much to Jon Gruden changing so much after one year and Antonio Brown being the central figure of those changes. There’s no question they will be an offensive factor with Derek Carr trending upward, while the Broncos are in bit of a purgatory with a new scheme and Joe Flacco. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb will do their best to rattle Carr, but Oakland will grind out enough key plays to win a field-goal fest.
Raiders win 23-19 and cover the spread.
