One topic of discussion in the lead up to Super Bowl 53 has been where a victory Sunday against the Rams would rank for Patriots coach Bill Belichick. Good question. After all, this is Belichick's ninth Super Bowl, and he has won five of them.
But first, stop for a moment to consider those numbers: Nine Super Bowls. Five wins. Twelve NFL franchises have never won a Super Bowl. Four have never played in one.
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It truly is amazing that Belichick is pursuing his sixth Super Bowl win when almost 40 percent of a 32-team league has no Super Bowl wins.
Or ... would it be even more amazing if Belichick's Super Bowl record were 0-8 – and not 5-3 – heading into Sunday's game?
Before Patriots fans come looking for me ... Or if he were 8-0?
Seriously. Every one of the Patriots' Super Bowls under Belichick has been close. In a game that was once so closely associated with blowouts, not one Patriots win – or loss – has been by more than eight points. The average margin of victory in Belichick's five wins is 3.8, with his largest margin of victory, six, coming in overtime against the Falcons two years ago. The average margin in the three losses is five points, with the largest spread in last year's 41-33 shootout loss to the Eagles.
For some teams, a play or two somewhere within a 60-minute game is the differentiator. Not for Belichick. More often than not it has been one of the last plays of the game.
Let's take a look, and you will see just how close Belichick could be to either 0-8 or 8-0.
Super Bowl 36, February 3, 2002: Patriots 20, Rams 17
The Rams overcame a 17-3 fourth-quarter deficit and tied the score with 1:30 to play in regulation. With no timeouts, a rookie quarterback named Tom Brady drove the Patriots down the field, and Adam Vinatieri kicked a 48-yard field goal as time expired. "The Greatest Show on Turf" loses despite outgaining the Patriots 427 yards to 267.
Super Bowl 38, February 1, 2004: Patriots 32, Panthers 29
This time the Pats win with time to spare ... 4 seconds. That's how much time is left on the clock when Vinatieri connects on a 41-yard field goal.
Super Bowl 39: February 6, 2005: Patriots, 24, Eagles 21
Although the game is tied 14-14 going into the fourth quarter, this one didn't have a nail-biter of an ending. The Eagles' final points, on a touchdown pass, came with 1:48 to play to make it 24-21. Still, it's another three-point game that is decided late. If you want to split hairs, this is the one Belichick Super Bowl that might stand in the way of him being 0-8.
Super Bowl 42: February 3, 2008: Giants 17, Patriots 14
Two words: Helmet catch. We can stop right now and go on to Super Bowl 46 ... but we won't. The Patriots were chasing a 19-0 season, and only a miracle play prevented it from happening. With the Giants trailing 14-10 and facing a 3rd-and-5 on their 44-yard line, QB Eli Manning escaped the Patriots' pass rush and flung the ball downfield where David Tyree made an amazing catch, pinning the ball to his helmet as he fell to the ground. The play went for 32 yards. With 39 seconds left, Manning hit Plaxico Burress for a 13-yard touchdown reception. Oh ... and on the play before Tyree's catch, Patriots cornerback Asante Samuel let what looked like a sure interception slip through his hands.
Super Bowl 46: February 5, 2012: Giants 21, Patriots 17
Oh, those pesky Giants. The Patriots led 17-9 in the third quarter, and with the score 17-15, Manning drove the Giants 88 yards with Ahmad Bradshaw capping the drive with a 6-yard run with 57 seconds left. On the first play of the drive, in the shadow of his end zone, Manning completed an amazing 38-yard pass to Mario Manningham down the left sideline between two defenders.
Super Bowl 49: February 1, 2015: Patriots 28, Seahawks 24
If you are Seahawks fan, skip to the next game. In one of the most amazing turn of events in Super Bowl history — maybe even American sports history — the Seahawks inexplicably call a pass play from the Patriots' 1-yard line with 26 seconds on the clock, and Malcom Butler intercepts Russell Wilson. On the play before, Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch, in full "Beast Mode," had powered forward for 4 yards on first down. To this day, fans still can't believe coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell bypassed another Beast Mode run. That's all fans except for Patriots fans.
Super Bowl 51: February 5, 2017: Patriots 34, Falcons 28 (OT)
If you are a Falcons fan, skip to the next game. Atlanta led 28-3 midway through the third quarter ... and we all know what happened next. Brady led the remarkable comeback, with the Patriots tying the score with 57 seconds left in regulation. Then the Patriots won the coin toss at the start of overtime ... and we all know what happened next (because we just saw it against Kansas City in the AFC championship game). Brady engineered a 75-yard drive, capped by James White's 2-yard run. Game over. Another razor-thin win for the Patriots and Belichick.
Super Bowl 52: February 4, 2018: Eagles 41, Patriots 33
No miracles this time. The Patriots go ahead 33-32 with 9:22 to play, but the storybook finish goes to the Eagles and their backup quarterback, Nick Foles. But the outcome is in doubt until the game's final play, a Hail Mary by Brady from the New England 49 that doesn't connect.
History accurately records the Patriots' Super Bowl record at 5-3 under Belichick. But it easily could be different. Both better ... and worse.
Where will Sunday's game rank? Judging by Belichick's Super Bowl history, we won't know that until the last play of the game.
Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS).