The San Francisco 49ers don’t have a great track record of playing at home for the NFC championship game. San Francisco will host its record 10th NFC championship game on Sunday, but they are the only franchise that has hosted multiple NFC title games with a losing record at home.
The 49ers are 4-5 in the Bay Area, and they have lost the last two NFC championship games they have played at home. San Francisco hasn’t advanced to the Super Bowl at home since beating the Dallas Cowboys for the NFC title back in 1995, and that was the last time this storied franchise has won the Super Bowl. That has the Niners hoping that history will repeat itself with a win against the Green Bay Packers this week.
As always, there are numerous prop betting options available for every NFL game, and here are some of the more notable player props.
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Aaron Rodgers over/under 237.5 passing yards
Rodgers threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns last week against Seattle, averaging 9.0 YPA. This will be his 18th playoff start on Sunday, and the future Hall of Fame quarterback has thrown for over 4,700 yards in those starts, averaging 7.6 YPA over that period.
He only has one receiver that he trusts, but Rodgers is so talented, that it largely doesn’t matter. Rodgers targeted Davante Adams on 11 of his 27 passes last week against the Seahawks, and Adams responded with eight catches for 160 yards and two touchdowns.
That exclusivity is a concern this week against San Francisco though. The 49ers have the best pass defense in the NFL, and Richard Sherman has been a lockdown cornerback throughout the decade. No other wide receiver caught more than one pass last week, and Rodgers has largely preferred to throw to Jimmy Graham or one of his running backs over players like Geronimo Allison, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Allen Lazard. That makes the under a shrewd play.
Jimmy Garoppolo over/under 248.5 passing yards
After wondering what might be for the last three years, we are finally seeing Jimmy G live up to his potential. Kyle Shanahan’s offense has given Garoppolo the opportunity to shine, and he has taken full advantage. He nearly threw for 4,000 yards this year, and he has weapons he trusts in George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Emmanuel Sanders.
San Francisco is a run-first team though. San Francisco ran the ball on 47 of 66 plays against Minnesota last week, and Shanahan will continue to pound the ball if he is having success moving the ball on the ground against Green Bay’s front seven. The 49ers want to limit the number of possessions that Aaron Rodgers has to make magic happen, and the Pack have had some trouble stopping the run this year.
When these teams met earlier this season, the 49ers averaged 5.1 YPC, but Garoppolo finished with 253 passing yards. He averaged a whopping 12.7 YPA though, and that’s unlikely to happen again so take the under.
Aaron Jones over/under 65.5 rushing yards
On paper, the 49ers don’t have a great run defense. However, the return of Kwon Alexander gave San Francisco a spark last week, and the Niners completely snuffed out Minnesota’s ground game. Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook didn’t get much going against this front seven, and it’s hard to imagine Aaron Jones having a lot of success after the Vikings’ run game was stonewalled.
Davante Adams over/under 85.5 receiving yards
Although Adams missed four games due to injury, his 127 targets in the regular season were 71 more than the closest receiver on Green Bay. Rodgers is always looking to get the ball to the veteran receiver, and it’s very likely that he will have more targets than any other player in either game on Sunday. Although Sherman will be guarding him, Adams will make some plays, and he was targeted 12 times the first time these teams met this season. That makes the over the right play.
George Kittle over/under 75.5 receiving yards
Kittle has been outstanding this season, and he had a huge day against the Packers back in November. He is a matchup nightmare for any team, and the Packers are going to have a difficult time slowing him down. Kittle is dealing with a sore ankle that has limited him in practice, but he is expected to show no signs of injury on gameday, making the over the choice.