This weekend's NFL slate is as plentiful as a Christmas day buffet. We have a doubleheader on Saturday, nine day games on Christmas Eve, and the Holiday Classic between the Broncos and Patriots on Sunday night (8:15 p.m., ABC). We'll specifically discuss the Denver game today, sharing the studs and sleepers we picked for our optimal DraftKings Showdown lineup for this AFC clash.
These squads have been traveling in different directions since the halfway point of the season. Bill Belichick's Patriots have gone 1-6 since Week 8, averaging 10.6 points per loss during that span. For the first time in a generation, Pats fans have started to wonder where Bill's headed after this season and what kind of high draft pick New England will land. Sean Payton's Broncos, meanwhile, have won six of their past eight games and inched their way into the AFC playoff bubble.
There are plenty of reasons to watch this one, so naturally we're making a DK Showdown lineup to root for along the way. Just like our approach with finding the best bets each NFL week, we scour DK for the best DFS values ahead of every Sunday night game and assemble what we deem to be an optimal lineup. Our approach each week is simple: research, compare values, and make roster-building moves that will separate us from the rest of the DFS pack.
Before we get into our lineup and strategy, here are the key scoring settings for DraftKings Showdown contests: They're full-point PPR and there are three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and 100 receiving yards. The Captain pick costs 1.5 times a player's original price, but he also gets his point total multiplied by 1.5.
MORE SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Betting preview | FanDuel lineup
Broncos-Patriots DraftKings Picks: DFS lineup for Week 16 Sunday Night Football
$50,000 budget, need at least one player from each team.
Captain (1.5x points, 1.5x salary): Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Patriots ($15,300)
Elliott has benefited in a major way from running mate Rhamondre Stevenson's ankle injury. The veteran power back has averaged 23 opportunities per game over the past three weeks, which has translated to 16.6 DK points per game during that span.
Now Zeke draws a Broncos defense that has surrendered the most rushing yards to RBs on the season (129 per game), the eighth-most RB receiving yards (37.9 per game), and the third-most RB touchdowns (17 total). And though Denver has improved since giving up 70 points to the Dolphins earlier this year, the Broncos still let the Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combine for 185 rushing yards last week. They're mile-high turnstiles.
History also suggests that Elliott gets up for primetime and holiday games. In 35 career night games, he has averaged 97.7 all-purpose yards per game and totaled 24 TDs. The man's going to eat, especially if 'Mondre can't make his return this week. He's a great choice at the Captain spot for the Holiday Classic.
MORE DK SHOWDOWN: How to win a Showdown contest
FLEX Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos ($11,000)
Sutton has been awesome all season, though the casual fan probably overlooks him each week. He's Russ Wilson's go-to target in the red zone and on third downs, as evidenced by his 10 receiving TDs (third in the NFL). A whopping 46 of his 58 catches have either gone for first downs or touchdowns.
Sutton has played a huge role in Denver's recent surge up the standings. He has scored six TDs since Week 7, a span that has seen the Broncos go 6-2. And in just the last five games, the sixth-year wideout has averaged 67.4 yards per game.
With Jerry Jeudy actually making an impact last week in Detroit, we're even more confident in Sutton finding openings in New England's banged-up and inconsistent secondary. He's a high-floor, high-ceiling option this Christmas Eve.
FLEX Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos ($9,400)
Williams hit the skids a bit last week against Detroit, managing just 20 yards on 14 touches. In the six games prior, he had averaged 14.2 DK points per game. The Patriots have been tough against the run, but they do rank among the 10 most generous defenses in terms of receiving yards allowed to RBs (37.3 YPG).
Bill Belichick's squad has also allowed 11 total TDs to the position this season, including a pair of TDs to Chiefs backup backs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon last week. Williams' upside is there in the mile-high air.
FLEX Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots ($7,000)
NOTE: At the time of this writing, Henry has still yet to practice this week due to a knee injury. If he can't suit up this weekend, we would replace him with Broncos wideout Jerry Jeudy ($8,000). We're leaving ourselves enough salary to be able to afford either pass-catcher in this spot.
Nobody in New England has benefited from the Bailey Zappe experience more than Henry. The veteran tight end has logged 19-plus DK points in each of the past two weeks, catching a combined 10-of-12 targets for 106 yards and three TDs during that span. Denver has allowed a whopping 16.9 DK points per game to TEs this season, second-most in the NFL. If he suits up, fire him up.
FLEX Samaje Perine, RB, Broncos ($3,600)
We love the idea of having both of Denver's main RBs, as we feel like we're coming close to monopolizing the home team's RB TDs. Perine has seen at least seven touches and 44-plus yards in each of Denver's past two games, so we like him to power through for a score against the Pats.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon combined for 131 scrimmage yards and two TDs last week against the Pats in New England — there's no reason Williams and Perine can't do even better this Sunday night.
FLEX Lil'Jordan Humphrey, WR, Broncos ($2,400)
Revenge game! Humphrey gets a chance to show out against the team he played six games for last season, and he's coming off his best game as a Bronco. Last week in Detroit, the fifth-year wideout caught 3-of-4 targets for 19 yards and a TD. That looks modest on paper, but it's good for 10.6 PPR points! We'll take him against a Pats D that has surrendered 244 or more receiving yards in seven games this season.
Best Broncos-Patriots SuperDraft DFS Picks
As we have every week, we're also listing our favorite single-game DFS plays on SuperDraft.
For those unfamiliar, SuperDraft's DFS scoring involves point multipliers as opposed to traditional salary-capped or tiered contests. A winning lineup will likely feature a strong mix of stud fantasy contributors with 1x-1.6x boosts, as well as matchup-based sleepers with larger multipliers. Each player is assigned a scoring multiplier based on their value as determined by SuperDraft. Users can roster any player in their lineup with no restrictions.
MORE: Win BIG with SuperDraft! Join now and get a free deposit match of $20!
Here are the most notable scoring rules for SuperDraft NFL contests: Half-point PPR, four-point passing TDs, two-point bonuses for 100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, and 300 passing yards.
MORE SUPERDRAFT DFS: How to play SuperDraft
- Champion (+50% points): Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos (1.5x)
- Super FLEX: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Patriots (1.65x)
- Super FLEX: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos (1.8x)
- Super FLEX: Demario Douglas, WR, Patriots (2.35x)
- Super FLEX: Lil'Jordan Humphrey, WR, Broncos (3x)
We employed a fairly similar approach with our SuperDraft DFS lineup, keeping four of the skill players we drafted to our DK squad. We couldn't resist drafting Douglas, who has emerged as the Pats' most reliable wideout, at a 2.35-times boost. And we love the 3x-boost for Humphrey. We have plenty of lineup variance since we avoided both teams' quarterbacks.
