The Ravens’ bandwagon is filling up. Baltimore is the favorite to win the Super Bowl, and the Ravens could become odds-on favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of this week.
The Ravens are the biggest favorite of the NFL's divisional round, and oddsmakers have them favored by 10 points over the Titans on Saturday night.
No one is giving the Titans much of a shot, but this Tennessee team has been one of the best in the league since benching Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill. You can bet on Tannehill’s numbers against Baltimore’s defense on Sunday along with other player props.
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Lamar Jackson over/under 217.5 passing yards
The 2019 NFL MVP has revolutionized the quarterback position. Lamar Jackson finished what Randall Cunningham and Michael Vick started to have one of the best seasons for a quarterback in the history of the league, and Jackson’s play has made Baltimore’s offense incredibly difficult to stop. He has proven that he can be successful with his arm at this level, and he led the NFL in touchdown passes this season.
Baltimore throws the ball less often than all but one team though. The Ravens are content to take games over with their run game in order to wear down opposing fronts, and they have a trio of powerful running backs that leave their mark on linebackers and safeties that have to come into the box to stop them. Jackson will have success against Tennessee in the passing game, but he might not have gaudy numbers as Baltimore looks to keep it on the ground.
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Ryan Tannehill over/under 218.5 passing yards
Tennessee was the only team to throw the ball less often than Baltimore in 2019. The Titans pounded the ball with Derrick Henry throughout the season, and the plan was for Tannehill to use that to eventually beat defenses over the top on play action. The former Miami quarterback thrived in this offense, leading the league in passer rating over his 10 starts, and he averaged 243.9 YPG.
However, the Patriots showed that a solid secondary can completely limit Tennessee’s options in the passing game last week. Tannehill completed just 8 of 15 passes for 72 yards, and the only player to catch more than one pass was unheralded tight end Anthony Firkser. Rookie A.J. Brown was completely shut down by Stephon Gilmore, and Baltimore has a secondary that can do the same with Pro Bowlers Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Earl Thomas III.
Derrick Henry over/under 93.5 rushing yards
Henry surpassed Nick Chubb to win the NFL rushing title in Week 17, and he showed no sign of slowing down last week against New England. Mike Vrabel leaned heavily on Henry to wear down New England’s front seven, and the former Heisman Trophy winner responded with an outstanding game. Henry wore the Patriots’ front seven down, ending the evening with 34 carries for 182 yards and a touchdown.
Like many defenses, Baltimore’s front seven is designed to get after the passer, but the Ravens aren’t as solid against the run. Baltimore ranked outside the top 20 in run defense, conceding 4.4 YPC in the regular season, so Vrabel will want to run Henry at least 25 times in this game.
Lamar Jackson over/under 78.5 rushing yards
This total would be absurd for any other quarterback, but not Lamar Jackson. Jackson set the single season rushing record for a quarterback despite not playing in Week 17, and he is likely going to be asked to run the ball more now that we are in the postseason.
Jackson ran the ball 11.8 times per game in the regular season, averaging 6.9 YPC in the process. Tennessee’s game plan will call for a linebacker to spy Jackson, but that has yet to work against the young quarterback. He’ll get his chances and likely go over the total.
Marquise Brown over/under 38.5 receiving yards
Hollywood Brown has been Baltimore’s best receiver this season, but his production has tailed off considerably after a strong first few months. Brown has caught just 11 passes for 65 yards in his last five games, and he only has one catch longer than 10 yards in that stretch. Jackson will likely test Tennessee’s defense at least once with a go route from Brown, but he might be kept off the box score otherwise.