Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will try to win their third-straight game on Christmas against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium (1 p.m. ET, FOX). The Packers have played well to start the month, but they are still on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have lost three-straight games but are still holding onto the final playoff spot in the AFC.
This season has not gone well for Rodgers and Co. after being one of the top teams in the NFC last season. One of the reasons for the Packers' struggles is their play on the road this season (2-5). Green Bay has lost four out of its past five games, with its lone win coming against the Bears in Week 13. If they want to give themselves a shot to make the playoffs, the Packers must win on Christmas and in their last two regular-season games against the Vikings and Lions.
Speaking of the playoffs, the Dolphins are barely hanging on after losing by three points to the Bills last week. Miami hasn't looked great over the past few weeks, and even with a favorite schedule down the stretch, it can't afford to blow a home game against a sub-.500 team.
WEEK 16 NFL PICKS: ATS | Straight up
Below, we'll give you all the information you need before placing a wager on Packers-Dolphins, including the updated odds from Sports Interaction, tips, and our prediction for this Week 16 matchup.
Packers vs. Dolphins odds for NFL Week 16
Betting odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
- Spread: Dolphins -4
- Over/Under: 49.5
- Moneyline: Packers +166; Dolphins -199
Even though the Dolphins are on a three-game losing streak, they are still the favorite heading into Sunday's game. Miami has been decent against the spread this season (7-7) but is 4-2 ATS at home. Lastly, the total is set at 49.5, which makes sense given the respective strengths and weaknesses of the Packers' defense and Dolphins' offense.
Packers vs. Dolphins all-time series
The Dolphins lead the all-time series over the Packers with a record of 10-5. However, the Packers have won four out of the past five meetings. The last time these two teams played each other was in Week 10 of 2018 when the Packers defeated the Dolphins 31-12 at Lambeau Field. Aaron Rodgers threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns, while Aaron Jones added 172 total yards and two TDs on 18 touches.
Three trends to know
-- The Packers are 3-2 against the spread and 2-3 straight up on the money line as an underdog this season, according to Bryan Zarpentine of BetQL.
-- Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is 23-8 straight up on the money line in the second half of the season, according to BetQL.
-- Miami is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite but 1-4 ATS after a loss this season.
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Three things to watch for
Can the Dolphins' running game have another big game on Christmas?
Even though they lost last weekend to the Bills, the Dolphins rediscovered their running game with Raheem Mostert and Salvon Ahmed. Mostert had a season-high 136 yards on 17 carries, while Ahmed had 43 yards and a touchdown on six carries. Success on the ground only furthers open up the passing game for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If Jeff Wilson Jr. (hip) is back in the fold this week, he and Mostert should not have any issues with the Packers' defense allowing 148.9 rushing yards per game this season.
Aaron Rodgers vs. the Dolphins' defense
Rodgers is coming off a solid performance against the Rams on Monday night, completing 73.3 percent of his passes for 229 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. It wasn't one of Rodgers' best performances, but it was good enough to get the Packers a win. Now, he will face a Dolphins' defense that has struggled against the pass this season, allowing 246.3 yards per game (sixth most in the NFL). Miami has also given up 1.7 touchdown passes per game (sixth most). Rodgers will have multiple opportunities to get Christian Watson, Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, and Robert Tonyan involved in the passing game.
Can the Dolphins limit the penalties?
If the Dolphins want to snap their losing skid on Christmas, they must limit their self-inflicted mistakes. For the season, Miami is averaging 6.4 penalties per game (eighth most), and over the past three games, that's bumped up to 7.3 penalties/game (second highest). Last week, the Dolphins had eight penalties for 51 yards but were able to overcome them and keep it close against the Bills. Playing clean football will go a long way toward helping the Dolphins win and cover.
Stat that matters
185.1. This is the Packers' passing yards per game allowed. Even though Green Bay has given up 22.4 points per game, their pass defense has been solid. Green Bay has given up just 158.3 passing yards per game in the past three games, but keep in mind that the past three quarterbacks Green Bay faced were Baker Mayfield, Justin Fields, and Jalen Hurts. Hurts is the best passer among that group, but the Eagles simply ran all over the Packers a few weeks ago. Over the past few weeks, Tagovailoa struggled against the 49ers and Chargers but started to figure it out against the Bills. The young QB is going to have hit on those chunk plays when available but also take the check-down passes, too.
Packers vs. Dolphins prediction
The Packers have recently found life again, making them a live underdog. However, Miami looked better in their loss against the Bills and should be able to run on this Green Bay defense. If Mostert and Co. can be successful on the ground, Waddle and Hill will have more room to operate and rip off some big plays. This game means more to the Dolphins at this point of the season, and having the home-field advantage will push them over the top.
PREDICTION: Dolphins 27, Packers 21. The Dolphins will cover (-4), and the total will go UNDER (49.5).
