Sam Darnold and the Panthers will try to keep their playoff hopes alive on Sunday when they play Tom Brady and the Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium (1 p.m. ET, FOX). Carolina has won three out of its past four games and is only one game behind the Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay snapped its two-game losing streak with an overtime win over the Cardinals on Christmas night.
The last time these two divisional foes played each other, the Panthers defeated the Bucs 21-3 in Carolina in Week 7. Carolina has not played well on the road this season (1-5), which may work in the Buccaneers' favor on Sunday. However, Tampa Bay struggled to defeat a lowly Cardinals squad and imploded a couple of weeks ago at home against the Bengals. No one knows what to expect in this matchup, but either way, it's a must-win for both teams.
WEEK 17 NFL PICKS: ATS | Straight up
Below, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Panthers-Buccaneers, including the updated odds from Sports Interaction, tips, and our prediction for this Week 17 matchup.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers odds for NFL Week 17
Betting odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
- Spread: Buccaneers -4
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Moneyline: Panthers +161, Buccaneers -193
The Buccaneers are four-point favorites heading into Sunday's pivotal game, but they've been tough to trust against the spread this season. Tampa Bay is a league-worst 3-11-1 ATS and 0-6-1 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the total is set at 40.5 points, which is not surprising as the Bucs have struggled to score and the first game between these teams saw just 24 combined points.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers all-time series
The Panthers surprisingly lead the all-time series against the Buccaneers with a record of 25-19. However, the Bucs have won four of the past five meetings. The last time the Panthers defeated the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay was in Week 8 of the 2017 season. Cam Newton and Jameis Winston were the starting quarterbacks in that contest.
Three trends to know
-- The Buccaneers are 0-5-1 against the spread when listed as a home favorite and 2-4 ATS after a win this season.
-- The Panthers are 1-5 straight up on the road but 3-2 ATS as a road underdog this season, according to Bryan Zarpentine of BetQL.
-- Carolina has thrived as an underdog this season (8-3 ATS), posting the fourth-best cover percentage in the NFL.
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Three things to watch for
Can the Panthers' running game have success against the Bucs' defense?
The Panthers are coming off their best offensive performance this season, posting 37 points and 320 rushing yards against the Lions last week. D'Onta Foreman led the way, rushing for a game-high 165 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries, and Chuba Hubbard added 125 yards on 12 carries. For the Panthers to win on Sunday afternoon, they will need Foreman and Hubbard to play significant roles again.
The two running backs could have some success against a Bucs' defense that's allowed 120.3 rushing yards per game this season and 127.7 rushing yards over the past three games. When Carolina and Tampa Bay met up for the first time in Week 7, the Panthers had 173 rushing yards and a touchdown. If the Panthers can make solid gains on first and second down by running the ball, it will make life easier for Sam Darnold and the passing game.
Which Tom Brady will show up?
The last time we saw Brady and the Bucs play at home, the Bengals came back and cruised to a 34-23 win at Raymond James Stadium a couple of weeks ago. Brady has not had the best season under center but has been better at home than on the road. This season, Brady is completing 68 percent of his passes for 2,463 yards, 14 touchdowns, and four interceptions at home. This is a complete 180 from the Brady we see on the road where he's completing 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,715 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions.
Who steps up for the Panthers in an elimination game scenario?
If the Panthers want to keep their playoff hopes alive on Sunday afternoon, they will need someone other than the running backs to step up. Moore could be the difference-maker after scoring his third touchdown in the past four weeks against the Lions last week. Over the past four games, he's posted 14 receptions (22 targets) for 259 yards and three touchdowns. This is a good sign for the Panthers, as they will need the veteran receiver to replicate his Week 7 performance against Tampa Bay when he had seven receptions (10 targets) for 69 yards and a touchdown.
Stat that matters
42.9. This is the Panthers' third-down conversion percentage on defense. One of the major keys in this game will be Carolina's ability to apply pressure to Brady and get Tampa Bay's offense off the field. Tampa has struggled on third down this season, only converting at a 37.6-percent clip (21st in the NFL). Over the past three games, it's even lower (31.1 percent).
Panthers vs. Buccaneers prediction
We know that the Panthers have not been good on the road, and the Buccaneers have been underwhelming for most of this season. However, experience matters the most at this time of the year, which favors the Bucs. Tampa Bay will somehow find a way to get the win on Sunday, even if it takes overtime to do so. Brady will continue his solid play at home while Tampa's defense will do just enough to hold Darnold and Co. at bay.
PREDICTION: Buccaneers 20, Panthers 18. The Panthers will cover (+4), and the total will go UNDER (40.5).
