Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen — it's been one of the best rivalries not just in the NFL, but across the entire landscape of sports over the past half-decade. Even casual sports fans and bettors have some core memories of these superstar quarterbacks engaging in battle.
The sharpest bettors will be searching for every angle to find an edge on this matchup and make informed decisions in the player prop market. We examined Mahomes and Allen across the first six head-to-head matchups and settled on a few key takeaways.
Here's our statistical analysis of the six-game history between these two decorated QBs, and what said analysis reveals about player props for the AFC divisional-round matchup between the Chiefs and Bills. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy the second round of the NFL Playoffs!
Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen stats and prop bets
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, Canada's most trusted sportsbook. Bet on this weekend's NFL games now!
Mahomes vs. Allen: Passing
| Player | Yards/game | Comp. Rate | TDs | INTs |
| Mahomes | 301.5 | 67.7% | 13 | 5 |
| Allen | 269.2 | 60.9% | 15 | 3 |
Mahomes has been a vastly superior volume passer than Allen. However, you have to look more deeply into the postseason stats to know how truly awesome the two-time Super Bowl winner has been against his rival. In two career playoff tilts against Buffalo, Mahomes has totaled 703 yards, a 75.6 percent completion rate, six TDs, and zero interceptions.
Mahomes' clutch gene makes him tough to fade on the player prop market during the playoffs. Sports Interaction has Buffalo slightly favored this weekend (-2.5) with a 45.5-point over/under, translating to an implied total of Bills 24, Chiefs 21. If the game in fact winds up being that close, we should expect plenty of passing from Mahomes.
Over the four games this season in which Kansas City won or lost by four points or fewer, the star QB averaged 38.8 passing attempts. The Chiefs blew out Miami last week and he still attempted 41 passes. Throughout his postseason career, Mahomes has averaged over 310 passing yards in games he attempts 35 or more passes. How many times has he attempted 35-plus passes in a playoff game, you ask? A whopping 11 times in 15 games.
Based on all these trends, here are the over/under wagers we would consider making:
- Mahomes OVER 262.5 passing yards (-115)
- Mahomes OVER 36.5 passing attempts (-110).
Allen is a bit more of a wild card in terms of passing, as we have only seen him play the Chiefs once at home in the playoffs. However, we still see plenty of value in Allen OVER 231.5 passing yards (-115). While second-year backs Isiah Pacheco and James Cook have been solid, this won't be a ground-or-pound game — this one will be decided by the QBs.
Mahomes vs. Allen: Rushing
| Player | Attempts | Rush. YPG | Rush. TDs |
| Patrick Mahomes | 30 | 33.3 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 60 | 53.5 | 2 |
These numbers demonstrate how often Allen turns to his legs for big first downs compared to Mahomes, and how much more effective of a strategy QB mobility has been for Buffalo. The head-to-head rushing numbers would appear even more stark if not for the knock-down, drag-out divisional-round affair between Buffalo and Kansas City two years ago.
That was a 42-36 barnburner that saw Mahomes put up a rare 69-yard rushing performance in addition to 378 passing yards and four total TDs. Allen, who finished with 329 passing yards, four passing TDs, and 68 rushing yards, played one of the best postseason games of any QB in a loss. No doubt that game remains fresh in Allen's brain 24 months later, and we can't wait to see what the 6-5, 240-pound QB will do this weekend to try to push Buffalo past its rivals.
One thing's for sure: Allen will run when Kansas City gives him the space to do so. KC defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves to blitz but that does leave the second level vulnerable if Allen is able to shake free.
The Bills have won six games in a row, and it's no coincidence that the stud QB has averaged 9.5 rushing attempts and 42.6 rushing yards per game during that span, including 141 ground yards in just the past two weeks!
These trends tell us that Allen OVER 43.5 rushing yards (-115) is a solid bet. However, Mahomes' over/under of 28.5 might be a bit risky, given his preference (and success) passing the ball against Buffalo. We also don't see much value in the TD scorer market, considering neither of these guys has even averaged 0.5 ground TDs per game over their six head-to-head meetings.
We want to make bets that correlate with historic trends and also fit the narrative and game script we expect to unfold this weekend. That's why exercises like today's history lesson typically separate us from the betting public and translate to success on the player prop market.
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