Entering the 2023 NFL season, the Lions were one of the most-hyped teams in the league. The Seahawks, at least in some of our eyes, were the most underrated. Now, after Detroit upset the Chiefs in the season-opener and Seattle whiffed at home against the Rams, these squads will do battle in Motown. We'll set the table for this one betting-wise, and provide you with everything you need to know before placing your bets.
After the Lions' massive one-point victory over Kansas City last Thursday, they jumped from a popular sleeper pick to one of the odds-on favorites to win it all. In under a week, their +2500 Super Bowl odds jumped up to +1800 — well within the top 10 of the NFL on the futures board. Dan Campbell's squad now has the highest SB ticket percentage (40.5%), highest handle percentage (39.3%), and (obviously) they represent the sportsbook's biggest Super Bowl liability.
However, Detroit also has a target on its back as the talk of the town and the slayer of the mighty Chiefs. Despite the Chiefs missing some key players, Detroit seems like a deserved favorite this week. Now it's time to see if they actually make for a good ATS wager or if more favorable betting options exist elsewhere.
Let's dive into the updated BetMGM odds for Lions-Seahawks and discuss our best bets, top props, and final score prediction for this Week 2 NFC showdown.
Lions vs. Seahawks odds, spread, over/under
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- Spread: Lions -5.5 (-110) | Seahawks +5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 47 (-110) | UNDER 47 (-110)
- Moneyline: Lions -250 | Seahawks +195
The Lions, to nobody's surprise, enter this weekend favored by nearly a touchdown at Ford Field. They just knocked off the Chiefs at Arrowhead while Geno Smith and the Seahawks got smacked around 30-13 at home by a Rams squad coming off a five-win season.
Talk about two teams that appear to be headed in completely different directions. But don't go smashing the spread just yet. As our friends at BetQL note in their sharp betting report, a whopping 78 percent of the handle is on the Seahawks' spread but 72 percent of the moneyline handle is on the Lions. Clearly, we need to do some research before making an informed decision.
Should you bet the Lions against the spread?
To put it bluntly, no. We regard Detroit -5.5 as one of the worst picks of the week even though they just shocked (most of) the sports world by prevailing over Patrick Mahomes on opening night. The Chiefs were missing their No. 1 pass-catcher and playmaker, Travis Kelce, so their top vertical threat became Kadarius Toney, who dropped multiple downfield passes that hit him in the damn hands!
In fact, if Toney had not suffered his third drop (which, by the way, stands alone as the NFL high), Kansas City probably would have defeated the Lions. Hell, if the Chiefs suffered just three drops and not an NFL-high five drops, maybe they're 1-0 right now. The point is, K.C. couldn't have choked much harder.
We will give credit where credit's due, though. Detroit's defensive line played very well that entire game. Explosive wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown looked as good as ever downfield. The power-and-finesse duo of veteran David Montgomery and rookie Jahmyr Gibbs proved too much for a Chiefs D that sorely missed defensive tackle and early-season holdout Chris Jones. Perhaps most important, Jared Goff, once again, looked like a QB capable of leading a contender to glory.
But let's not act like the Lions are in any way worthy of being BetMGM's biggest Super Bowl liability. They still have a ton of weaknesses and deficiencies, and they're in no way, shape, or form a strong bet to beat a fringe playoff team by a TD. Pete Carroll has too strong of a track record, the Seahawks have too much offensive talent, and the Lions have too questionable of a defense.
Our pick: Seahawks +5.5
Should you bet the Lions' moneyline?
Detroit's bloated -250 moneyline strikes us as a poor bet, and BetQL agrees. The QL model ranks the Lions' ML as a two-star bet and their -5.5 spread as a one-star bet (that's out of five stars, people — no bueno!). Alas, better options exist if you want to bet on a winner or loser of this game.
Our approach, if we decide to roll with the Lions: Bet an alternate spread and take them -3 at -190. That shaves 2.5 points off the spread but only adds -80 of juice. That way, Detroit covers with a 27-23 victory, which is what we happen to project the final score to be in this game. If the Lions happen to only win by a field goal, we get our money back via a push.
Seattle obviously underestimated the Rams last week. Matthew Stafford turned in a vintage performance even though he was missing All-Pro wideout Cooper Kupp. He executed under pressure and put passes where they needed to be the entire game, and his momentum transferred over to the defensive side of the ball where Aaron Donald and company terrorized Smith.
The Lions' defensive line looked strong last week, as well, but we expect Seattle will be a bit more prepared for battle this week. Whether we see a lot more screens and dump-offs to second-year back Kenneth Walker III or just a lot more short-yardage work for DK Metcalf, we like the visiting team to open up the field the way Kansas City should have against Detroit last week. In the end, though, we'll still take the Lions for the dub.
Our pick: Lions (-250)
Final score prediction: Lions 27, Seahawks 23
Should you bet the Lions-Seahawks' over or under?
We have this one going OVER by a few points, as we expect this game to be one of the best mini-shootouts of the early season. Both these squads have below-average secondaries and above-average offenses (we still believe in you, Geno!). If not for the Chiefs' receivers throwing up on themselves last week, that season-opener probably would have ended up closer to 50 than 40 (the Lions won 21-20).
If Seattle had treated L.A. more like the 2021-22 NFL champions and less like the 2022-23 laughingstocks, Pete Carroll and company wouldn't have been embarrassed at home. This week's a clean slate and a prime opportunity for both offenses to improve.
Our pick: OVER 47 (-110).
Best Seahawks vs. Lions prop bet via SuperDraft
Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks — OVER 239.5 passing yards
Smith was the most accurate quarterback in the NFL just a season ago, and the Seahawks added to his plethora of weapons by drafting wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba and running back Zach Charbonnet. However, the veteran QB clearly had no idea what he was in for last Sunday, getting pressured from his opening drive to the final whistle.
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The Lions' defense, while impressive in the trenches at Arrowhead last week, was not nearly as good as the box score implies. Kansas City still had plenty of breakaway opportunities thwarted by its own butterfingers, resulting in the Chiefs leading the NFL with an incredible five drops. Don't expect DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and company to be as generous with their open looks this time around. For that matter, don't expect Smith to be nearly as pedestrian.
