Patrick Mahomes is winning his second NFL MVP award for another stellar season quarterbacking the Chiefs' explosive offense. Unfortunately, based on recent history, that doesn't bode well for his team's chances to beat the Eagles in Super Bowl 57 on Sunday.
Since 1999 when Hall of Famer Kurt Warner did it for the surprising Rams, no player who won regular-season MVP has also led his team to Super Bowl victory. Of those 22 MVPs, including Mahomes in 2018, 13 weren't able to lead the team to the Super Bowl. The other 9 did get there, but in most cases, the 8 MVP quarterbacks and lone MVP running back were denied a ring by one thing — running into a tough defense.
When Warner was going for a double after winning his second MVP in 2001, Bill Belichick and New England's pass defense did a number on him. Rich Gannon, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Cam Newton met similar ugly fates. Matt Ryan, despite a big first half, also couldn't end the curse as the Patriots stopped him during their legendary second half comeback. It will be difficult for Mahomes to reverse the curse and avoid joining that list.
The Eagles, like the Patriots, Buccaneers, Giants, Saints, Seahawks, and Broncos before them, are in a similar situation to get the better of a NFL MVP with the right kind of D. The NFL MVPs in the Super Bowl curse has correlation, but there's also causation. Here's why Philadelphia's defense matches up so well to deny Mahomes and Kansas City's offense:
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The classic pass rush
This is the No. 1 element that has burned MVP-led offenses in the Super Bowl. Gannon had to deal with Simeon Rice and Warren Sapp. Newton saw too much of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. In between, the most prime example, Brady saw the Patriots' undefeated dreams dashed by Justin Tuck and Michael Strahan.
The Eagles also excel on the edges as part of their NFL-leading near-record total of 70 sacks. Starting ends Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat each had 11 of those, while outside linebacker Haason Reddick led the team with 16.
What makes the Eagles unique is the fact they have also gotten to the QB plenty inside with the tackles. Javon Hargrave matched Graham and Sweat's individual production and tackle. Fletcher Cox added a robust 7 sacks.
Pressuring an NFL MVP QB with four rushers of choice and being able to drop seven men into coverage is critical. That also means the Eagles can trust their guys to win up front and not get too exotic with blitzes, creating those favorable one-on-on coverage shots for Mahomes.
“Our focus is second effort and just trying to get him down, just try to beat him. It’s going to take all of us" Hargave told Sporting News. "Sometimes the front four can win, but he can also get out of the pocket to make plays.
Beyond their physical talent and array of moves to the quarterback, the Eagles' pass rushers have a collective mindset to relentless keep working until the results are there. That's something they are prepared to have vs. Mahomes.
"You gotta keep rushing. You can’t get too frustrated and don’t put your head down when makes plays" Hargrave said. "That’s why he’s an MVP."
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The deep playmaking secondary
The Patriots thwarted Warner's wide receivers with physical coverage from cornerbacks Ty Law and Otis Smith. The Buccaneers were led by Ronde Barber and John Lynch vs. Gannon, but Dwight Smith and Dexter Jackson stole the show with their big plays. Manning saw Tracy Porter seal his Super Bowl fate vs. the Saints and went bust vs. the Seahawks "Legion of Boom."
Darius "Big Play" Slay is the Eagles headliner at cornerback, complemented well on the outside with the nice-sized sound cover man James Bradberry. But they also are tough to beat inside downfield with slot corner Avonte Maddox and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
“We just need to do our job, check our boxes and play hard for each other," There won’t be anything crazy." Slay told Sporting News about the Eagles' plans for covering Mahomes' receivers. "I’m.an All-Pro corner. James is an All-Pro corner. We just need to handle our stuff, go out there and play ball.”
The Eagles' pressure eases the burden on them for how long they will need to hold up in coverage. But should Mahomes extend the plays on designed scramble action or when flushed out of the pocket, they are also capable of limiting his options.
“It’s all a mirror, rush and cover," Slay said. "We cover well everyone out there so they can get there and they rush fast enough to so we can cover guys. It’s all together.”
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The versatile linebacker corps
The Patriots, from Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel vs. Warner through Dont'a Hightower's game-changing strip stack vs. Ryan, have enjoyed this consistently under Belichick. The Bucs had Derrick Brooks making plays all over the field vs. Gannon. Manning was bit both by Jonathan Vilma and Malcolm Smith.
The Eagles have the dynamic upfield disruptor Reddick, but they also have an all-around ace in the middle, T.J. Edwards. Edwards does everything well, from filling in against the run, pressuring the QB and covering tight ends.
“Obviously with Mahomes and what he does in terms of extending plays it’s tough, but it’s been a strength of ours all year, getting teams behind the sticks, getting them into known passing downs," Edwards told Sporting News. "With the d-linemen doing what they do, we really have a focus on first and second down to put us position to make big plays on third down.”
The ideal blend of experience
The Eagles also are loaded with venerable veterans such as Graham, Hargrave, Cox and Suh. Slay and Bradberry are the league's savviest cornerback duo. Reddick and Sweat have provided more explosive energy, while youth serves Philadelphia well with Edwards and undrafted rookie safety Reed Blankenship.
Not only do the Eagles' profile as having the necessary positional strengths at every level of their defense, there's great cohesion and communication under coordinator Jonathan Gannon. That leads to having a true complete defense, something all those other MVP-stopping teams also had.
Although Slay knows it's a three-phase game, he wasn't shy to paraphrase the long-time adage about championship teams.
“It always comes down to the defense," Slay said. "Defenses win games.”
Mahomes can be magical, but he can also be human against a top defense, as already witnessed with a different iteration of the Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55. The Eagles have the talent and blueprint to do the same ini their own way. Remembering the past, the NFL MVP is doomed to repeat it.
