My favorite week on the NFL calendar (other than playoff time) is upon us. And leading the way for Week 1 drama is, appropriately, the defending-champion Eagles and their quarterback situation. Super Bowl hero Nick Foles will start over franchise QB Carson Wentz, still recovering from last season's knee injury, against the Falcons in the Thursday-night opener.
I'm here to remind everyone that the best laid plans for Wentz to reclaim the starting role at some point this season can change if Foles plays well enough.
Doug Pederson’s cranky attitude when asked about the subject is just a reminder that NFL coaches hate QB controversies. The coach says Wentz is "close" to being game-ready, but the 25-year-old has not yet been fully cleared by team doctors. Philadelphia players, however, say Wentz has looked great in practice when splitting first-team reps with the 29-year-old Foles. Wentz's mobility reportedly has improved each week, and his arm strength is up to his normal standard.
I saw a similar scenario unfold with my 1998 Vikings team, which had the league's best record at 15-1 and finished one game shy of the Super Bowl. The opening-day starting QB on that team, Brad Johnson, wound up watching backup Randall Cunningham lead the team en route to an MVP season.
Johnson started the first two games before a sprained ankle sidelined him for several weeks. By the time Johnson recovered, Cunningham was on such a great roll with a tremendous supporting cast — led by Hall of Fame receivers Cris Carter and Randy Moss — that coach Dennis Green kept him in the lineup the rest of the year. We wound up trading Johnson to Washington after the season.
I'm not suggesting Eagles general manager Howie Roseman will trade Wentz if Foles plays so well that he remains the starter for the duration of this season. This situation is different.
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Johnson was a very good quarterback in Minnesota, and he went on to be a Pro Bowler in Washington and a Super Bowl champion in Tampa Bay. But for us, he was a ninth-round draft pick and two-year starter, not a second overall pick who the team traded a boatload of picks to move up and select. Johnson also was not considered an MVP candidate as Wentz was last season before he tore his ACL in Week 14.
The Eagles are doing the right thing in not rushing back their long-term QB. But pro sports are all about "what have you done for me lately." The most intriguing question surrounding the team is how well Foles must play — or how many games Philadelphia must win — in order for Foles to remain the starter once Wentz is cleared.
After their tough opener, the Eagles’ next three games are winnable — at the Jameis Winston-less Bucs, home against the Colts and at the Titans. Then the schedule gets tougher when the Vikings come to town for an NFC title game rematch, followed by a Sunday night road game against the division-rival Giants. The second half of Philadelphia’s season includes five NFC East matchups and tough road games in New Orleans and Los Angeles (Rams).
Any two-game losing streak could spell the end of Foles' reign as starter, and odds are we'll see Wentz starting at some point this season.
But what if Foles is playing like the 2017 postseason version of himself and the Eagles are playing like that 15-1 Vikings team?
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Another interesting part of the Foles story is the restructured contract he signed in March. The deal includes a $250,000 incentive for every game in which he plays at least 33 percent of the offensive snaps, plus another $250,000 if he plays that much and the Eagles win.
For a team that’s tight against the cap, there's a financial incentive to get Wentz back into the lineup as soon as he’s deemed healthy enough.
With the window of opportunity wide open for the Eagles, I don't see team owner Jeff Lurie or Roseman telling Pederson not to play Foles in order to save money. But it opens the door for conspiracy theorists to speculate if or when a change is made.
Fans in Philly might be concerned about Foles' lackluster preseason (no touchdowns in 10 drives). Roseman and Pederson understand that lack of production came with limited game planning, the absence of several starters and the usual lack of interest among veteran players in preseason games.
More relevant in regard to Foles: In his last meaningful game, he threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns and also caught a TD pass as the Super Bowl MVP against New England.
Roseman and Pederson are in a great position with two proven quarterbacks. They surely feel fortunate to be so well fortified at the game's most important position. They're also lucky that both Wentz and Foles seem to be team players and appear to have their egos under control.
Still, it's only natural that both players want to lead a Super Bowl contender that has stayed virtually intact from last year's title team. The Eagles actually could be even stronger this year with the return of injured offensive stalwarts Jason Peters and Darren Sproles, plus the addition of defensive end Michael Bennett to an already stout unit.
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The bottom line: Philly’s hierarchy would have preferred to have Wentz ready to start the opener. ACL tears usually require 9-12 months recovery time, and Monday will be the nine-month mark. Wentz also tore his LCL, which could be a factor in lengthening his rehab period.
With that in mind, and with the possibility of Foles continuing to play like his 2017 playoff self, Wentz very well could take a seat all season long.
Jeff Diamond is a former president of the Titans and former vice president/general manager of the Vikings. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year in 1998. Diamond is currently a business and sports consultant who also does broadcast and online media work. He makes speaking appearances to corporate/civic groups and college classes on Negotiation and Sports Business/Sports Management. He is the former chairman and CEO of The Ingram Group. Follow Jeff on Twitter: @jeffdiamondNFL.
