The NFL is going all in with the NFC for its three-course offering on Thanksgiving in 2018. And this year, November weather will not be an issue, as all three divisional matchups between classic rivals in the North, East and South will be played indoors.
That’s a pretty good way to kick off Week 12, but what solid favorites will come through, and who is headed for a non-familial grind?
Here’s our fearless forecast for Thursday’s Turkey Day action. (Betting lines courtesy of Bovada)
NFL Thanksgiving game picks against the spread
(All times ET)
Chicago Bears (-4) at Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 p.m., CBS
This might feel like a Bear trap after Chicago's emotional win at home over Minnesota, now playing on a short week in the division on the road. But then the Lions will be without their key offensive player, running back Kerryon Johnson. That leaves little to help Matthew Stafford survive Khalil Mack and the Bears' pass rush.
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On the other side, Mitchell Trubisky will find favorable matchups against Detroit’s defense, even with Darius Slay playing in this game. Chicago will spoil the tradition for the host and continue its strong march toward its first NFC North title in eight years.
PICK: Bears win 30-20 and cover the spread.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m., FOX
The Redskins will be starting Colt McCoy at quarterback, which isn't much of a drop-off from Alex Smith in terms of the game plan. They will still be all about power running with Adrian Peterson and complementing that with a conservative passing game, slowing the game down.
The problem is that plays into the hands of Leighton Vander Esch and a swarming Cowboys front seven, which will carry over the momentum from the Eagles and Falcons wins. On the other side, Washington’s attention on Ezekiel Elliott's running will set up Dak Prescott to pick apart the secondary with play-action shots downfield against weak outside coverage. McCoy and Peterson will keep it somewhat close, but not close enough.
PICK: Cowboys win 24-17 but fail to cover the spread.
PLAYOFF PICTURE: Cowboys have new life
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
The Saints are coming off consecutive blowout wins outside of the division. Now they would love nothing more than to end the hated Falcons' wild-card playoff hopes.
New Orleans has its eyes on playing in Atlanta for Super Bowl 53, and this game will not be an obstacle to the No. 1 seed. But Matt Ryan is playing well, and the Falcons are desperate and ready to bring out their best to try to stay alive. The Saints will win comfortably at home, but 13 points is too big of a spread to take. These teams know each other well and typically play exciting, close games.
PICK: Saints win 34-24 but fail to cover the spread.
Last week’s record straight up: 5-7
Last week’s record against the spread: 4-6
Season record straight up: 93-52
Season record against the spread: 67-74
