The New England Patriots weren’t supposed to be playing on wild-card weekend. For the first time in a decade, the best organization in football doesn’t have a first-round bye after a shocking loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 17.
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New England has never won the Super Bowl without a first-round bye, and that loss led to the Patriots’ Super Bowl odds doubling prior to the postseason. They are favored by just five points in Foxboro against the surging Tennessee Titans, and many pundits are calling for the Titans to pull off the upset. This stands to be the most exciting game of Wild Card Weekend, and some of these prop bets will give you a little something extra to enjoy.
Tom Brady over/under 259.5 passing yards
Brady’s struggles have been well-documented this season. His 6.6 YPA is his worst average since 2002, but he did throw for over 4,000 yards as New England’s run game was largely nonexistent. He largely relied on James White and Julian Edelman, and opponents continually focused their efforts on stopping those two players as the season went on.
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The lack of a downfield passing game has really hurt Brady and this offense. N’Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers, and Mohamed Sanu have not stretched the field as hoped, leaving this offense sputtering. It’s unlikely that Brady has much success with routes longer than 20 yards as Tennessee has the best safety in the league in Kevin Byard, so he will likely need to throw 40 passes or more to get over the total. It’s tough to see that happening given the forecast is calling for showers all day Saturday.
Ryan Tannehill over/under 230.5 passing yards
Tennessee’s season turned around when Mike Vrabel replaced Marcus Mariota with Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill has been excellent this year, completing 70 percent of his passes for over 2,700 yards in 10 starts, and he is averaging a whopping 9.6 YPA. He has the best rookie wide receiver of 2019 in A.J. Brown, and those two have established quite the rapport over the last few weeks.
New England has the league’s best cornerback in Stephon Gilmore though. Gilmore has been outstanding this year, and his play is one of the reasons that the Patriots have been the best defense in the AFC. For Tannehill to go over his total, players like Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Adam Humphries will need to have better games, as Brown is unlike to keep his 20.2 YPC average intact against Gilmore.
MORE: Full betting preview for Patriots vs. Titans
Derrick Henry over/under 90.5 rushing yards
The league’s leading rusher will see plenty of work given the weather conditions. Derrick Henry carried the ball 303 times for 1,540 yards in the regular season, and he will likely see 80 percent of Tennessee’s carries on Saturday night. Henry has been superb over the last two months, running for over 100 yards in five of his last six games, and he has run for over 145 yards in four of his last six outings.
The Patriots are surrendering 4.2 YPC, and this front seven had trouble stopping power running games throughout the season. Vrabel will be more than happy to lean on Henry if given the opportunity, and he should receive the workload needed to go over his total.
James White over/under 37.5 receiving yards
White is one of the most targeted running backs in the league coming out of the backfield, and Josh McDaniels is constantly scheming to get him open. He saw 6.3 targets per game on average this season, and he averaged 43 receiving yards per game, making the over the best play here. White is likely to see
plenty of targets in the short passing game against this defense as Brady continually checks down to him underneath or out of the backfield.
Julian Edelman over/under 68.5 receiving yards
Edelman has been Brady’s favorite target for years, so the Titans are going to focus their efforts on taking away Edelman as best they can. He has seen a whopping 153 targets this season, but his catch rate has declined as opponents have tried to slow him down. Edelman won’t have his same elusiveness in this game since he is dealing with knee and shoulder injuries, so look for Tennessee to limit his production.