It's not always the best practice in sports betting to wager on big-time stars. The top linemakers from the major sportsbooks earn their money by setting player prop projections that will lure casual bettors into hasty OVER bets on their favorite players. And, most of the time, it works.
If you're looking for some under-the-radar value — and the best bets for the game's two biggest players — you came to the right place. Here are six player prop bets from this weekend's Chiefs-Bills divisional-round playoff game that will give you the advantage over the sportsbooks this weekend.
Let's get right into the six best bets for Chiefs-Bills in the NFL Playoffs on Sunday night. Good luck, have fun, and here's hoping your bankroll sees a big boost!
MORE CHIEFS-BILLS: Model projections | Tracking line movement | ATS picks for Divisional Round
Best Chiefs vs. Bills player props bets
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada's most trusted sportsbook. Bet on this weekend's NFL games now!
Patrick Mahomes passing yards: OVER 261.5 (-115)
Mahomes hit this number just six times in Kansas City's first 12 games this season, but he has hit it three times in the five games since. That includes the Chiefs-Bills regular season game last month, when the reigning MVP and Super Bowl MVP threw for 271 yards.
Had Kadarius Toney not lined up offsides on what would have been the game-winning touchdown, Mahomes would have finished with 321 yards — and that still doesn't account for multiple drops.
But the most promising stat to support the OVER here: Mahomes threw for OVER 261.5 yards in four of Kansas City's six road games this season, and he averaged 263.1 passing yards per away game during the campaign. He has averaged 289.7 YPG across his storied postseason career and 301.5 YPG lifetime against Buffalo.
Also of note? Bills star linebacker Terrel Bernard — who played 100% of the snaps in that Week 14 matchup and led the team with 143 tackles this season — was carted off the field in the wild card win over the Steelers and may not play.
When Kansas City needs a big performance, it's the two-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback who steps up and gets it done. This one isn't at Arrowhead Stadium, but we're still smashing this OVER like an air tomahawk.
Josh Allen interceptions: OVER 0.5 (-110)
I have Allen and the Bills prevailing over Mahomes and the Chiefs for the first time in the postseason, but that doesn't mean it will always be pretty. Allen threw a whopping 18 interceptions this season, second to only the Commanders' Sam Howell, and he made at least one big mistake in every close game.
Allen threw at least one pick in all 12 of Buffalo's games that were decided by seven points or fewer this season. All said, 16 of his 18 interceptions came from those one-score wins and losses. One such game was the Bills' three-point win over Kansas City on Dec. 10, in which he was lucky to only get picked off once.
MORE: How Josh Allen snapped out of his slump in the Wild Card
Allen is a hard-charging QB with a cannon for an arm, but he also tends to take unnecessary risks in the heat of battle. He also typically faces a ton of pocket pressure, as his average pocket time this season has been just under 2.3 seconds. That played a significant part in his 78 poor passes and 18 interceptions, and Chris Jones and company blitzing him should play a part in Allen throwing at least one pick this Sunday night.
Travis Kelce to score touchdown anytime (+125)
Kelce only finished the 2023 NFL season with five TDs, and he's currently riding a seven-game scoring drought. The man has the second-most postseason touchdowns in NFL history, so we simply can't imagine he will get held out of the end zone for an eighth consecutive game.
Kelce also has seven career TDs against the Bills (regular + postseason combined), so it's pretty obvious that Mahomes will be looking Killa Trav's way early and often. They connected on 7-of-10 Kelce targets last week. Dating back to 2020, the superstar tight end has scored in five of seven games in which he has seen double-digit targets. Smash it.
Dalton Kincaid receiving yards: OVER 40.5 (-120)
This seems like great value, considering Kincaid has 230 receiving yards over the past three games (76.6 per game). The rookie has obviously become one of the top targets in Allen's progressions, as he has proven himself as able to consistently get open (2.02 average target separation) and sure-handed once the ball arrives (80.2% catch rate, 2 total drops).
The Chiefs allowed opposing tight ends to average 44.6 yards per game this season, and five individual TEs surpassed this over/under projection along the way. With Gabe Davis battling injuries over the past few weeks, Kincaid has basically turned into the Bills' second wideout — and we don't envision him suddenly plummeting to under 41 yards for the first time since before Christmas.
Isiah Pacheco rushing + receiving yards: OVER 82.5 (-110)
Pacheco has emerged as one of the Chiefs' main offensive catalysts, consistently coming through with his burst, hard running, and elusiveness. His effectiveness has afforded him increased volume — he has touched the ball 25 times in each of Kansas City's past two games, a stark contrast from the 25 combined touches he saw in Weeks 1 and 2.
Pacheco will almost assuredly play a big role once again this weekend. The second-year back has averaged 97 scrimmage yards over his past six games, but he didn't get a chance to suit up when Kansas City faced Buffalo last month. Five of the Bills' six losses have been at least partially due to a running back going off for OVER 82 scrimmage yards — D'Andre Swift (84), Javonte Williams (110), Rhamondre Stevenson (85), Travis Etienne (184) and Breece Hall (147).
The Bills have allowed just 81.9 rushing yards per game to RBs this season (12th-fewest), but they notably allowed RBs to average 41.7 receiving yards (6th-most). And since Clyde Edwards-Helaire has averaged just six touches per game over his past three contests, we're not worried about CEH biting too much into Pacheco's workload. An 83-yard target seems very achievable.
Nick Bolton tackles + assists: OVER 9.5
When stud linebacker Nick Bolton returned from a wrist injury in mid-December, Andy Reid eased him back into action and his tackle numbers looked pedestrian (by his standards). Now that he's back to 100 percent, his counting stats have started jumping off the page again.
The third-year pro registered 10 tackles last week against Miami (5 solo, 5 assist) and a whopping 13 tackles in his previous game against Cincinnati on New Year's Eve (9 solo, 4 assist). It's also worth noting that Bolton rarely comes off the field — he played 100 percent of the Chiefs' defensive snaps in their Super Bowl run last year and 97 percent of snaps last week in Kansas City's 26-7 blowout of the Dolphins.
With Allen running a lot lately, the Bills utilizing the aforementioned Kincaid and Dawson Knox a ton over the middle, and running back James Cook enjoying the largest role he has seen in his two-year career, Bolton should have plenty of opportunities to shine again on Sunday night. Double-digit tackles seems like an easy mark to hit, hopefully putting the cherry on top of our player prop sundae.
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