There are two types of teams in the NFL: Those who have franchise quarterbacks, and those who think they do.
It's hard for NFL franchises to find franchise passers. Regardless of how offense-ified the NFL is now, the window for teams to find out if they have Their Guy are smaller than ever.
Just look at Sam Darnold: Taken No. 3 overall in 2018, Darnold lasted three years with the Jets before he was traded, then stunk up the joint in Carolina in Year 4. Now, Baker Mayfield, No. 1 overall pick that same year by the Browns, is QB1 on Carolina's depth chart. What a tangled web we weave.
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So, like we said. There are teams that have franchise passers, and those that think they do. But, all 32 starters fit into one of five, neat buckets:
- The Locks: The surefire, no-doubt franchise quarterbacks;
- The Wannabes: The guys who are just a tick below, and the young guns who want to get there;
- The Ascenders: The QBs who are on their way up, but need to show a bit more;
- The Make-or-Breaks: The passers who could see their starting prospects end with a bad year;
- The Stopgaps: The Band-Aids of the NFL quarterbacking ranks.
Here's where all 32 passers fit in:
The Locks
Tom Brady, Buccaneers
There's only one question left for Brady: How much longer?
Brady has a shiny Fox Sports contract waiting for him after he announces his retirement (again), and the fact that he did already retire and un-retire probably sheds a little bit of light on his future. If he's expecting a storybook ending in which he hoists the Lombardi Trophy one last time, it might not come in 2022. Or 2023. But, he's not going anywhere until he retires.
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
A return to basics should help a Chiefs offense that was a little less explosive than usual in 2021. Mahomes didn't look good for a large stretch to start the season, but they still made it all the way to the AFC Championship game.
The Chiefs quarterback is still one of the baddest dudes in the NFL. The ending of the AFC divisional matchup between Kansas City and Buffalo should provide enough proof of that. With a refreshed WR corps featuring JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore, it'll be worth watching how Mahomes acclimates to the new room.
Justin Herbert, Chargers
The only thing that may hold Justin Herbert back now is his coaching.
Herbert proved that his 2020 rookie season was no fluke with a dazzling 2021 season, improving on essentially every category from his rookie season, but Brandon Staley's in-game decisions tanked the Chargers fairly often, including in their final game of the 2022 season.
If Staley can figure out how to manage the game from the sideline, the sky is the limit for the Bolts as long as Herbert is slinging it, even in a stacked AFC West.
Joe Burrow, Bengals
The nerds don't like hearing about intangibles, but Burrow has them in spades. Helping guide the formerly hapless Bengals to Super Bowl 56 was equal parts a product of his on-field production as well as what he's meant to the locker room in two seasons.
Burrow has ice in his veins and his college chemistry with Ja'Marr Chase was rekindled on the NFL level, making him of the league's best in short order.
Josh Allen, Bills
Allen is probably the most unique single talent in the NFL given his size, mobility and uncanny instincts. His ascent from project to proven to MVP-caliber passer is 1-of-1 in NFL history.
The Bills went from dysfunction to Super Bowl contenders under Allen's watch, and that's not a train that seems to be stopping, let alone slowing, anytime soon.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
While Rodgers' relationship with the Packers had been slightly contentious for the better part of 2021, he followed it up with an MVP season, his second in a row.
While Rodgers is still searching for that elusive second championship, the Packers have been knocking on the door for a few years under Matt LaFleur. That should bode well for the future (and Rodgers' new deal).
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Jackson's sticky contract situation makes this a little bit less locked-in than the rest of the passers in this tier, but it feels like a deal will get done before Week 1 of the 2022 season.
Jackson is another unicorn in the NFL, and it seems to be a perfect marriage between offensive scheme under Greg Roman and his talents. While the 2021 season was a little bit of a down year for Jackson, it's a safe bet to see him regain MVP form this year.
Matthew Stafford, Rams
Stafford's 2021 season should leave zero doubt as his status as a franchise passer, though many have tried to denigrate it.
Like a lot of the other passers in this tier, the marriage between Stafford and Sean McVay's offense is a perfect fit. Obviously, they parlayed that success all the way to a Super Bowl win in their home building last season.
As long as Stafford stays healthy — or navigates his nagging injuries as well as he did last season — then there's a good chance the Rams can stay in the contender conversation again this season.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
There's a certain curiosity surrounding Dak Prescott: There's no denying that he's among the league's best passers, but exactly where? There's certainly room for debate.
The Cowboys were seemingly hesitant to give Prescott a big-money deal, but they ultimately did, and he responded by giving Dallas one of his best seasons. Prescott slips into this tier thanks to his contract and the organization's faith in him. He's not going anywhere anytime soon.
The Wannabes
Ryan Tannehill, Titans
Tannehill's resurgence with the Titans lasted a grand total of a year and a half. With injuries to key skill position guys in 2021, Tannehill threw 21 touchdowns to 14 interceptions and came up short in Tennessee's playoff matchup against the Bengals.
It sounds like Tannehill's tenure in the Music City is starting to wind down: With Malik Willis No. 2 on the depth chart and already making plays in preseason (no, preseason doesn't really matter), unless Tannehill ups his game to 2020 levels, then it might be his last season in a Titans uniform.
MORE: Will Malik Willis start for the Titans in 2022?
Russell Wilson, Broncos
Russell Wilson is an excellent quarterback, but truth be told, he's coming off a down year with Seattle (in which he dealt with a finger injury) and has been fairly inconsistent in his career.
New scenery and a new offense that doesn't emphasize the run like Seattle's did could push Wilson back into that top tier of quarterbacks in the league. Wilson is entering the penultimate year of his deal with no contract extension in sight.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings
Kirk Cousins has continually felt like the guy that the Vikings have turned to because there are no better options, but they're too scared to move on.
Being stuck in quarterback purgatory isn't ideal, but Cousins has certainly played above your average quarterback, but not quite to the level of top-10 QB. That's fine, generally speaking.
With new head coach Kevin O'Connell on board, the Vikings' offense will have a different look this year, and hopefully that means Cousins will be able to push his team toward a late January run.
Zach Wilson, Jets
Reports from Jets training camp seemed to indicate that Wilson was stacking positive days, but unfortunately, he'll miss a little bit of game time before the NFL world gets to see if he's new and/or improved.
Wilson's traits are electric: He's got a massive arm, good mobility and enough confidence to make your mom's best friend blush. That said, he needs to learn to play within the offense and stay healthy to be considered an answer for New York.
Wilson has some company in this tier from the 2021 draft class: Trey Lance and Trevor Lawrence also make the "Wannabes" list, as each quarterback has a lot more to do and prove before they're considered franchise hopefuls.
Trey Lance, 49ers
Lance has been given the keys to the kingdom with the team unofficially moving on from Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason.
Lance is still a relative unknown, considering he only played in two games and took 179 total snaps in 2021. His limitless physical talent could add a lot to Kyle Shanahan's offense, but the operating term here is "could." We'll see how Lance adjusts to the NFL game, and how his head coach adjusts his scheme to fit the talented passer.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
A lot went wrong with Lawrence's 2022 season. Urban Meyer was at the forefront of that, and injuries to skill position players didn't help. Lawrence, though, didn't play up to his wunderkind billing as the No. 1 overall pick in 2021.
The Jags had to pay a premium to surround Lawrence with a little bit more talent to help (the Christian Kirk deal the most egregious), and hired noted QB whisperer Doug Pederson as head coach to get the most out of him.
Jacksonville's offense still needs work, but it should be improved enough that Lawrence can showcase a little bit more of why people slapped him with the "generational" label.
Derek Carr, Raiders
The debate surrounding Derek Carr's standing as a passer in the league is only going to get more obnoxious this upcoming season, considering the AFC West is loaded with quarterback talent.
He'll be judged solely against Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, fair or not. Carr has only ever eclipsed the 30-touchdown mark once in his career, way back in 2015. Reuniting with Fresno State running mate Davante Adams should help the Raiders' offense along.
The Ascenders
Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Murray's new contract tells you that the Cards feel some type of way about Murray. The specific type of way is pretty unclear, though.
The Cardinals' financial commitment to Murray was substantial, but the contract notably came with some interesting triggers, including the now infamous and removed "independent study clause."
Franchise passers shouldn't have to be told to study film, and Murray clearly took offense to the idea that he was an ill-prepared quarterback. Still, the fact that the organization felt the need to implement something so drastic in the deal means that there's a little bit more there than both sides are letting on.
Murray is entering his fourth year in the league, and the combination of mobility and throwing ability are perfect for 2022 NFL. But, he's going to have to earn some more late-season wins to reach that next level.
Mac Jones, Patriots
The pairing between Jones and the Patriots offense seems to be a good one — but there's a small catch entering the 2022 season.
Reports out of Patriots camp have painted the New England offense as less-than-pretty: With Matt Patricia calling the plays (but decidedly not the offensive coordinator), there may be an adjustment period with a new scheme.
Jones may not have been imbued with the physical gifts of other passers in his draft class, but a promising rookie season means the Patriots might not have had to wait too long before finding their next franchise passer.
Davis Mills, Texans
Mills was a surprising development in a tumultuous 2021 season for the Texans, and realistically, may belong in a tier below.
At one point in his amateur career, Mills was considered to be a No. 1 overall-type player. Injuries robbed him of that, and the Texans may have gotten something of a steal in the third round of the 2021 draft.
Mills has a lot more work to do before being considered a franchise-type passer, but navigating a noisy 2021 season with minimal skill position talent as a third-round pick should give Houston a little bit more faith.
The make-or-breaks
Jalen Hurts, Eagles
Hurts is entering the third year of his deal with the Eagles, and did some very good work with Nick Sirianni in his first year at the helm, but that didn't stop Philly brass from looking at upgrades this offseason.
Yes, those upgrades were reportedly Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson, two of the game's better quarterbacks. But a team that has faith in its quarterback doesn't go shopping around for upgrades.
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins
Tyreek Hill talking up Tua Tagovailoa pretty consistently since his arrival in Miami should either be comforting for the third-year QB or a sign that Hill is still convincing himself of Tagovailoa's talents.
Dealing with injuries throughout his career, with a new head coach in Mike McDaniels who should find ways to get Hill and Jaylen Waddle involved, Tagovailoa will be fresh out of excuses if he doesn't take the next step this season.
Daniel Jones, Giants
There are more questions than answers in regards to Daniel Jones:
- If he goes out and plays very well, do you risk extending him? Is the franchise tag an option?
- If he goes out and plays average, do the Giants play themselves out of position to draft a new passer in 2022?
- If he goes out and plays poorly, do you regret not trading him and starting anew for 2022?
Jones' turnover and injury issues, coupled with learning yet another new offense — his fourth in as many seasons — mean the deck is stacked against him this season.
MORE: What Daniel Jones needs to do to keep his job as Giants' starting QB
Carson Wentz, Commanders
The Wentz reclamation project didn't exactly go well in Indianapolis, but could an NFC East return do the trick?
The Commanders selected North Carolina's Sam Howell in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft, but he doesn't pose an immediate threat to Wentz. During his tenure in Washington, Ron Rivera has seemingly put significantly less emphasis on the QB spot than he probably should be, and that continued with the confusing Wentz trade.
Justin Fields, Bears
Fields landing on this tier is more of a make-or-break year for him on the Bears, not for his career prospects.
What's working against him in Chicago, though, is that the regime that drafted him is no longer there. New general manager Ryan Poles inherited a decent quarterback situation; that is, if Fields turns some of his 2021 flashes into more consistency.
If the Bears are horrendous, Fields looks middling and Chicago has an opportunity to draft a quarterback, come the 2023 NFL Draft, there's a good chance that he could start next season in another uniform. If he plays up to his potential, then the Bears will be in good shape at quarterback moving forward.
MORE: The best-case scenario for Justin Fields in 2022
Jared Goff, Lions
With a revamped wide receiver room and an offensive line that could be one of the league's best if healthy, Goff is entering a pivotal year of his career.
The Lions opted not to take a passer in a pretty dry but intriguing 2022 draft class, instead drafting Jameson Williams to give the wide receiver room a much-needed and explosive facelift. (Sounds dangerous.)
The Stopgaps
Mitchell Trubisky, Steelers
Trubisky is getting his next, and potentially last, opportunity to start in the NFL. Make no mistake, unless something goes wrong with Kenny Pickett this year, the 2022 first-round pick will be on the field sooner rather than later.
Matt Ryan, Colts
The Colts have somewhat become the last stop for veteran QBs before they move on or hit the bingo halls in retirement: Philip Rivers in 2020, Carson Wentz in 2021 and now, Matt Ryan.
Trading for Ryan was a smart, savvy move by Indianapolis, and his 2021 season showed he has more than a bit left in the tank. But, with his age (37) and his contract, Ryan is nearing the end of his career. It's pretty clear, though, that he likely won't be on the Colts beyond 2023.
Marcus Mariota, Falcons
Replacing Ryan in Atlanta is Marcus Mariota (and rookie Desmond Ridder). Mariota has a very brief history with head coach Arthur Smith: Mariota was benched in favor of Ryan Tannehill during Smith's first season as offensive coordinator in Tennessee in 2019.
With Ridder behind him on the depth chart, Mariota's two-year deal feels like "one year and we'll see," especially considering the minimal dead cap incurred if he's cut after the year.
Baker Mayfield, Panthers
Mayfield could parlay a good season with the Panthers into a big contract next offseason, whether it's with Carolina or elsewhere. For now, he's on a one-year deal and has an opportunity to cash in if he plays well this season.
He's already cleared one (very low) hurdle, beating out Sam Darnold for the starting job. Next up: He'll have to stay healthy.
Jameis Winston, Saints
Winston's ACL injury cut short a promising season with the Saints, but New Orleans would do well to figure out its long-term passer situation. The first year of the Dennis Allen era will probably provide more questions than answers, but the biggest at the forefront will be Winston.
Jacoby Brissett, Browns
Brissett is keeping the seat warm in Cleveland for the suspended Deshaun Watson. The journeyman passer has played well in spurts throughout his career, and no one will expect him as anything more than a spot starter in the league now.
Drew Lock, Seahawks
Whether it's Lock or Geno Smith, the Seahawks trading Russell Wilson without a clear plan in place is baffling. Maybe the organization feels that Lock will ascend, or more likely, that this year is a tank year to put them in position to draft another passer.
