Finding the right places to pivot off high-owned picks will help you leapfrog the pack in Week 1 NFL DFS tournaments and GPPs.
Each NFL season we partner with UFCollective to utilize their actuarial-base projections to cross-reference with themes and trends affecting DraftKings ownership to make SN's calls. We'll speculate on how the masses will likely attack their lineup on DraftKings.
Now, let's dissect the Week 1 main slate.
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Week 1 Rankings:
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | D/ST | Kicker
NFL Week 1 DFS Ownership: Quarterback
The Saints boast the week's highest implied point total, and Drew Brees ($6,800) likely hits double-digit ownership. Brees in the Superdome against a D that has struggled — at sub-$7K — could very well pace QB ownership.
Alex Smith ($5,600) comes off a career year and will still likely go ignored in Week 1 due to his parting with Andy Reid. Washington's pass O has produced at a high level under Jay Gruden, yet don't be surprised to see the DFS community take a wait-and-see approach with this new marriage.
WEEK 1 GPP LINEUPS: Yahoo | FanDuel | DraftKings
NFL Week 1 DFS Ownership: Running Back
Rex Burkhead ($4,200) would be my pick for highest-owned player of Week 1, and UFCollective projects him just behind Alvin Kamara ($8,500) to lead the position in percent rostered at DraftKings. The Kamara-Burkhead 1-2 will be rampant, more so with each reassuring news on Burkhead's knee.
The people will be getting a piece of the New England backfield, and James White ($4,000) seems like a popular enough pivot to go medium-owned. That is unless some late news breaks about Sony Michel ($5,100) getting more in the mix. In lieu of that, the rookie back becomes a contrarian if he's even active.
WEEK 1 CASH LINEUPS: Yahoo | FanDuel | DraftKings
NFL Week 1 DFS Ownership: Wide Receiver
Reports of extreme wind and rain in Cleveland should limit the ownership on Antonio Brown ($8,600) enough for Keenan Allen ($7,500), currently No. 2 on UFCollective, to surpass Brown as the leader by Sunday. Marqise Lee's injury could cause Keelan Cole ($3,800) to be a popular basement-price swing.
T.Y. Hilton ($6,800) could fly below the radar if the DK crowd takes a wait-and-see strategy with Capt. Luck. An interesting opportunity for a sub-$7K receiver who led the league in receiving last time Luck was healthy. Everyone will be off Corey Davis ($5,600) after a small but ugly preseason sample.
MORE WEEK 1 DFS: Values | Stacks | DFS lineup builder
NFL Week 1 DFS Ownership: Tight End
Betting on Rob Gronkowski ($6,900) to go way higher owned than the cheaper Travis Kelce ($6,400), as KC's change in quarterback likely keeps people away in Week 1. Then that of course swings the other direction Week 2 if they produce out the gate. You can get a mildly contrarian stack if you really buy in on Pat Mahomes.
Tyler Eifert ($3,400) and Delanie Walker ($4,900) both boast high upside at lower prices — and what should be far lower ownership than Gronk. Coming off injury-riddled seasons, the two have established histories with their quarterbacks as favored red-zone options.