The Titans' chances of pulling off a stunning upset against the Dolphins seemed dead in the water after a couple of key fourth-quarter turnovers.
The first came when Eric Garror inexplicably muffed a punt inside the 10-yard line to set up a go-ahead Dolphins touchdown from Raheem Mostert. The next came on the Titans' ensuing offensive snap when a pitch to Derrick Henry went awry and was recovered by the Dolphins at the 12-yard line.
Once again, Mostert punched it in. That gave the Dolphins a 27-13 lead with 3:08 left in regulation.
At that point, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Miami would win. After all, NFL teams leading by 14 points with under three minutes left in regulation had won 767 consecutive games dating back to 2016.
Instead, Will Levis and the Titans pulled off an improbable comeback. They mounted back-to-back touchdown drives that sandwiched a Dolphins three-and-out to earn the 28-27 victory.
MORE: Breaking down how the Dolphins lost to the Titans in Week 14
Tennessee's comeback was not only impressive, it was near-historic.
Titans-Dolphins win probability chart
According to the NFL's Next Gen Stats, the Titans had a win probability of just 0.4 percent after Mostert's second touchdown. That ranks as the second-lowest win probability logged by a team that came back to win during the Next Gen Stats era, which dates back to 2016.
One need only look at the Titans' win probability chart to see how much Levis, DeAndre Hopkins and the Titans defense were able to swing the game in its final three minutes.
According to the NGS win probability model, the @Titans' win probability was as low as 0.4% when they trailed the Dolphins 27-13 with 3:08 left in regulation.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 12, 2023
The win goes down as the 2nd-most statistically improbable comeback in the NGS era.#TENvsMIA | #Titans pic.twitter.com/03vii31XK1
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Most improbable NFL wins
Tennessee's improbable win was bested only in Next Gen Stats history by the 2022 Jets, who rode Joe Flacco to a 31-30 win over the Browns in Week 2 of last season despite having a win probability of just 0.3 percent.
The Jets were down 30-17 with 1:55 left in regulation when they got the ball back from the Browns, needing to score. Flacco led a two-play touchdown drive that culminated in a 68-yard Corey Davis score before Justin Hardee recovered a Braden Mann onside kick with 1:22 left to give New York a fighting chance.
Flacco would go on to throw a 15-yard touchdown to Garrett Wilson with 22 seconds left to win the game. A Greg Zuerlein extra point and a Jacoby Brissett interception sealed Cleveland's fate as the NFL's most improbable loser.
Below is a look at the five most improbable NFL winners of the Next Gen Stats era.
| Rank | Team | Game/Opponent | Lowest win probability |
| 1 | Jets | Week 2, 2022 at Browns | 0.3% |
| 2 | Titans | Week 14, 2023 at Dolphins | 0.4% |
| 3 | Vikings | Week 15, 2022 vs. Colts | 0.4% |
| 4 | 49ers | Week 18, 2021 at Rams | 0.4% |
| 5 | Titans | Week 10, 2019 vs. Chiefs | 0.5% |
All that's to say that fans should be impressed by what the Titans accomplished against the Dolphins on "Monday Night Football." It isn't often that teams log those types of comebacks, especially not against a top contender like the Dolphins.
But Mike Vrabel and the Titans have two under their belts. So, perhaps there's something that suit's Vrabel's team well about having their backs to the wall.
