Week 3 in the USFL provided us with a ton of scoring and big plays as the league continues to build off its momentum from last year. The Breakers are the lone undefeated team, as they took down the defending USFL champion Stallions, 45-31, at Protective Stadium. New Orleans will look to win its fourth-straight game on Sunday against the Generals. We also saw the Maulers pick up their first win in Week 3 as they dominated the Stars, 21-13, at Ford Field.
From a betting standpoint, the underdogs ruled Week 3 as they went a perfect 4-0 against the spread but 3-1 straight up on the moneyline. The Showboats (+170) were the only 'dog that didn't win last week as they came back from a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter but lost by 4 to the Gamblers.
Week 4 begins with a doubleheader on Saturday starting at 1 p.m. ET between the Gamblers and Stars on FOX. After that, the Showboats will try to pick up their first win of the season on the road against the Panthers at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC). Finally, on Sunday, the Breakers will go on the road to play the Generals at 3:30 p.m. ET (NBC), followed by the Stallions taking on the upstart Maulers at 6:30 p.m. ET (FS1) to wrap up Week 4 in the USFL.
Below, we'll break down the best Week 4 bets and give out our predictions on how things could shake out in the USFL.
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USFL Week 4 picks, predictions
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
Houston Gamblers at Philadelphia Stars
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX
- Spread: Stars -2.5
- Moneyline: Gamblers +120, Stars -145
- Over/Under: 46.5
The Stars are reeling as they've lost two-straight games after defeating the Showboats to open up the regular season. Philadelphia got punched in its mouth last weekend by Pittsburgh, who forced QB Case Cookus into two interceptions and sacked him three times. The pass protection and lack of an effective ground game have been significant issues for the Stars, and if they don't get it corrected quickly, they could be on upset alert this weekend.
As for the Gamblers, they didn't make things easy for themselves last week against the Showboats. QB Kenji Bahar played better, completing 22-of-36 passes for 235 yards and two touchdowns. However, he threw an interception to end the first half, which thankfully did not come back to haunt Houston. The Gamblers blew a 13-point lead, but Bahar led a game-winning drive that saw WR Justin Hall score the game-winning TD late in the fourth quarter.
Houston needs Bahar to play a clean game against the Stars' defense, which has four takeaways but is -3 in turnover differential. The Stars also allow the third-most rushing yards per game in the USFL (125.3), which is excellent news for RB Mark Thompson, who rushed for 84 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries last week. However, we believe the Stars will get RB Matt Colburn II involved more in the offense, which will help open up their dynamic passing game. Take Philadelphia and the points to start Week 4.
Pick: Stars 27 (-2.5), Gamblers 21
Memphis Showboats at Michigan Panthers
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
- Spread: Panthers -6.5
- Moneyline: Showboats +200, Panthers -250
- Over/Under: 45
After getting destroyed by Birmingham in Week 2, the Showboats had a better showing in Week 3, despite the result. Memphis started Cole Kelley instead of Brady White, who looked good under center and did a nice job pushing the ball down the field. The former FCS standout QB completed 21-of-38 passes for 307 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.
Even though Kelley's completion percentage wasn't great (55.3) last week, he deserves to start this weekend against Michigan. The Panthers are licking their wounds after allowing the Generals to score 28 points and run for 198 yards. Michigan's offense couldn't get on track as Josh Love completed 15-of-31 passes for 101 yards and an interception. Love will hopefully improve this week against the Showboats' defense, which has allowed the second-most passing yards per game this season (235.3). Nevertheless, Michigan should get back into the win column this weekend as they pound the rock with Reggie Corbin and Stevie Scott III. Finally, the Panthers' d-line will get after Kelley or whoever is under center.
Pick: Panthers 27 (-6.5), Showboats 17
New Orleans Breakers at New Jersey Generals
Sunday, 3:00 p.m. ET, NBC
- Spread: Breakers -2.5
- Moneyline: Breakers -150, Generals +125
- Over/Under: 44.5
Could we see a letdown from the Breakers this weekend after defeating the Stallions in Week 3? It's possible, as their offense has been putting up over the past few weeks, thanks to the trio of McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Wes Hills, and Sage Surratt. However, their defense is giving up its share of points, which is not good either,r as you can't win every game in a shootout.
We don't think Sunday's contest will be high-scoring as this Generals' defense is one of the best in the USFL. Through three weeks, New Jersey is allowing the fewest points in the league (14.3 points per game) and the second-fewest passing yards (155.7). Meanwhile, the Breakers' defense allows the second-fewest rushing yards per game (75.7), but they haven't seen a running back like Darius Victor.
This will be a great matchup of two different schools of thought on both sides of the ball. Therefore, it wouldn't be a surprise to see this game come down to the wire, with the Generals making the necessary plays at the end to get the win.
Pick: Generals 24 (+2.5), Breakers 20
Birmingham Stallions at Pittsburgh Maulers
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, FS1
- Spread: Stallions -8.5
- Moneyline: Stallions -350, Maulers +260
- Over/Under: 43.5
In the final game of Week 4, the Stallions will go on the road to take on the Maulers in Canton, OH, after their first win last week against the Stars. Pittsburgh played outstanding defense as they recorded three turnovers and held the Stars to 0/2 in the red zone. Offensively, the Maulers only scored one touchdown as kicker Chris Blewitt knocked through five field goals. However, QB Troy Wiliams made the timely plays for Maulers and had 161 total yards of offense.
Birmingham knows it will have a battle on its hands as the Maulers' front seven will try to get after QB Alex McGough, who was under constant pressure last week but still managed to throw for 238 yards, two TDs, and an interception. While the Maulers winning in Week 3 was a great story, we expect the Stallions to come angry after their first loss and beat Pittsburgh by double-digits. Pittsburgh needs more production from their offense, which we don't see happening against this Birmingham defense.
Pick: Stallions 30 (-8.5), Maulers 13
