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Gardner Minshew, Nico Collins
(Getty Images)

When the Texans (9-7) travel to play the Colts in an AFC South matchup to close Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season on Saturday night, a playoff berth will be on the line, either as division champion or a wild-card entry. Houston and Indianapolis go into the game trailing Jacksonville (9-7) by a tiebreaker and will hope to qualify via some path.

The Colts, the current No. 7 seed, or the Texans, the current No. 8 team, will clinch at least a wild card by beating the other team. The winner also would take the division title if the Jaguars lose at the Titans.

Here's a betting breakdown of this de facto early playoff matchup between Houston and Indianapolis

Texans vs. Colts odds, spread, over/under

(All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction)

Spread: Texans -1 (-110) | Colts +1 (-110)
Over/Under: OVER 47.5 (-110) | UNDER 47.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Texans -120 | Colts +100

The Colts started out as slight home favorites, but the action is tilting toward the Texans, who have been the more impressive team all season when rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has been healthy. The Colts have taken advantage of a favorable second-half schedule, but they don't really have much of a home edge in a dome.

MORE TEXANS-COLTS: Best prop bets

Should you bet the Texans against the spread vs. Colts?

The Texans have the difference-maker back in Stroud, and they also have a strong running game with Devin Singletary. Their defense also has rebounded well overall under coach DeMeco Ryans. Even without wide receivers Tank Dell (leg) and Noah Brown (back), Houston has plenty of key offensive skill weapons.

The Colts are up-and-down passing with fill-in QB Gardner Minshew playing off the now-healthy running of Jonathan Taylor. They also field the league's No. 27 run defense and have some injuries that are hurting their pass defense.

Spread pick: Texans -1 (-110)

Should you bet the Texans-Colts OVER?

The Texans have some curbed firepower around Stroud and also can grind this game well with the defense and Singletary's running. The Colts have Michael Pittman Jr. and other dangerous weapons to help Minshew and Taylor, but the Texans are better positioned to contain them.

Our Pick: UNDER 47.5 (-110)

Final score prediction: Texans 23, Colts 20

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Author(s)
Vinnie Iyer Photo

Vinnie Iyer, has been with TSN since 1999, not long after graduating from Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism. He has produced NFL content for more than 20 years, turning his attention to full-time writing in 2007. A native of St. Louis, Mo. but now a long-time resident of Charlotte, N.C. Vinnie’s top two professional sports teams are Cardinals and Blues, but he also carries purple pride for all things Northwestern Wildcats. He covers every aspect of the NFL for TSN including player evaluations, gambling and fantasy football, where he is a key contributor. Vinnie represents TSN as host of the “Locked On Fantasy Football” podcast on the Locked On network. Over his many years at TSN, he’s also written about MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, tennis, horse racing, film and television. His can’t-miss program remains “Jeopardy!”, where he was once a three-day champion and he is still avid about crossword puzzles and trivia games. When not watching sports or his favorite game show, Vinnie is probably watching a DC, Marvel or Star Wars-related TV or movie.