Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season features plenty of saucy divisional clashes, including a classic rivalry game between the Patriots and the Dolphins in South Beach (1 p.m. ET, CBS. Plenty of storylines exist around this one, with Tyreek Hill playing his first regular-season game as a 'Phin and the Patriots once again forging ahead without Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator.
Not much seems certain in the AFC East beyond the fact that Buffalo has far-and-away the best odds to make the playoffs (-600) and win the Super Bowl (+600). New England and Miami seem to field above-average defenses year in and year out; however, question marks remain at the quarterback position for both squads.
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Will running back guru Mike McDaniel bring his elite ground-game schemes to Miami and finally help Tua Tagovailoa get over the hump? Can Mac Jones reach his full potential despite former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels leaving to coach the Raiders? Hopefully, we have a better idea of how to answer these questions after this Sunday afternoon tilt.
For now, let's focus on what we already know and make some informed decisions to earn some cash. Here's all the information you need for betting on Patriots vs. Dolphins in Week 1, including updated odds, trends, storylines, and our prediction.
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Patriots vs. Dolphins odds for Sunday afternoon
Betting odds from Sports Interaction
- Spread: Dolphins -3.5
- Over/under: O 46 (-110) | U 46 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dolphins -185 | Patriots +155
According to BetQL, the spread opened at -3, dipped to -2.5 around midsummer, fluctuated back to -3, and ultimately settled at -3.5 during the past week. With sharps jumping on the Dolphins, sportsbooks likely wanted to push some action onto the Patriots by giving them a field-goal cover. Similarly, the 'Phins opened as -150 favorites on the ML, bounced between -160 and -135 throughout the summer, and then steadily inched all the way to -185 over the past few days. The total opened and flat-lined at 45 all summer, dipped to 44.5, then crawled up to 47 — only to land back at 46.
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Patriots vs. Dolphins all-time series
The Dolphins lead the Patriots 59-54 all-time and have won four of the past five meetings between these franchises. Not surprisingly, New England dominated Miami in the Tom Brady era, going 25-12 between December 2001 and Brady's '20 departure for Tampa. Brady and the Pats throttled the 'Phins 43-0 in September of '19, but every game since has been decided by 10 or fewer points. The last New England win over Miami was the season opener in '20 when Cam Newton was under center for the red, white, and blue. Mac Jones lost both his starts against Miami last season.
Patriots vs. Dolphins: Three trends to know
—Miami ranked sixth in passing touchdowns allowed last season, surrendering just 1.3 per game. Jones managed just one passing TD in each of the Patriots-Dolphins contests.
—The Dolphins went 3-1 straight up as a home favorite last season but just 2-2 against the spread as a home favorite. New England went 6-3 SU on the road, 5-4 ATS in away games, and 2-2 ATS as away favorites.
—The OVER went 2-5 in games Miami was favored to win last season. The Pats and 'Phins combined to score 33 points in last year's season opener, 13 points under this weekend's projected total.
Patriots vs. Dolphins: Three things to watch
How will Tyreek Hill impact Tua Tagovailoa's progression?
Hill went from the most explosive playmaker on the perennial-contending Chiefs to the most important part of a developing Miami offense's rebuild. "Cheetah" can make magic happen with the ball in his hands, so it won't surprise anyone if head coach Mike McDaniel and offensive coordinator Frank Smith utilize him in a variety of different ways. McDaniel oversaw the breakout of WR/RB hybrid Deebo Samuel in San Francisco, and Hill is faster and possesses a more dynamic skill set. TyFreak serves as an infinite upgrade over former WR2 Devante Parker (now with the Patriots), Jaylen Waddle goes from a very good WR1 to a great WR2, and strong WR3 Cedrick Wilson brings his underrated game over from the Cowboys. That's three YAC-friendly wideouts for Tua, complemented by underrated tight end Mike Gesicki. McDaniel helped the Niners make the NFC Championship game last winter — despite Jimmy G passing for 172 yards vs. the Cowboys in the wild card game and 131 yards vs. the Packers in the divisional contest — so clearly the man's a magician. This could be the makings of an even better RPO system than we saw in San Francisco.
Will Mike McDaniel turn South Beach into the new stud RB incubator?
We talked about how we think Miami will run a strong RPO scheme. Obviously, that won't work unless the Dolphins first establish a strong running game. With dual-threat RB Chase Edmonds and speedster Raheem Mostert, the latter of whom McDaniel got to know in the Bay Area, the nucleus is set. Edmonds should work perfectly in a McDaniel offense — he can catch the ball just as well as he can run — and the blazing-fast Mostert can create space to take it to the house in an instant. If everyone stays healthy, the sky's the limit for this Miami offense. The Pats had a very good defense last season, but their one weakness was stopping the run. We've seen New England struggle with defending good RPOs in the past, so don't be surprised if it's a long Sunday for Belichick's boys.
Will the Patriots be able to withstand all their offseason losses?
The mantra in New England continues to be "In Bill we trust," but some Patriots fans are starting to lose their faith. After the second departure of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in a dozen years and countless key names from the Pats' 2021 roster leaving for greener pastures, how will this team rebound? Belichick has alluded to increasing RB2 Rhamondre Stevenson's workload, specifically featuring him more in the passing game. Former Dolphin wideout Devante Parker should help a bit, but he's by no means a game-changer like some of the actual contenders of the league acquired during the offseason. Looking at New England's schedule, it's hard to see how this is a playoff team anytime soon, especially after losing '21 stud corner J.C. Jackson (Chargers), O-lineman Ted Karras (Bengals), and linebacker Kyle Van Noy (Chargers).
Patriots vs. Dolphins: Stat that matters
5. Number of turnovers New England committed against Miami last season — two in the season-opener, three in the season finale. The Dolphins ranked eighth in takeaways in 2021 and fourth in fumbles recovered. Mac Jones suffered turnovers in six of his seven losses last season.
Patriots vs. Dolphins: Prediction
We don't see a blowout coming this weekend, but we also don't see Mac Jones taking down his first career victory over the Dolphins at Hard Rock. The Dolphins had a B+ offseason, while the Patriots flirted with a D-. This sure seems like two squads headed in opposite directions, with the aging Belichick wondering why his philosophy of never paying for peak producers no longer works. In the end, the Pats just don't have enough game-changing pieces on either side of the ball, or at least not nearly as many as Miami. New England will find a way to charge back in the second half — and most likely cover the +3.5 — but the Dolphins will emerge with their fourth-straight victory over the Pats. We like the UNDER with both squads still figuring out their new-look rosters and identities.
Dolphins 23-Patriots 21
