The most laughable speculation so far in the 2019 NFL offseason is that of Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson being traded to the Giants.
The idea has picked up steam in part because Wilson is entering the last year of his contract, and negotiations on an extension with Seattle have not yet commenced. Wilson could be seeking a record-breaking deal worth $40 million per year, a number at which the Seahawks could balk. And then there's the belief that Wilson's wife Ciara is pushing for a relocation to New York, a move that would be beneficial for her singing, modeling and acting career.
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Relax, Seahawks fans.
For a handful of reasons, your Super Bowl-winning, six-time Pro Bowl QB is not going anywhere.
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Wilson, who would make most people's top five list of current NFL QBs, ranked third in passer rating last season with his career-best 110.9. He threw a career-high 35 touchdown passes and tied his career low with just seven interceptions. He is still a running threat, as shown by his 376 rushing yards, often to convert third downs.
Most important, Wilson is Seattle's best player, and he led his team to the playoffs with a 10-6 record in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year.
Star QBs with such a resume almost never change teams, except in the case of injury (see Peyton Manning). In his seven seasons, Wilson has never missed a start. He also has not indicated any dissatisfaction with the Seahawks, and the team has indicated the feeling is mutual.
Seahawks GM John Schneider says he sees Russell Wilson being with the Seahawks long-term. “I really do. I have no other reason to believe otherwise other than web site rumors.”
— Mike Jones (@ByMikeJones) February 27, 2019
Seattle has plenty of cap room for a Wilson extension, and his 2019 cap number of $23.8 million can actually be lowered or kept level under a new deal. The money also is there for free-agent signees, and the Seahawks can work the draft — which general manager John Schneider does so well — to make Wilson happy. Another key factor: If the Seahawks were to trade Wilson this year, they would absorb a dead money hit of $8.3 million. Teams always want to avoid such a burden.
A team would have to make an incredible offer for Wilson — three first-round picks at a minimum — to even get the attention of the Seahawks. That is not in the Giants’ MO. Perhaps only the Raiders and their boatload of picks would make such an offer. But even then, if I were managing the Seahawks, I would not trade my 31-year-old franchise QB who could play another 10 years at a high level. I think Schneider feels the same way.
Yet, despite all the factors that strongly favor a long-term extension, it's not going to be an easy negotiation for Schneider. That negotiation, not the trade rumor, should be the big question in Seattle.
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Schneider does have the franchise tag in his back pocket, at an estimated $30 million in 2020. So if necessary, he could force Wilson to play out his contract in 2019 for the $17 million base salary and then franchise him. That would not play well in the Wilson camp.
But the Seahawks have not been afraid to pay their 2012 third-round pick a top of the market deal; they did it back in 2015, when Wilson was extended at $22 million per year, which at that time made him the second highest-paid QB in the league.
Among the complicating factors are the Collective Bargaining Agreement that expires after the 2020 season and the current NFL TV deals that end in 2021 but will likely be extended before then. Wilson and his agent might foresee a big jump in the salary cap around that time as those deals are consummated.
As for the fuss over when Wilson contract negotiations might commence, the Combine is when and where GMs usually meet with agents to begin contract talks for star players entering the final year under contract. I'm sure Schneider will be discussing Wilson's contract with his agent, along with other potential free-agent deals, when he's not watching the incoming draftees' workouts or interviewing the rookie class.
I fully expect an announcement this summer that Wilson has signed a four-year extension worth more annually than what current highest-paid QB Aaron Rodgers got last year. The Packers QB signed a $33.5 million-per-year extension with two years left on his deal, so his actual amount earned will be $29.3 million per year over six years.
I don't think Wilson will get to the $40 million-per-year level, but I can see him receiving a $140 million extension over four additional years for $35 million per year in new money. And when his $17 million for this season is included, he would earn $31.4 million per year, making him the top-paid QB in the NFL.
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And with more than $100 million of his new deal sure to be guaranteed, Wilson will be able to easily cover the cost of private jet service to shuttle his wife to New York — or whenever necessary — while they continue to make their home base in the beautiful city of Seattle.
Then the NFL rumor mill can move on to the next ridiculous notion.
Jeff Diamond is a former president of the Titans and former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He makes speaking appearances to corporate/civic groups and college classes on negotiation and sports business/sports management. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
